化工园区定量风险评价方法及相关理论研究综述
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摘要
化工园区的发展顺应了工业生产大型化趋势,数量逐渐增多,已经成为了我国化学工业的主要发展模式,但是随之而来的安全风险问题也越来越突出。为了更好地进行化工园区风险评价,首先介绍了化工园区定量风险评价的定义、风险指标以及国内外发展现状,其次对影响风险评价的多米诺效应、风险可接受准则研究进行概述,最后提出目前化工园区风险评价的不足和展望。
The development of chemical industry park conforms to the trend of large-scale industrial production,and the quantity is gradually increasing. It has become the major development mode of China's chemical industry,but the ensuing problems of security risks are also becoming more and more prominent.In order to carry out the chemical park risk assessment better. Firstly,introduces the definition,risk index and development status of chemical park quantitative risk assessment,and then summarizes the research on Domino effect and risk acceptability criterion that affect risk assessment. Finally,shortcomings and prospects of chemical industry parks risk assessment.
The development of chemical industry park conforms to the trend of large-scale industrial production,and the quantity is gradually increasing. It has become the major development mode of China's chemical industry,but the ensuing problems of security risks are also becoming more and more prominent.In order to carry out the chemical park risk assessment better. Firstly,introduces the definition,risk index and development status of chemical park quantitative risk assessment,and then summarizes the research on Domino effect and risk acceptability criterion that affect risk assessment. Finally,shortcomings and prospects of chemical industry parks risk assessment.
引文
[1]吴宗之,多英全,魏利军,等.区域定量风险评价方法及其在城市重大危险源安全规划中的应用[J].中国工程科学,2006(4):46-49.
[2]Valerie de Dianous,C'ecile Fi'evez.ARAMIS project:A more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:220-233.
[3]Christian Delvosalle,C'ecile Fievez,Aurore Pipart,et al.ARAMIS project:A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:200-219.
[4]Planas E,Arnaldos J,Silvetti B,et al.A risk severity index for industrial plants and sites[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:242-250.
[5]中国安全生产科学研究院.宁波化工区区域风险评价报告[R].北京:中国安全生产科学研究院,2006.
[6]魏利军,多英全,于立见,等.化工园区安全规划方法与程序研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(9):45-51.
[7]陈国华,张静,张晖,等.区域风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(6):112-117.
[8]贾伟,朱建新,高增梁,等.区域定量风险评价方法及其在化工园区中的运用[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(5):140-146.
[9]佀庆民,许开立.区域定量风险评价理论探讨[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(8):139-143.
[10]王洪德,郑玉钱.基于网格划分及信息扩散的化工园区安全风险评价技术[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1286-1292.
[11]陈国华,施文松,赵远飞.基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(7):141-146.
[12]郭云龙,席永涛,胡甚平,等.基于动态贝叶斯网络的船舶溢油风险预报[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(11):53-59.
[13]宫运华,徐越.基于动态故障树的化工系统动态风险评价[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(2):134-138.
[14]彭登奎.LPG罐区区域定量风险分析[J].广东化工,2016,43(7):112-113.
[15]Cozzani V,Gubinelli G,Antonioni G,et al.The assessment of risk caused by Domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2005,127:14-30.
[16]Kourniotis S P,Kiranoudis C T,Markatos N C.Statistical analysis of Domino chemical accidents[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71(1/2/3):239-252.
[17]Bagster D F,Pitblado R M.The estimation of domino incident frequencies:an approach[J].Process Safety Environment,1991,69(4):195-199.
[18]Gledhill J,Lines I.Development of Methods to Assess the Significance of Domino Effects from Major Sazard Sites[M].London:Health and Safety Executive,1998:2-5.
[19]Faisal I Khan,Abbasi S A.DOMIFFECT(DOMINO EFFECT):user-friendly software Domino effect analysis[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,1 9 9 8(13):163-177.
[20]Cozzani V,Salzano E.The quantitative assessment of Domino effects caused by overpressure Part I:Probit models[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2004,107(3):67-80.
[21]Valerio Cozzani,Gianfilippo Gubinelli,Ernesto Salzano.Escalation thresholds in the assessment of Domino accidental events[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,129:1-21.
[22]Cozzani V,Antonioni G,Spadoni G.Quantitative assessment of Domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2006,19(5):463-477.
[23]Cozzani V,Tugnoli A,Salzano E.The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of Domino accidents[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2009,41:1216-1227.
[24]Abdolhamidzadeh B,Abbasi T,Rashtchian D,et al.A new method for assessing Domino effect in chemical process industry[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2010,182:416-426.
[25]王艳华,戴雪松,陈宝智.化学工业重大事故的多米诺效应分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):129-135.
[26]李树谦,胡兆吉.化工园区多米诺事故风险分析方法研究[J].安全生产与监督,2008,3:56-58.
