基于区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集的工程项目风险辨识和评价
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摘要
针对具有信息灰性、模糊性及语言描述性的工程项目风险问题,定义区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集用于表达这些特征,结合多属性群决策理论和C-OWA算子,构建工程项目风险辨识和风险评价模型,以南京市纬三路过江隧道为例验证所建模型的可行性。结果表明,该模型可以利用区间灰度、区间隶属度和区间非隶属度以及不确定语言变量,更全面、更真实地表达工程项目的实际信息,得到更符合工程实际的风险辨识和评价结果,帮助项目管理者更准确地预知主要风险因素和风险状态。
According to construction project risk problem with the characteristics of grey,fuzziness and linguistic description,the interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set is defined and used to express these characteristics. The construction project risk identification model and assessment model are proposed based on the defined set,multi-attribute group decision making theory and C-OWA operator. We take the Weft Three Road Cross-River Tunnel in Nanjing as a case to verify the proposed models feasible. The research results show that the proposed models can use interval grey degree,interval membership degree,interval non-membership degree and uncertain linguistic variable to express practical construction project information more roundly and veritably. We get more practical risk identification and assessment results,which help project managers to predict key risk factors and risk state more exactly.
According to construction project risk problem with the characteristics of grey,fuzziness and linguistic description,the interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set is defined and used to express these characteristics. The construction project risk identification model and assessment model are proposed based on the defined set,multi-attribute group decision making theory and C-OWA operator. We take the Weft Three Road Cross-River Tunnel in Nanjing as a case to verify the proposed models feasible. The research results show that the proposed models can use interval grey degree,interval membership degree,interval non-membership degree and uncertain linguistic variable to express practical construction project information more roundly and veritably. We get more practical risk identification and assessment results,which help project managers to predict key risk factors and risk state more exactly.
引文
[1]卜广志,张宇文.基于灰色模糊关系的灰色模糊综合评判[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(4):141-144.
[2]王坚强,王君.一种区间灰色模糊多准则决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(12):2409-2411.
[3]王坚强,王君.基于区间灰色区间数的多准则决策方法[J].管理学报,2009,6(9):1150-1153.
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[6] Liu P D. Some geometric aggregation operators based on interval intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables and their application to group decision making[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling,2013,37(4):2430-2444.
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[9]李凤伟,杜修力,张明聚,等.改进的层次分析法在明挖地铁车站施工风险辨识中的应用[J].北京工业大学学报,2012,38(2):167-172.
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[13]张洪祥,毛志忠.基于多维时间序列的灰色模糊信用评价研究[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(1):28-37.
[14]郭进平,尚旭光,王雪妮.基于二元语义和AHP法的矿山职业危害综合评价方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8):116-122.
[15]朱佳翔,谭青美.基于模糊决策模型的高速公路环境风险评价[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(4):153-160.
[16]姜江,李璇,邢立宁,等.基于模糊证据推理的系统风险分析与评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(2):529-537.
[17]王帆,霍明奎,王晓婷.基于模糊灰度的信息系统安全风险评价与对策[J].情报科学,2014,32(1):110-114.
[18]沈简,饶军,傅旭东.基于模糊综合评价法的泥石流风险评价[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):171-175.
[19] Herrera F,Herrera-Viedma E. Linguistic decision analysis:steps for solving decision problems under linguistic information[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2000,115(1):67-82.
[20] Xu Z S. Induced uncertain linguistic OWA operators applied to group decision making[J]. Information Fusion,2006,7(2):231-238.
[21] Yager R R. OWA aggregation over a continuous interval argument with applications to decision making[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,Part B:Cybernetics,2004,34(5):1952-1963.
[2]王坚强,王君.一种区间灰色模糊多准则决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(12):2409-2411.
[3]王坚强,王君.基于区间灰色区间数的多准则决策方法[J].管理学报,2009,6(9):1150-1153.
[4]刘培德,张新.一种基于区间灰色语言变量几何加权集成算子的多属性群决策方法[J].控制与决策,2011,26(5):743-747.
[5]曹国,沈利香.一种基于三参数区间灰色语言变量的多属性群决策方法[J].运筹与管理,2014,23(1):66-73.
[6] Liu P D. Some geometric aggregation operators based on interval intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables and their application to group decision making[J]. Applied Mathematical Modelling,2013,37(4):2430-2444.
[7]刘培德,金芳.区间直觉不确定语言集成算子及在群决策中的应用研究[J].管理工程学报,2014,28(1):124-131.
[8]王坚强,吴建文.基于区间灰色不确定语言的多准则决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2010,18(3):107-112.
[9]李凤伟,杜修力,张明聚,等.改进的层次分析法在明挖地铁车站施工风险辨识中的应用[J].北京工业大学学报,2012,38(2):167-172.
[10]魏永幸,丁兆峰,罗一农.滑坡风险识别与评价的研究[J].铁道工程学报,2013,(7):95-99.
[11]索玮岚,陈锐.考虑复杂关联情境的城市典型生命线运行风险因素识别方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(8):130-140.
[12]刘光凤,陈方伟,周直,等.基于灰色模糊多属性群决策的越江隧道投资风险辨识[J].现代隧道技术,2015,52(4):41-48.
[13]张洪祥,毛志忠.基于多维时间序列的灰色模糊信用评价研究[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(1):28-37.
[14]郭进平,尚旭光,王雪妮.基于二元语义和AHP法的矿山职业危害综合评价方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8):116-122.
[15]朱佳翔,谭青美.基于模糊决策模型的高速公路环境风险评价[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(4):153-160.
[16]姜江,李璇,邢立宁,等.基于模糊证据推理的系统风险分析与评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(2):529-537.
[17]王帆,霍明奎,王晓婷.基于模糊灰度的信息系统安全风险评价与对策[J].情报科学,2014,32(1):110-114.
[18]沈简,饶军,傅旭东.基于模糊综合评价法的泥石流风险评价[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):171-175.
[19] Herrera F,Herrera-Viedma E. Linguistic decision analysis:steps for solving decision problems under linguistic information[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2000,115(1):67-82.
[20] Xu Z S. Induced uncertain linguistic OWA operators applied to group decision making[J]. Information Fusion,2006,7(2):231-238.
[21] Yager R R. OWA aggregation over a continuous interval argument with applications to decision making[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,Part B:Cybernetics,2004,34(5):1952-1963.