地区等级升级后的天然气管道定量风险评价技术
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摘要
随着我国经济社会建设的快速发展,部分在役天然气管道所通过的地区逐渐由过去人口稀少的一级、二级地区升级为人口密集的三级、四级地区,管道失效的风险大幅度增加,急需建立相应的定量风险评价技术以确定管道的实际风险水平。为此,提出了基于可靠性的天然气管道定量风险评价流程:首先采用基于可靠性的极限状态方法计算评价管段的失效概率、采用管道失效后果模型计算管道的失效风险,并依据计算结果对地区等级升级后的天然气管道进行定量风险评价;然后引入风险可接受准则,判定地区等级升级后天然气管道的个体风险水平和社会风险水平;进而有针对性地制订风险消减、防护措施。实际应用结果表明:该技术不仅可以实现天然气管道失效风险的定量计算和评价,而且还能够对不同风险消减、防护措施进行效果检查及对比,在保障天然气管道风险可接受的前提下,实现天然气管道风险控制管理技术性和经济性的最优化。
With the fast development of social and economic construction in China, the areas through which some in-service gas pipelines run are gradually upgraded from Class 1 and 2 areas of sparse population to Class 3 and 4 areas of dense population, so the failure risk of pipelines is increased significantly. Thus, it is necessary to develop the corresponding quantitative risk assessment technology so as to determine the actual risk level of pipelines. In this paper, the reliability-based quantitative risk assessment process for natural gas pipelines was put forward. Firstly, calculate the failure probability by means of the reliability-based ultimate limit state, calculate the pipeline failure risk by using the pipeline failure consequence model, and conduct quantitative risk assessment on the natural gas pipelines in the upgraded areas according to the calculation results. Secondly, introduce the risk acceptance criteria to discriminate individual risk and social risk levels of natural gas pipelines after location class upgrading. And thirdly, formulate risk reduction and control measures correspondingly. The actual application results indicate that by virtue of this technology, not only can the failure risk of natural gas pipelines be calculated and evaluated quantitatively, but the effects of risk reduction and control measures can be checked and compared. And thus, the gas pipeline risk control and management technology is technically and economically optimized while the gas pipeline risk is kept in an acceptable range.
With the fast development of social and economic construction in China, the areas through which some in-service gas pipelines run are gradually upgraded from Class 1 and 2 areas of sparse population to Class 3 and 4 areas of dense population, so the failure risk of pipelines is increased significantly. Thus, it is necessary to develop the corresponding quantitative risk assessment technology so as to determine the actual risk level of pipelines. In this paper, the reliability-based quantitative risk assessment process for natural gas pipelines was put forward. Firstly, calculate the failure probability by means of the reliability-based ultimate limit state, calculate the pipeline failure risk by using the pipeline failure consequence model, and conduct quantitative risk assessment on the natural gas pipelines in the upgraded areas according to the calculation results. Secondly, introduce the risk acceptance criteria to discriminate individual risk and social risk levels of natural gas pipelines after location class upgrading. And thirdly, formulate risk reduction and control measures correspondingly. The actual application results indicate that by virtue of this technology, not only can the failure risk of natural gas pipelines be calculated and evaluated quantitatively, but the effects of risk reduction and control measures can be checked and compared. And thus, the gas pipeline risk control and management technology is technically and economically optimized while the gas pipeline risk is kept in an acceptable range.
引文
[1]董绍华,王东营,费凡,安宇,董秦龙,周永涛.管道地区等级升级与公共安全风险管控[J].油气储运,2014,33(11):1164-1170.Dong Shaohua,Wang Dongying,Fei Fan,An Yu,Dong Qinlong&Zhou Yongtao.Upgrading of pipeline regions and control of public security risks[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(11):1164-1170.
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[5]董绍华.管道完整性技术与管理[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2007.Dong Shaohua.Pipeline integrity technology and management[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press,2007.
[6]王其磊,程五一,张丽丽,戴联双,张华兵.管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J].油气储运,2011,30(7):494-496.Wang Qilei,Cheng Wuyi,Zhang Lili,Dai Lianshuang&Zhang Huabing.Pipeline quantitative risk assessment technology and its application[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2011,30(7):494-496.
[7]中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司.油气输送管道完整性管理规范:GB 32167-2015[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.Petro China Pipeline Company.Oil and gas pipeline integrity management specification:GB 32167-2015[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2015.
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[9]张圣柱,吴宗之.油气管道风险评价与安全管理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2016.Zhang Shengzhu&Wu Zongzhi.Risk assessment and safety management of oil and gas pipeline[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2016.
[10]张华兵.基于失效库的在役天然气长输管道定量风险评价技术研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2013.Zhang Huabing.Study on quantitative risk assessment of in-service long-distance natural gas pipeline based on failure database[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2013.
