随机潮流在输电网安全风险评估中的应用
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摘要
在综合考虑发电机故障停运、负荷随机波动以及网络结构不确定性的基础上,提出一种基于随机潮流的输电网发生断线故障时的风险评估方法。首先,建立发电机、负荷的概率模型;然后,在构造的断线预想事故集下,运用基于半不变量法的随机潮流计算方法得到未故障支路有功潮流过载概率以及各节点电压越限概率;最后,结合断线故障发生的概率和支路功率过载概率、节点电压越限概率,建立输电网断线风险指标,依据断线风险指标值的大小来评估不同断线故障对系统的影响。对IEEE 30节点输电网系统进行仿真分析,计算不同支路的断线风险指标值,辅助运行人员进行决策,对风险指标值较大的支路,应重点关注,避免由此引发的重大事故。
Taking generator failure,load fluctuations and network configuration changes into account,we proposed a risk assessment method of line-breakage contingency based on stochastic load flow. Firstly,the probabilistic models of generators and loads are established. Secondly,by means of the stochastic load flow method based on cumulant,under the list of expected contingency of line breakage,we calculated the active power overloading probabilities of lines without breakage and node voltage off-limit probabilities. Finally,integrating the line-breakage probabilities with power overloading probabilities of branch circuit and node voltage off-limit probabilities,the line-breakage risk index that can be used to assess the impact of different line breakages on the system is obtained. We carried out stimulation study by using the IEEE 30- node transmission system. The line-breakage risk indexes are calculated. Thus,it is helpful for operation staff to make decisions and they should pay more attention to lines with higher risk indexes in order to avoid serious accidents.
Taking generator failure,load fluctuations and network configuration changes into account,we proposed a risk assessment method of line-breakage contingency based on stochastic load flow. Firstly,the probabilistic models of generators and loads are established. Secondly,by means of the stochastic load flow method based on cumulant,under the list of expected contingency of line breakage,we calculated the active power overloading probabilities of lines without breakage and node voltage off-limit probabilities. Finally,integrating the line-breakage probabilities with power overloading probabilities of branch circuit and node voltage off-limit probabilities,the line-breakage risk index that can be used to assess the impact of different line breakages on the system is obtained. We carried out stimulation study by using the IEEE 30- node transmission system. The line-breakage risk indexes are calculated. Thus,it is helpful for operation staff to make decisions and they should pay more attention to lines with higher risk indexes in order to avoid serious accidents.
引文
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[9]朱星阳,黄宇峰,张建华,等.基于随机潮流的含风电电力系统静态安全评估[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(20):46-53.
[10]葛少云,朱振环,刘洪,等.配电网故障风险综合评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2014,26(7):40-45.
[11]郭小敏,黄俊,杨健维,等.潮流介数理论在输电网断线风险评估中的应用[J].电网技术,2015,39(2):487-493.
[12]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):90-98.
[2]丁明,李生虎,黄凯.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率潮流计算[J].电网技术,2001,25(11):10-14.
[3]ZHANG P,LEE S T.Probabilistic Load Flow Computation using the Method of Combined Comulants and Gram-Charlier Expansion[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2004,19(1):676-682.
[4]戴小青.电力系统概率潮流新算法及其应用[D].北京:华北电力大学,2006.
[5]DONG Lei,ZHANG Chuancheng,YANG Yihan,et al.Improvement of probabilistic load flow to consider network configuration uncertainties[C].Proceedings of Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference.IEEE Power&Energy Society,2009:1-5.
[6]董雷,杨以涵,张传成,等.综合考虑网络结构不确定性的概率潮流计算方法[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(1):210-216.
[7]王晓茹,高仕斌.电力系统分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.
[8]胡泽春,王锡凡,张显,等.考虑线路故障的随机潮流[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(24):26-33..
[9]朱星阳,黄宇峰,张建华,等.基于随机潮流的含风电电力系统静态安全评估[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(20):46-53.
[10]葛少云,朱振环,刘洪,等.配电网故障风险综合评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2014,26(7):40-45.
[11]郭小敏,黄俊,杨健维,等.潮流介数理论在输电网断线风险评估中的应用[J].电网技术,2015,39(2):487-493.
[12]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):90-98.