油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则研究
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摘要
对于石油和天然气管道,风险评估的目的是降低风险而不是消除风险。就管道结构而言,要达到绝对的安全即所谓的零风险只是理想目标,成本高且技术上难以达到。探讨和确定了我国油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则。使用模糊故障树计算得出基于定量风险的管道的可忽略失效风险PC1≈4.083×10-6与最大可接受失效风险PC2≈3.329×10-3。基于此,提出了油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则制定方法,采用P-L曲线结合ALARP原理确定了油气管道企业职工伤亡事故经济损失风险可接受准则。获得的石油和天然气管道失效可接受风险准则的数量级与国内外化工行业特殊设备风险的现行可接受标准相同,但要达到国外现有风险水平还需要增加风险投入。
For oil and gas pipelines, the purpose of risk assessment is to reduce risks rather than eliminate risks. As far as pipeline structure is concerned, to achieve absolute safety is only an ideal goal, which is costly and difficult to achieve technically. The acceptable criteria for the economic loss risk of the oil and gas pipeline in China are discussed and confirmed. The fuzzy risk tree is used to calculate the risk PC1≈4.083×10-6 and the maximum acceptable risk PC2≈3.329×10-3 of oil and gas pipelines based on quantitative risk. Based on this, a study method for the acceptance criteria of oil and gas pipeline economic loss risk is put forward. The acceptance criteria of economic loss risk of casualty accidents in oil and gas pipeline enterprises are determined by using the P-L curve and the principle of ALARP. The results show that the quantity of the oil and gas pipeline failure acceptable risk criteria is the same order of magnitude as the acceptable standard of the existing domestic and foreign chemical industry special equipment risk acceptable standards. Compared with the existing risk levels in foreign countries, our country also needs to increase the risk investment.
For oil and gas pipelines, the purpose of risk assessment is to reduce risks rather than eliminate risks. As far as pipeline structure is concerned, to achieve absolute safety is only an ideal goal, which is costly and difficult to achieve technically. The acceptable criteria for the economic loss risk of the oil and gas pipeline in China are discussed and confirmed. The fuzzy risk tree is used to calculate the risk PC1≈4.083×10-6 and the maximum acceptable risk PC2≈3.329×10-3 of oil and gas pipelines based on quantitative risk. Based on this, a study method for the acceptance criteria of oil and gas pipeline economic loss risk is put forward. The acceptance criteria of economic loss risk of casualty accidents in oil and gas pipeline enterprises are determined by using the P-L curve and the principle of ALARP. The results show that the quantity of the oil and gas pipeline failure acceptable risk criteria is the same order of magnitude as the acceptable standard of the existing domestic and foreign chemical industry special equipment risk acceptable standards. Compared with the existing risk levels in foreign countries, our country also needs to increase the risk investment.
引文
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[2]高鹏,谭喆,刘广仁,王培鸿.2016年中国油气管道建设新进展[J].国际石油经济,2017,25(3):26-33.
[3]张鹏,段永红.长输管线风险技术的研究[J].天然气工业,1998,18(5):72-76.
[4]J Ma,L Chen,P Zhang,et al.High Consequence Areas(HCAs)Assessment for Long-Distance Oil/Gas Pipeline[C].International Conference on Pipelines and Trenchless Technology,2011:1740-1748.
[5]雷启龙,贾子文.基于FMEA风险评价和FTA定量分析的风电机组维修决策[J].机械,2017,44(3):71-77,80.
[6]C STARR.Social Benefit versus Technological Risk.Science,1969,165(3899):1232-1238.
[7]T Aven,U Rogal.Safety Acceptance Criteria for Oil/Gas Production Systems[C].The Hague,Netherlands:SPE Health,Safety and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Conference,1991.
[8]王浩.天然气管道生命风险可接受性定量研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2017.
[9]梁运枚,骆晖,杨伟,方箭.天然气长输管道风险接受准则的研究进展[J].油气储运,2009,28(10):6-9,84,88.
[10]赵忠刚,姚安林,赵学芬.油气管道可接受性风险评估的研究进展[J].石油工业技术监督,2005,21(5):94-98.
[11]Fischhoff B.Acceptable Risk:A Conceptual Proposal[J].Risk,1994:5(1):1-28.
[12]Hokstad P,Steiro T.Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations[J].Radioisotopes,2006,91(1):100-111.
[13]R SKJONG.Risk Acceptance Criteria:Current proposals and IMO position[C].Valencia,Spain:Surface transport technologies for sustainable development,2002:4-6.
[14]刘志宽,侯晓犇,甘淳静.管道风险可接受性准则分类研究[J].内蒙古石油化工,2012,38(18):14-17.
[15]陈利琼.在役油气长输管道定量风险技术研究[D].北京:北京图书馆,2004.
[16]D Wang,P Zhang,L Chen.Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2013,26(9):1390-1398.
[17]王大庆,张鹏.油气输送管线失效后果模糊事件树分析[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(3):88-92.
[18]HSE.The tolerability of risk from nuclear power stations[R].Her Majesty's Stationery Office,1988.
[19]李漾,周昌玉,张伯君.石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007(6):116-119.