重大岩土工程可接受风险标准研究
|
摘要
风险评价是重大岩土工程科学决策的重要依据,可接受风险标准是预先制定评价风险是否接受的判断依据。本文分析了重大岩土工程可接受风险的影响因素,给出了可接受风险标准确定的基本原则和方法,总结可接受风险标准的确定依据。在系统梳理和总结了国内外可接受风险标准的理论与实践成果基础上,本文综合考虑我国国情、社会经济的发展水平以及重大岩土工程建设水平,结合实际调查问卷统计数据,基于社会有效性和公共安全角度,给出我国重大岩土工程个人生命可接受风险标准建议值,绘制社会生命可接受风险标准FN曲线和经济可接受风险标准FD曲线,根据生活质量指数(LQI)和生命统计价值(VSL)模型计算减轻生命风险公共决策的成本标准,给出社会稳定与环境可接受风险等级标准,为重大岩土工程风险决策提供参考。
Risk evaluation is an important basis for scientific decision-making for major geotechnical projece. Risk acceptance criteria are the basis for judging whether the risk is accepted or not. This article analyzes the influencing factors of risk acceptance criteria for major geotechnical projecet,summerizes the basic principles and methods of determining the risk acceptance criteria,and the determination basis of the criteria of acceptable risk. Based on summing up the theory and practice of the research achievements of risk acceptance criteria,fully considering the situation of our country,the social and economic development level,as well as major geotechnical engineering construction level,combined with the actual survey data,from the perspective of the social validity and the public safety,this article gives the recommended value of the risk acceptance criteria of individual life,drawes the risk acceptance criteria FN curve of social life and the risk acceptance criteria FD curve of economic,calculates the cost criterion for public decision-making to mitigate the risk of life according to the modern theory of LOI and VSL,proposes the acceptable risk level of social stability and environmental criteria,to provide reference for risk decision-making major geotechnical projects.
Risk evaluation is an important basis for scientific decision-making for major geotechnical projece. Risk acceptance criteria are the basis for judging whether the risk is accepted or not. This article analyzes the influencing factors of risk acceptance criteria for major geotechnical projecet,summerizes the basic principles and methods of determining the risk acceptance criteria,and the determination basis of the criteria of acceptable risk. Based on summing up the theory and practice of the research achievements of risk acceptance criteria,fully considering the situation of our country,the social and economic development level,as well as major geotechnical engineering construction level,combined with the actual survey data,from the perspective of the social validity and the public safety,this article gives the recommended value of the risk acceptance criteria of individual life,drawes the risk acceptance criteria FN curve of social life and the risk acceptance criteria FD curve of economic,calculates the cost criterion for public decision-making to mitigate the risk of life according to the modern theory of LOI and VSL,proposes the acceptable risk level of social stability and environmental criteria,to provide reference for risk decision-making major geotechnical projects.
引文
[1]Starr C.Social benefit versus technological risk[J].Science,1969,165(3899):1232-1238.
[2]Faber M.H.,Stewart.M.G.Risk assessment for civii engineering faciiities:critical overview and discussion[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003,80(2):173-184.
[3]Fischhoff B,Lichtenstein S,Slovic P,et al.Acceptable Risk[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1981.
[4]莫崇勋.洪水与风浪联合作用下水库土坝漫坝风险评价及效应研究[D].合肥:河海大学,2007.MO Chongxun.Study on Overtopping Risk Evaluation and Effect of Reservoir Earth Dam under Combined Action of Flood and Storm Wave[D].Hefei:Hohai University,2007.(in Chinese)
[5]Lowrance.Of Acceptable Risk:Science and the Determination of Safety[M].California:William Kaufmann,Inc.,1976.
[6]Maynard R L.Acceptable risk of environmental air pollution[J].International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health,2001,204(2):203-206.
[7]DJ Rasbash.The Tolerability of Risk from Nuclear Power Stations:Health and Safety Executive[M].London:Her Majesty’s Stationery Office,1988.