[11]Zhang Wenwei,Zhang Zhengyong,Zhang Jinyuan,Yu Zhifeng,Yang Peng&Liu Yuqing.Research on reliability-based design technique of China domestic onshore gas pipeline[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Reliability,Maintainability and Safety.Guangzhou:IEEE,2014.
[12]Zhang Jinyuan,Zhang Zhenyong,Yu Zhifeng,Wu Wen&Chen Yingshuai.Building a target reliability adaptive to China onshore natural gas pipeline[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Pipeline Conference.Alberta:ASME,2014.
[13]温凯,张文伟,宫敬,李恒东,张振永,赵博渊.天然气管道可靠性的计算方法[J].油气储运,2014,33(7):729-733.Wen Kai,Zhang Wenwei,Gong Jing,Li Hengdong,Zhang Zhenyong&Zhao Boyuan.Computation of gas pipeline reliability[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7):729-733.
[14]Zhou J,Rothwell B,Nessim M&Zhou Wenxing.Development of reliability-based design and assessment standards for onshore natural gas transmission pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 6th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2006.
[15]Zimmerman T,Nessim M,Mc Lamb M,Rothwell B,Zhou J&Glover A.Target reliability levels for onshore gas pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[16]Nessim M,Zimmerman T,Glover A,Mc Lamb M,Rothwell B&Zhou J.Reliability-based limit states design for onshore pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[17]Lu Jiang,Wu Wen,Zhang Zhenyong&Zhang Jinyuan.Probability calculation of equipment impact based on reliability method[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2014.
[18]张振永,周亚薇,张金源.国内天然气管道强度设计系数的评估研究[J].天然气工业,2017,37(4):116-122.Zhang Zhenyong,Zhou Yawei&Zhang Jinyuan.Evaluation on strength design coefficients of domestic natural gas pipelines[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(4):116-122.
[19]Stephens MJ,Leewis K&Moore DK.A model for sizing high consequence areas associated with natural gas pipelines[C]//Proceedings of 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[20]马志祥.油气长输管道的风险管理[J].油气储运,2005,24(2):1-7.Ma Zhixiang.Risk Management of oil and gas long-distance pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2005,24(2):1-7.
[21]郑津阳,马夏康,尹谢平.长输管道安全[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.Zheng Jinyang,Ma Xiakang&Yin Xieping.Safety of long-distance transmission pipeline[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2004.
[22]张圣柱,吴宗之,张健,多英全.油气管道选线和风险评价相关法规与方法[J].油气储运,2012,31(9):663-669.Zhang Shengzhu,Wu Zongzhi,Zhang Jian&Duo Yingquan.Relevant regulations and methods for route selection of oil and gas pipelines and risk assessment[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2012,31(9):663-669.
[23]杨筱蘅.油气管道安全工程[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2005.Yang Xiaoheng.Oil and gas pipeline safety engineering[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press,2005.
[24]邢志祥.天然气长输管道的定量风险评价方法[J].石油机械,2008,36(4):15-17.Xing Zhixiang.A quantitative method of risk assessment of natural gas pipeline[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2008,36(4):15-17.
[25]林东,王毅辉,秦林,高健.当前管道风险评价中存在的问题及对策[J].油气储运,2014,33(9):963-966.Lin Dong,Wang Yihui,Qin Lin&Gao Jian.Problems in current pipeline risk assessment and countermeasures[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(9):963-966.
[26]冯庆善.管道完整性管理实践与思考[J].油气储运,2014,33(3):229-232.Feng Qingshan.Practice and cogitation on pipeline integrity management[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(3):229-232.
[27]国家能源局.油气输送管道风险评价导则:SYT 6859-2012[S].北京:石油工业出版社,2012.National Energy Bureau.Guidelines for risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines:SYT 6859-2012[S].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2012.
[2]姚安林,周立国,汪龙,王棠昱,李又绿.天然气长输管道地区等级升级管理与风险评价[J].天然气工业,2017,37(1):124-130.Yao Anlin,Zhou Liguo,Wang Long,Wang Tangyu&Li Youlü.Management of and risk evaluation on long-distance gas pipelines related to regional level upgrading[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(1):124-130.
[3]中国石油集团工程设计有限责任公司西南分公司.输气管道工程设计规范:GB 50251-2015[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2015.Southwest Company of China Petroleum Engineering Co.,LTD.Code for design of gas transmission pipeline engineering:GB50251-2015[S].Beijing:China Planning Press,2015.
[4]苗金明.管道风险评价技术概述[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2013.Miao Jinming.Pipeline risk assessment technology[M].Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press,2013.
[5]董绍华.管道完整性技术与管理[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2007.Dong Shaohua.Pipeline integrity technology and management[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press,2007.
