基于风险矩阵的FPSO设备风险评估
|
摘要
根据贝叶斯估计方法计算出FPSO设备的失效概率,结合层次分析法和风险可接受准则,总结出FPSO设备的风险评估方法。该方法包括对FPSO设备失效模式权重的计算和风险可接受准则的制定,并被应用于具体设备进行风险评估,认为该方法可为FPSO其他重要设备的风险评估和风险可接受准则的制定提供参考。
Based on Bayesian estimation method, the failure probability of the FPSO device is calculated. The method of risk assessment of FPSO equipment is summarized by combining analytic hierarchy process and risk acceptance criteria. The failure mode weighted calculation and risk acceptance criteria for FPSO equipments are included in the method, and the risk assessment for specific equipment is given based on the method. It is considered that this method can provide reference for the risk assessment and risk acceptance criteria of other important FPSO equipments.
Based on Bayesian estimation method, the failure probability of the FPSO device is calculated. The method of risk assessment of FPSO equipment is summarized by combining analytic hierarchy process and risk acceptance criteria. The failure mode weighted calculation and risk acceptance criteria for FPSO equipments are included in the method, and the risk assessment for specific equipment is given based on the method. It is considered that this method can provide reference for the risk assessment and risk acceptance criteria of other important FPSO equipments.
引文
[1]杜庆贵,沈晓婵,檀国荣,等.FPSO应用现状及发展趋势浅析[J].海洋工程装备与技术,2017,4(2):63-68.
[2]许涛,谭家翔,王胜,等.基于风险的检验在FPSO设备管理中的应用[J].石油化工设备,2010,39(3):79-81.
[3]余建星,张中华.基于风险的检测(RBI)技术在FPSO上的应用[J].海洋技术,2009,28(2):77-79.
[4]梁运枚,骆晖,杨伟天,等.天然气长输管道风险接受准则的研究进展[J].油气储运,2009,28(10):6-9.
[5]VANEM Erik.Ethics and fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria[J].Safety Science,2012,50(4):958-967.
[6]刘强,包士毅,罗利佳,等.基于贝叶斯估计的RBI在安全阀校验周期确定中的应用[J].压力容器,2016,33(4):52-58.
[7]徐正宏,吴奇.基于风险矩阵的变压器故障风险评估[J].电站系统工程,2015(5):68-70.
[8]陈忱,王明明,周锡河.燃气驱动压缩机失效故障树分析方法[J].石油规划设计,2009,20(3):8-10.
[9]方来华,吴宗之,康荣学,等.安全设备失效数据获取与计算[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):121-125.
[10]杜文正,丁刚乐.基于风险矩阵法的封闭空间空气安全风险评估模型[J].兵工自动化,2010,30(10):4-6.
[11]郭凤鸣,赵雁.层次分析法判断矩阵一致性检验及偏差自动修正程序[J].电脑开发与应用,1999(3):11-12.
[12]王孔森.基于层次分析方法的核电火灾风险评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(6):110-115.
[13]赵新伟,张华,罗金恒.中国油气管道的可接受风险准则[J].油气储运,2016(1):1-6.
[14]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J].海洋工程,2003,21(2):96-102.
[15]吴煜,李从东.二拉平原则(ALARP)应用分析——以工业系统风险评价为例[J].山东财经学院学报,2005(3):47-49.
[2]许涛,谭家翔,王胜,等.基于风险的检验在FPSO设备管理中的应用[J].石油化工设备,2010,39(3):79-81.
[3]余建星,张中华.基于风险的检测(RBI)技术在FPSO上的应用[J].海洋技术,2009,28(2):77-79.
[4]梁运枚,骆晖,杨伟天,等.天然气长输管道风险接受准则的研究进展[J].油气储运,2009,28(10):6-9.
[5]VANEM Erik.Ethics and fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria[J].Safety Science,2012,50(4):958-967.
[6]刘强,包士毅,罗利佳,等.基于贝叶斯估计的RBI在安全阀校验周期确定中的应用[J].压力容器,2016,33(4):52-58.
[7]徐正宏,吴奇.基于风险矩阵的变压器故障风险评估[J].电站系统工程,2015(5):68-70.
[8]陈忱,王明明,周锡河.燃气驱动压缩机失效故障树分析方法[J].石油规划设计,2009,20(3):8-10.
[9]方来华,吴宗之,康荣学,等.安全设备失效数据获取与计算[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):121-125.
[10]杜文正,丁刚乐.基于风险矩阵法的封闭空间空气安全风险评估模型[J].兵工自动化,2010,30(10):4-6.
[11]郭凤鸣,赵雁.层次分析法判断矩阵一致性检验及偏差自动修正程序[J].电脑开发与应用,1999(3):11-12.
[12]王孔森.基于层次分析方法的核电火灾风险评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(6):110-115.
[13]赵新伟,张华,罗金恒.中国油气管道的可接受风险准则[J].油气储运,2016(1):1-6.
[14]李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤.海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J].海洋工程,2003,21(2):96-102.
[15]吴煜,李从东.二拉平原则(ALARP)应用分析——以工业系统风险评价为例[J].山东财经学院学报,2005(3):47-49.