[8]UNISDR.Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction[R].Geneva,Switzerland:UNISDR,2009.
[9]于汐,薄景山.重大岩土工程风险评估研究现状[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(3):12-19.YU Xi,BO Jingshan.Review of risk assessment of major geotechnical project[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(3):12-19.(in Chinese)
[10]李华强,范春梅,贾建民,等.突发性灾害中的公众风险感知与应急管理——以5·12汶川地震为例[J].管理世界,2009,25(6):52-60.LI Huaqiang,FAN Chunmei,JIA Jianmin,et al.The public perception of risks and the management of emergency measures taken during unexpected calamities[J].Management World,2009,25(6):52-60.(in Chinese)
[11]尚志海.泥石流灾害综合风险货币化评估及可接受风险研究[D].广州:中山大学,2012.SHANG Zhihai.Monetary Evaluation of Debris Flow Disaster Integrated Risk and Acceptable Risk Study[D].Guangzhou:Sun Yat-sen University,2012.(in Chinese)
[12]林崇德,杨治良,黄希庭.心理学大辞典[M].上海:上海教育出版社,2003.LIN Chongde,YANG Zhiliang,HUANG Xiting.Dictionary of Psychology[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Education Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[13]刘燕华,葛全胜,吴文祥.风险管理—新世纪的挑战[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.LIU Yanhua,GE Quansheng,WU Wenxiang.Risk Management-challenges in the New Century[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.(in Chinese)
[14]Jonkman S N,van Gelder P H,Vrijling J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,99(1):1-30.
[15]Vrijling J K,van Hengel W,Houben R J.A framework for risk evaluation[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,1995,43(3):245-261.
[16]Marszal E M.Tolerable risk guidelines[J].Isa Transactions,2001,40(4):391-399.
[17]Hartford D N D.Legal framework considerations in the development of risk acceptance criteria[J].Structural Safety,2009,31(2):118-123.
[18]文雯,翟国方.基于博弈论的洪水风险可接受度研究[C]∥中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第五届年会论文集,Paris France:Atlantis Press,2012.WEN Wen,ZHAI Guofang.The study of acceptable flood risk based on the game theory[C]∥Proceedings of the fifth annual meeting of risk analysis Specialized Committee of China Association for disaster prevention,Paris France:Atlantis Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[19]Odd Nordland.When is risk acceptable[C]∥The 19th International System Safety Conference——A System Safety Odyssey,2001.
[20]V.M.Trbojevic.Risk criteria in EU[A].ESREL’05,Poland,2005:27-30.
[21]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J].海洋工程,2003,21(2):96-102.LI Dianqing,TANG Wenyong,ZHANG Shengkun.Review of risk acceptance criteria for ocean engineering[J].The Ocean Engineering,2003,21(2):96-102.(in Chinese)
[22]李世新.从技术评估到工程的社会评价——兼论工程与技术的区别[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2007,9(3):43-46.LI Shixin.From technology assessment to social assessment of project[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edtion),2007,9(3):43-46.(in Chinese)
[23]Jonkman S N,van Gelder P H A J M and Vrijling J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].2003,99(1):1-30.
[24]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.LUO Yun,FAN Yunxiao,MA Xiaochun.Risk Analysis and Safety Evaluation[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2004.(in Chinese)
[25]Nathwani J.S.,Lind N.C.and Pandey M.D.J.S.Nathwani,N.C.Lind,M.D.Pandey Affordable Safety by Choice:The Life Quality Method.Institute for Risk Research[M].Waterloo,Ontario:University of Waterloo,1997.
[26]Aacute M.S,nchez-Silva,Rü,Rackwitz D.Socioeconomic implications of life quality index in design of optimum structures to withstand earthquakes[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,2004,130(6):969-977.
[27]Streicher H,Joanni A,Rackwitz R.Cost-benefit optimization and risk acceptability for existing,aging but maintained structures[J].Structural Safety,2008,30(5):375-393.