[6]王其磊,程五一,张丽丽,戴联双,张华兵.管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J].油气储运,2011,30(7):494-496.Wang Qilei,Cheng Wuyi,Zhang Lili,Dai Lianshuang&Zhang Huabing.Pipeline quantitative risk assessment technology and its application[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2011,30(7):494-496.
[7]中国石油天然气股份有限公司管道分公司.油气输送管道完整性管理规范:GB 32167-2015[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.Petro China Pipeline Company.Oil and gas pipeline integrity management specification:GB 32167-2015[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2015.
[8]董国永.石油风险评价概论[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2001.Dong Guoyong.Overview of petroleum risk assessment[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2001.
[9]张圣柱,吴宗之.油气管道风险评价与安全管理[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2016.Zhang Shengzhu&Wu Zongzhi.Risk assessment and safety management of oil and gas pipeline[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2016.
[10]张华兵.基于失效库的在役天然气长输管道定量风险评价技术研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2013.Zhang Huabing.Study on quantitative risk assessment of in-service long-distance natural gas pipeline based on failure database[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2013.
[11]Zhang Wenwei,Zhang Zhengyong,Zhang Jinyuan,Yu Zhifeng,Yang Peng&Liu Yuqing.Research on reliability-based design technique of China domestic onshore gas pipeline[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Reliability,Maintainability and Safety.Guangzhou:IEEE,2014.
[12]Zhang Jinyuan,Zhang Zhenyong,Yu Zhifeng,Wu Wen&Chen Yingshuai.Building a target reliability adaptive to China onshore natural gas pipeline[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Pipeline Conference.Alberta:ASME,2014.
[13]温凯,张文伟,宫敬,李恒东,张振永,赵博渊.天然气管道可靠性的计算方法[J].油气储运,2014,33(7):729-733.Wen Kai,Zhang Wenwei,Gong Jing,Li Hengdong,Zhang Zhenyong&Zhao Boyuan.Computation of gas pipeline reliability[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7):729-733.
[14]Zhou J,Rothwell B,Nessim M&Zhou Wenxing.Development of reliability-based design and assessment standards for onshore natural gas transmission pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 6th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2006.
[15]Zimmerman T,Nessim M,Mc Lamb M,Rothwell B,Zhou J&Glover A.Target reliability levels for onshore gas pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[16]Nessim M,Zimmerman T,Glover A,Mc Lamb M,Rothwell B&Zhou J.Reliability-based limit states design for onshore pipelines[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[17]Lu Jiang,Wu Wen,Zhang Zhenyong&Zhang Jinyuan.Probability calculation of equipment impact based on reliability method[C]//Proceedings of the 10th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2014.
[18]张振永,周亚薇,张金源.国内天然气管道强度设计系数的评估研究[J].天然气工业,2017,37(4):116-122.Zhang Zhenyong,Zhou Yawei&Zhang Jinyuan.Evaluation on strength design coefficients of domestic natural gas pipelines[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(4):116-122.
[19]Stephens MJ,Leewis K&Moore DK.A model for sizing high consequence areas associated with natural gas pipelines[C]//Proceedings of 4th International Pipeline Conference.Calgary:ASME,2002.
[20]马志祥.油气长输管道的风险管理[J].油气储运,2005,24(2):1-7.Ma Zhixiang.Risk Management of oil and gas long-distance pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2005,24(2):1-7.
[21]郑津阳,马夏康,尹谢平.长输管道安全[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.Zheng Jinyang,Ma Xiakang&Yin Xieping.Safety of long-distance transmission pipeline[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2004.
[22]张圣柱,吴宗之,张健,多英全.油气管道选线和风险评价相关法规与方法[J].油气储运,2012,31(9):663-669.Zhang Shengzhu,Wu Zongzhi,Zhang Jian&Duo Yingquan.Relevant regulations and methods for route selection of oil and gas pipelines and risk assessment[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2012,31(9):663-669.
[23]杨筱蘅.油气管道安全工程[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2005.Yang Xiaoheng.Oil and gas pipeline safety engineering[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press,2005.
[24]邢志祥.天然气长输管道的定量风险评价方法[J].石油机械,2008,36(4):15-17.Xing Zhixiang.A quantitative method of risk assessment of natural gas pipeline[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2008,36(4):15-17.
[25]林东,王毅辉,秦林,高健.当前管道风险评价中存在的问题及对策[J].油气储运,2014,33(9):963-966.Lin Dong,Wang Yihui,Qin Lin&Gao Jian.Problems in current pipeline risk assessment and countermeasures[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(9):963-966.
[26]冯庆善.管道完整性管理实践与思考[J].油气储运,2014,33(3):229-232.Feng Qingshan.Practice and cogitation on pipeline integrity management[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(3):229-232.
[27]国家能源局.油气输送管道风险评价导则:SYT 6859-2012[S].北京:石油工业出版社,2012.National Energy Bureau.Guidelines for risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines:SYT 6859-2012[S].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2012.