[27]贾梅生,陈国华,胡昆.化工园区多米诺事故风险评价与防控技术综述[J].化工进展,2017,36(4):1534-1543.
[28]刘冬华,刘茂.基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(4):47-50.
[29]高建明,刘骥,曾明荣,等.我国生产安全领域个人风险和社会风险标准界定方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(10):91-95.
[30]李剑峰,刘茂,冉丽君.公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(5):112-115.
[31]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004(10):45-47.
[32]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007(12):116-119.
[33]赵忠刚,姚安林,李又绿,等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报:自然科学版,2008(2):147-150.
[34]魏利军,王如君,多英全,等.化工过程定量风险评价进展及风险准则比较分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):12-17.
[2]Valerie de Dianous,C'ecile Fi'evez.ARAMIS project:A more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:220-233.
[3]Christian Delvosalle,C'ecile Fievez,Aurore Pipart,et al.ARAMIS project:A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:200-219.
[4]Planas E,Arnaldos J,Silvetti B,et al.A risk severity index for industrial plants and sites[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130:242-250.
[5]中国安全生产科学研究院.宁波化工区区域风险评价报告[R].北京:中国安全生产科学研究院,2006.
[6]魏利军,多英全,于立见,等.化工园区安全规划方法与程序研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(9):45-51.
[7]陈国华,张静,张晖,等.区域风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(6):112-117.
[8]贾伟,朱建新,高增梁,等.区域定量风险评价方法及其在化工园区中的运用[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(5):140-146.
[9]佀庆民,许开立.区域定量风险评价理论探讨[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(8):139-143.
[10]王洪德,郑玉钱.基于网格划分及信息扩散的化工园区安全风险评价技术[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1286-1292.
[11]陈国华,施文松,赵远飞.基于风险的化工园区布局优化决策支持系统[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(7):141-146.
[12]郭云龙,席永涛,胡甚平,等.基于动态贝叶斯网络的船舶溢油风险预报[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(11):53-59.
[13]宫运华,徐越.基于动态故障树的化工系统动态风险评价[J].安全与环境工程,2015,22(2):134-138.
[14]彭登奎.LPG罐区区域定量风险分析[J].广东化工,2016,43(7):112-113.
[15]Cozzani V,Gubinelli G,Antonioni G,et al.The assessment of risk caused by Domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2005,127:14-30.
[16]Kourniotis S P,Kiranoudis C T,Markatos N C.Statistical analysis of Domino chemical accidents[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71(1/2/3):239-252.
[17]Bagster D F,Pitblado R M.The estimation of domino incident frequencies:an approach[J].Process Safety Environment,1991,69(4):195-199.
[18]Gledhill J,Lines I.Development of Methods to Assess the Significance of Domino Effects from Major Sazard Sites[M].London:Health and Safety Executive,1998:2-5.
[19]Faisal I Khan,Abbasi S A.DOMIFFECT(DOMINO EFFECT):user-friendly software Domino effect analysis[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,1 9 9 8(13):163-177.
[20]Cozzani V,Salzano E.The quantitative assessment of Domino effects caused by overpressure Part I:Probit models[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2004,107(3):67-80.
[21]Valerio Cozzani,Gianfilippo Gubinelli,Ernesto Salzano.Escalation thresholds in the assessment of Domino accidental events[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,129:1-21.
[22]Cozzani V,Antonioni G,Spadoni G.Quantitative assessment of Domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2006,19(5):463-477.
[23]Cozzani V,Tugnoli A,Salzano E.The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of Domino accidents[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2009,41:1216-1227.
[24]Abdolhamidzadeh B,Abbasi T,Rashtchian D,et al.A new method for assessing Domino effect in chemical process industry[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2010,182:416-426.
[25]王艳华,戴雪松,陈宝智.化学工业重大事故的多米诺效应分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):129-135.
[26]李树谦,胡兆吉.化工园区多米诺事故风险分析方法研究[J].安全生产与监督,2008,3:56-58.
[27]贾梅生,陈国华,胡昆.化工园区多米诺事故风险评价与防控技术综述[J].化工进展,2017,36(4):1534-1543.
[28]刘冬华,刘茂.基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(4):47-50.
[29]高建明,刘骥,曾明荣,等.我国生产安全领域个人风险和社会风险标准界定方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(10):91-95.
[30]李剑峰,刘茂,冉丽君.公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(5):112-115.
[31]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004(10):45-47.
[32]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007(12):116-119.
[33]赵忠刚,姚安林,李又绿,等.油气管道可接受风险标准值的界定研究[J].西南石油大学学报:自然科学版,2008(2):147-150.
[34]魏利军,王如君,多英全,等.化工过程定量风险评价进展及风险准则比较分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):12-17.