[28]尚志海,刘希林.基于LQI的泥石流灾害生命风险价值评估[J].热带地理,2010,30(3):289-293.SHANG Zhihai,LIU Xilin.Life risk evaluation of debris flow disaster based on life quality index[J].Trpoical Geography,2010,30(3):289-293.(in Chinese)
[29]汪敏,张世文.香港地区岩土工程风险管理[J].工程勘察,2002,(4):1-5.WANG Min,ZHANG Shiwen.Risk management of geotechnical engineering in Hongkong[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2002,(4):1-5.(in Chinese)
[30]Leroi E,Bonnard C,Fell R,et al.Risk assessment and management[C]∥Hunger O,Fell R,Couture R,et al.Proceedings of International Conference on Landslide Risk Mangement,Van conver.London:Taylor&Francis Group,2005:159-198.
[31]V.M.Trbojevic.Risk criteria in EU.Risk Support Limited,London,U.K.
[32]杜效鹄,杨建.我国水电站大坝溃坝生命风险标准讨论[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):68-70.DU Xiaohu,YANG Jian.Discuss on risk standard of life loss caused by hydropower dam failure in China[J].Water Power,2010,36(5):68-70.(in Chinese)
[33]彭雪辉,盛金保,李雷,等.我国水库大坝风险标准制定研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2014,6(1):7-13.PENG Xuehui,SHENG Jinba,LI Lei,et al.Research on dam risk criteria of China[J].Hydro-science and Engineering,2014,6(1):7-13.(in Chinese)
[34]谢全敏.滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策方法研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2004.XIE Quanmin.Study on Landslide Hazard Risk Assessment and Its Decision making Method[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2004.(in Chinese)
[35]殷坤龙,张桂荣,陈丽霞,等.滑坡灾害风险分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Guirong,CHEN Lixia,et al.Landslide Disaster Risk Analysis[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[36]聂春龙.边坡工程风险分析理论与应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2012.NIE Chunlong.Risk Analysis Theory and Application for Slope Engineering[D].Changsha:Central South University,2012.(in Chinese)
[37]李东升.基于可靠度理论的边坡风险评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006.LI Dongsheng.Key Technology Research and System Development of Dam Safety Risk Management[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.(in Chinese)
[38]赵洲,侯恩科.中国地质灾害生命可接受风险标准研究[J].科技导报,2011,29(36):17-22.ZHAO Zhou,HOU Enke.The life risk acceptability criteria for the geo-hazards in China[J].Science&Technology Review,2011,29(36):17-22.(in Chinese)
[39]Fell R.Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1994,31(2):261-272.
[40]王仁钟,李雷,盛金保.水库大坝的社会与环境风险标准研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(1):8-11.WANG Renzhong,LI Lei,SHENG Jinbao.On criterion of social and environmental risk of reservoir dams[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(1):8-11.(in Chinese)
[41]陈伟,许强.地质灾害可接受风险水平研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):23-27.CHEN Wei,XU Qiang.Study on the level of acceptable risk level of geohazards[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):23-27.(in Chinese)
[42]李红英,谭跃虎.滑坡灾害风险可接受准则计算模型研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2013,9(S2):2047-2052.LI Hongying,TAN Yuehu.Study on the computational model of risk acceptance criteria for landslide disaster[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2013,9(s2):2047-2052.(in Chinese)
[43]周兴波,周建平,杜效鹄,等.我国大坝可接受风险标准研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):63-72.ZHOU Xingbo,ZHOU Jianping,DU Xiaohu,et al.Study on risk acceptance criteria on dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(1):63-72.(in Chinese)
[44]李雷,王仁钟,盛金保,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.LI Lei,WANG Renzhong,SHENG Jinbao,et al.Dam Risk Assessment and Risk Management[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2006.(in Chinese)
[45]赵新伟,张华,罗金恒.中国油气管道的可接受风险准则[J].油气储运,2016,35(1):1-6.ZHAO Xinwei,ZHANG Hua,LUO Jinheng.Acceptable risk criteria for China's oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[46]Health and Safety Commission[R].Advisory committee on major hazards,second report.London:HMSO,1979.
