电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素建模
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摘要
从工程实用的角度出发,对电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素如何建模进行了研究。基于省中调的主要调度模式,通过综合分析调度指令由拟令到下发再到执行的整个流程中,人的因素可能对调度操作带来的风险,将人员风险因素分别从历史层面和实时层面进行了数学建模,其中,人员风险因素的历史因子包括上岗时间、技能水平、责任心和历史失误率等;实时因子包括本次操作任务的强度、操作的时间段、工作人员疲劳度和心理情绪等。据此,进一步提出了基于指数型综合评估函数的人员风险因素量化模型,并以广东省为例,针对广东中调的一些典型操作进行了算例分析。结果表明,所提出的人员风险因素模型为量化人的因素可能导致电网调度操作面临的风险严重性提供了较好的评估依据,是电网调度操作风险量化评估的前提与基础。目前,该模型已在广东电网获得实际应用。
Modelling of human risk factors during power grid dispatching operation is studied from the perspective of practical engineering.Based on the main dispatching modes of the province,the potential dispatching risk of human factors during the whole process of dispatching orders is comprehensively analyzed,from planning,sending down to carrying out orders.Then a mathematical model each for human risk factors of historical and real-time ones is developed respectively.Human risk factors including working years,skill level,sense of responsibility,historical error rate and so on are considered in historical human factors.And operation intensity,time interval,dispatchers' fatigue degree,mental emotion and so on are included in real-time human factors.Then based on exponential synthetic assessment,a human factor's risk quantified model is proposed.Finally,numerical examples of Guangdong electric power dispatching are simulated to show that the model proposed has provided a fairly good assessment basis to be aware of the severity that quantifying the human factors may lead to the risks faced by humans during power grid dispatching,which will turn out to be the premise and foundation for quantifying the assessment of power grid dispatching risks.
Modelling of human risk factors during power grid dispatching operation is studied from the perspective of practical engineering.Based on the main dispatching modes of the province,the potential dispatching risk of human factors during the whole process of dispatching orders is comprehensively analyzed,from planning,sending down to carrying out orders.Then a mathematical model each for human risk factors of historical and real-time ones is developed respectively.Human risk factors including working years,skill level,sense of responsibility,historical error rate and so on are considered in historical human factors.And operation intensity,time interval,dispatchers' fatigue degree,mental emotion and so on are included in real-time human factors.Then based on exponential synthetic assessment,a human factor's risk quantified model is proposed.Finally,numerical examples of Guangdong electric power dispatching are simulated to show that the model proposed has provided a fairly good assessment basis to be aware of the severity that quantifying the human factors may lead to the risks faced by humans during power grid dispatching,which will turn out to be the premise and foundation for quantifying the assessment of power grid dispatching risks.
引文
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[15]张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.ZHANG Guohua,DUAN Manyin,ZHANG Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4.
[16]吴伟丽,刘连光,王开让.磁暴扰动下电力系统故障风险评估方法与模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(4):830-839.WU Weili,LIU Lianguang,WANG Kairang.Risk assessment methods and models of power system fault due to geomagnetic disturbance[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(4):830-839.
[17]ZHANG Ning,KANG Chongqing,LIU Jingkun,et al.Midshort-term risk assessment of power systems considering impact of external environment[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2013,1(2):118-126.
[18]GUO Lei,QIU Qiwei,LIU Jian,et al.Power transmission risk assessment considering component condition[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2014,2(1):50-58.
[19]刘国中,张勇军,李哲.基于CREAM追溯法的变电运行人因失效分析[J].中国电力,2007,40(5):85-89.LIU Guozhong,ZHANG Yongjun,LI Zhe.Human error’s analysis in substation operation based on CREAM[J].Electric Power,2007,40(5):85-89.
[20]郭创新,陆海波,俞斌,等.电力二次系统安全风险评估研究综述[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):112-118.GUO Chuangxin,LU Haibo,YU Bin,et al.A survey of research on security risk assessment of secondary system[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(1):112-118.
[21]曾繁源.配网调度操作风险管理体系研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013.
[22]陆海波.电网人因可靠性及操作风险研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013.
[23]中国南方电网有限责任公司.广东电力系统调度规程(修订):Q/CSG-GPG 212001—2011[S].2012.
[24]FUJITA Y,HOLLNAGEL E.Failures without errors:quantification of context in HRA[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):145-151.
[25]SUN Z,LI Z,GONG E.Estimating human error probability using a modified CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,100:28-32.
[26]KIM M C,SEONG P H,HOLLNAGEL E.A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2006,91(2):191-199.
[27]郭夏言.电力企业集控运行员工疲劳问题研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2007.
[2]王婉婷,包博.一种220kV母线实时倒闸操作风险量化模型[J].电气应用,2014,33(23):55-58.
[3]鲁宗相.电网复杂性及大停电事故的可靠性研究[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(12):93-97.LU Zongxiang.Survey of the research on the complexity of power grids and reliability of blackouts[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2005,29(12):93-97.