[47]Dirk Proske.Catalogue of Risks[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2008.
[48]Rackwitz R.Optimization and risk acceptability based on the life quality index[J].Structural Safety,2002,24(2-4):297-331.
[49]于汐,唐彦东,刘春平.统计生命价值研究综述[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(9):146-150.YU Xi,TANG Yandong,LIU Chunping.A review of progress in study on value of a statistical life[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(9):146-150.(in Chinese)
[50]Sanchez-Silva M,Rackwitz R.Socioeconomic implications of life qualityindex in design of optimum structures to withstand earthquakes[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,2004,130(6):969-977.
[51]Pandey,M.&Nathwani,J.Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety[J].Structural Safety,2004,26(2):181-199.
[52]曹峰,邵东珂,王展硕.重大工程项目社会稳定风险评估与社会支持度分析[J].国家行政学院学报,2013,13(6):91-95.CAO Feng,SHAO Dongke,WANG Zhanshuo.Social stability risk assessment and social support analysis for large projects[J].Journal of China National School of Administration,2013,13(6):91-95.(in Chinese)
[53]于汐,唐彦东.灾害风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2017.YU Xi,TANG Yandong.Disaster Risk Management[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[54]ICOLD(International Commission on Large Dams).Risk assessment in dam safety management[R].ICOLD bulletin 130,ICOLD,2005.
[2]Faber M.H.,Stewart.M.G.Risk assessment for civii engineering faciiities:critical overview and discussion[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2003,80(2):173-184.
[3]Fischhoff B,Lichtenstein S,Slovic P,et al.Acceptable Risk[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1981.
[4]莫崇勋.洪水与风浪联合作用下水库土坝漫坝风险评价及效应研究[D].合肥:河海大学,2007.MO Chongxun.Study on Overtopping Risk Evaluation and Effect of Reservoir Earth Dam under Combined Action of Flood and Storm Wave[D].Hefei:Hohai University,2007.(in Chinese)
[5]Lowrance.Of Acceptable Risk:Science and the Determination of Safety[M].California:William Kaufmann,Inc.,1976.
[6]Maynard R L.Acceptable risk of environmental air pollution[J].International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health,2001,204(2):203-206.
[7]DJ Rasbash.The Tolerability of Risk from Nuclear Power Stations:Health and Safety Executive[M].London:Her Majesty’s Stationery Office,1988.
[8]UNISDR.Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction[R].Geneva,Switzerland:UNISDR,2009.
[9]于汐,薄景山.重大岩土工程风险评估研究现状[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(3):12-19.YU Xi,BO Jingshan.Review of risk assessment of major geotechnical project[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(3):12-19.(in Chinese)
[10]李华强,范春梅,贾建民,等.突发性灾害中的公众风险感知与应急管理——以5·12汶川地震为例[J].管理世界,2009,25(6):52-60.LI Huaqiang,FAN Chunmei,JIA Jianmin,et al.The public perception of risks and the management of emergency measures taken during unexpected calamities[J].Management World,2009,25(6):52-60.(in Chinese)
[11]尚志海.泥石流灾害综合风险货币化评估及可接受风险研究[D].广州:中山大学,2012.SHANG Zhihai.Monetary Evaluation of Debris Flow Disaster Integrated Risk and Acceptable Risk Study[D].Guangzhou:Sun Yat-sen University,2012.(in Chinese)
[12]林崇德,杨治良,黄希庭.心理学大辞典[M].上海:上海教育出版社,2003.LIN Chongde,YANG Zhiliang,HUANG Xiting.Dictionary of Psychology[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Education Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[13]刘燕华,葛全胜,吴文祥.风险管理—新世纪的挑战[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.LIU Yanhua,GE Quansheng,WU Wenxiang.Risk Management-challenges in the New Century[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.(in Chinese)
[14]Jonkman S N,van Gelder P H,Vrijling J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,99(1):1-30.
[15]Vrijling J K,van Hengel W,Houben R J.A framework for risk evaluation[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,1995,43(3):245-261.
[16]Marszal E M.Tolerable risk guidelines[J].Isa Transactions,2001,40(4):391-399.
[17]Hartford D N D.Legal framework considerations in the development of risk acceptance criteria[J].Structural Safety,2009,31(2):118-123.
[18]文雯,翟国方.基于博弈论的洪水风险可接受度研究[C]∥中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第五届年会论文集,Paris France:Atlantis Press,2012.WEN Wen,ZHAI Guofang.The study of acceptable flood risk based on the game theory[C]∥Proceedings of the fifth annual meeting of risk analysis Specialized Committee of China Association for disaster prevention,Paris France:Atlantis Press,2012.(in Chinese)
[19]Odd Nordland.When is risk acceptable[C]∥The 19th International System Safety Conference——A System Safety Odyssey,2001.
[20]V.M.Trbojevic.Risk criteria in EU[A].ESREL’05,Poland,2005:27-30.
[21]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J].海洋工程,2003,21(2):96-102.LI Dianqing,TANG Wenyong,ZHANG Shengkun.Review of risk acceptance criteria for ocean engineering[J].The Ocean Engineering,2003,21(2):96-102.(in Chinese)
[22]李世新.从技术评估到工程的社会评价——兼论工程与技术的区别[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2007,9(3):43-46.LI Shixin.From technology assessment to social assessment of project[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edtion),2007,9(3):43-46.(in Chinese)
[23]Jonkman S N,van Gelder P H A J M and Vrijling J K.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].2003,99(1):1-30.
[24]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004.LUO Yun,FAN Yunxiao,MA Xiaochun.Risk Analysis and Safety Evaluation[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2004.(in Chinese)
[25]Nathwani J.S.,Lind N.C.and Pandey M.D.J.S.Nathwani,N.C.Lind,M.D.Pandey Affordable Safety by Choice:The Life Quality Method.Institute for Risk Research[M].Waterloo,Ontario:University of Waterloo,1997.
[26]Aacute M.S,nchez-Silva,Rü,Rackwitz D.Socioeconomic implications of life quality index in design of optimum structures to withstand earthquakes[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,2004,130(6):969-977.
[27]Streicher H,Joanni A,Rackwitz R.Cost-benefit optimization and risk acceptability for existing,aging but maintained structures[J].Structural Safety,2008,30(5):375-393.
[28]尚志海,刘希林.基于LQI的泥石流灾害生命风险价值评估[J].热带地理,2010,30(3):289-293.SHANG Zhihai,LIU Xilin.Life risk evaluation of debris flow disaster based on life quality index[J].Trpoical Geography,2010,30(3):289-293.(in Chinese)
[29]汪敏,张世文.香港地区岩土工程风险管理[J].工程勘察,2002,(4):1-5.WANG Min,ZHANG Shiwen.Risk management of geotechnical engineering in Hongkong[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2002,(4):1-5.(in Chinese)
[30]Leroi E,Bonnard C,Fell R,et al.Risk assessment and management[C]∥Hunger O,Fell R,Couture R,et al.Proceedings of International Conference on Landslide Risk Mangement,Van conver.London:Taylor&Francis Group,2005:159-198.
[31]V.M.Trbojevic.Risk criteria in EU.Risk Support Limited,London,U.K.