[4]尤毅,刘东,钟清,等.主动配电网优化调度策略研究[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(9):177-183.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20130804001.YOU Yi,LIU Dong,ZHONG Qing,et al.Research on optimal schedule strategy for active distribution network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(9):177-183.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20130804001.
[5]辛耀中,石俊杰,周京阳,等.智能电网调度控制系统现状与技术展望[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(1):2-8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141008024.XIN Yaozhong,SHI Junjie,ZHOU Jingyang,et al.Technology development trends of smart grid dispatching and controls systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(1):2-8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141008024.
[6]杜刚,孟勇亮,彭晖,等.地区电网智能调度控制系统实践与展望[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(1):200-205.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141008015.DU Gang,MENG Yongliang,PENG Hui,et al.Practice and prospects of dispatching and control systems in regional power grid[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(1):200-205.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141008015.
[7]黄曙东,戴立操,张力.核电站事故前人因可靠性分析方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(2):56-59.HUANG Shudong,DAI Licao,ZHANG Li.Pre-initiators HRA method in a nuclear power plant[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(2):56-59.
[8]谢红卫,孙志强,李欣欣,等.典型人因可靠性分析方法评述[J].国防科技大学学报,2007,29(2):101-107.XIE Hongwei,SUN Zhiqiang,LI Xinxin,et al.An overview of typical methods for human reliability analysis[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2007,29(2):101-107.
[9]李鹏程,陈国华,张力,等.人因可靠性分析技术的研究进展与发展趋势[J].原子能科学技术,2011,45(3):329-340.LI Pengcheng,CHEN Guohua,ZHANG Li,et al.Research review and development trends of human reliability analysis techniques[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2011,45(3):329-340.
[10]阳富强,吴超,汪发松,等.1998—2008年人因可靠性研究进展[J].科技导报,2009,27(8):87-94.YANG Fuqiang,WU Chao,WANG Fasong,et al.1998—2008human factors reliability research progress[J].Science&Technology Review,2009,27(8):87-94.
[11]刘柱,华威,陈睿,等.电网运行风险评估的综述[J].机电工程技术,2014,43(12):97-102.LIU Zhu,HUA Wei,CHEN Rui,et al.An overview of risk assessment of power grid[J].Mechanical&Electrical Engineering Technology,2014,43(12):97-102.
[12]陈为化,江全元,曹一家,等.电力系统电压崩溃的风险评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(19):36-41.CHEN Weihua,JIANG Quanyuan,CAO Yijia,et al.Risk assessment of voltage collapse in power system[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(19):36-41.
[13]陈文彬.惠州电网运行风险评估[D].广州:华南理工大学,2009.
[14]李碧君,方勇杰,徐泰山.关于电网运行安全风险在线评估的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(18):171-177.LI Bijun,FANG Yongjie,XU Taishan.Review on online operational security risk assessment of power system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(18):171-177.
[15]张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.ZHANG Guohua,DUAN Manyin,ZHANG Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4.
[16]吴伟丽,刘连光,王开让.磁暴扰动下电力系统故障风险评估方法与模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(4):830-839.WU Weili,LIU Lianguang,WANG Kairang.Risk assessment methods and models of power system fault due to geomagnetic disturbance[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(4):830-839.
[17]ZHANG Ning,KANG Chongqing,LIU Jingkun,et al.Midshort-term risk assessment of power systems considering impact of external environment[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2013,1(2):118-126.
[18]GUO Lei,QIU Qiwei,LIU Jian,et al.Power transmission risk assessment considering component condition[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2014,2(1):50-58.
[19]刘国中,张勇军,李哲.基于CREAM追溯法的变电运行人因失效分析[J].中国电力,2007,40(5):85-89.LIU Guozhong,ZHANG Yongjun,LI Zhe.Human error’s analysis in substation operation based on CREAM[J].Electric Power,2007,40(5):85-89.
[20]郭创新,陆海波,俞斌,等.电力二次系统安全风险评估研究综述[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):112-118.GUO Chuangxin,LU Haibo,YU Bin,et al.A survey of research on security risk assessment of secondary system[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(1):112-118.
[21]曾繁源.配网调度操作风险管理体系研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013.
[22]陆海波.电网人因可靠性及操作风险研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013.
[23]中国南方电网有限责任公司.广东电力系统调度规程(修订):Q/CSG-GPG 212001—2011[S].2012.
[24]FUJITA Y,HOLLNAGEL E.Failures without errors:quantification of context in HRA[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2004,83(2):145-151.
[25]SUN Z,LI Z,GONG E.Estimating human error probability using a modified CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,100:28-32.
[26]KIM M C,SEONG P H,HOLLNAGEL E.A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2006,91(2):191-199.
[27]郭夏言.电力企业集控运行员工疲劳问题研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2007.