[32]杜效鹄,杨建.我国水电站大坝溃坝生命风险标准讨论[J].水力发电,2010,36(5):68-70.DU Xiaohu,YANG Jian.Discuss on risk standard of life loss caused by hydropower dam failure in China[J].Water Power,2010,36(5):68-70.(in Chinese)
[33]彭雪辉,盛金保,李雷,等.我国水库大坝风险标准制定研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2014,6(1):7-13.PENG Xuehui,SHENG Jinba,LI Lei,et al.Research on dam risk criteria of China[J].Hydro-science and Engineering,2014,6(1):7-13.(in Chinese)
[34]谢全敏.滑坡灾害风险评价及其治理决策方法研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2004.XIE Quanmin.Study on Landslide Hazard Risk Assessment and Its Decision making Method[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2004.(in Chinese)
[35]殷坤龙,张桂荣,陈丽霞,等.滑坡灾害风险分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Guirong,CHEN Lixia,et al.Landslide Disaster Risk Analysis[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[36]聂春龙.边坡工程风险分析理论与应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2012.NIE Chunlong.Risk Analysis Theory and Application for Slope Engineering[D].Changsha:Central South University,2012.(in Chinese)
[37]李东升.基于可靠度理论的边坡风险评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006.LI Dongsheng.Key Technology Research and System Development of Dam Safety Risk Management[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2012.(in Chinese)
[38]赵洲,侯恩科.中国地质灾害生命可接受风险标准研究[J].科技导报,2011,29(36):17-22.ZHAO Zhou,HOU Enke.The life risk acceptability criteria for the geo-hazards in China[J].Science&Technology Review,2011,29(36):17-22.(in Chinese)
[39]Fell R.Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1994,31(2):261-272.
[40]王仁钟,李雷,盛金保.水库大坝的社会与环境风险标准研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(1):8-11.WANG Renzhong,LI Lei,SHENG Jinbao.On criterion of social and environmental risk of reservoir dams[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(1):8-11.(in Chinese)
[41]陈伟,许强.地质灾害可接受风险水平研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):23-27.CHEN Wei,XU Qiang.Study on the level of acceptable risk level of geohazards[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):23-27.(in Chinese)
[42]李红英,谭跃虎.滑坡灾害风险可接受准则计算模型研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2013,9(S2):2047-2052.LI Hongying,TAN Yuehu.Study on the computational model of risk acceptance criteria for landslide disaster[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2013,9(s2):2047-2052.(in Chinese)
[43]周兴波,周建平,杜效鹄,等.我国大坝可接受风险标准研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):63-72.ZHOU Xingbo,ZHOU Jianping,DU Xiaohu,et al.Study on risk acceptance criteria on dams[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(1):63-72.(in Chinese)
[44]李雷,王仁钟,盛金保,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.LI Lei,WANG Renzhong,SHENG Jinbao,et al.Dam Risk Assessment and Risk Management[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2006.(in Chinese)
[45]赵新伟,张华,罗金恒.中国油气管道的可接受风险准则[J].油气储运,2016,35(1):1-6.ZHAO Xinwei,ZHANG Hua,LUO Jinheng.Acceptable risk criteria for China's oil and gas pipelines[J].Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[46]Health and Safety Commission[R].Advisory committee on major hazards,second report.London:HMSO,1979.
[47]Dirk Proske.Catalogue of Risks[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2008.
[48]Rackwitz R.Optimization and risk acceptability based on the life quality index[J].Structural Safety,2002,24(2-4):297-331.
[49]于汐,唐彦东,刘春平.统计生命价值研究综述[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(9):146-150.YU Xi,TANG Yandong,LIU Chunping.A review of progress in study on value of a statistical life[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(9):146-150.(in Chinese)
[50]Sanchez-Silva M,Rackwitz R.Socioeconomic implications of life qualityindex in design of optimum structures to withstand earthquakes[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,2004,130(6):969-977.
[51]Pandey,M.&Nathwani,J.Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety[J].Structural Safety,2004,26(2):181-199.
[52]曹峰,邵东珂,王展硕.重大工程项目社会稳定风险评估与社会支持度分析[J].国家行政学院学报,2013,13(6):91-95.CAO Feng,SHAO Dongke,WANG Zhanshuo.Social stability risk assessment and social support analysis for large projects[J].Journal of China National School of Administration,2013,13(6):91-95.(in Chinese)
[53]于汐,唐彦东.灾害风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2017.YU Xi,TANG Yandong.Disaster Risk Management[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[54]ICOLD(International Commission on Large Dams).Risk assessment in dam safety management[R].ICOLD bulletin 130,ICOLD,2005.