互联网提高了我国居民收入流动性吗?——基于CFPS 2010—2016数据的实证研究
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摘要
文章使用CFPS 2010、2012、2014、2016四个年度的微观数据,运用收入转换矩阵和有序probit模型,实证检验了互联网对居民收入流动性的影响及其时间趋势,并展开了异质性和机制分析,最后利用家庭层面数据和倾向性得分匹配法进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明:使用互联网学习、工作、社交对居民收入阶层的提升都有显著的促进作用,且随着时间推移呈现出作用增强的特征;互联网使用对居民收入流动性影响有异质性特征;互联网对农村居民和女性居民的影响要分别大于对城镇居民和男性居民的影响;在中国不同地区,使用互联网促进居民收入向上流动效应最显著的地方为西部地区,其次是中部和东北地区;互联网可通过信息渠道、金融产品、教育、社会网络、就业等途径对居民收入流动产生显著影响。
Using the micro-data of CFPS 2010,2012,2014 and 2016,this paper adopts income transformation matrix and ordered probit model to empirically estimate the impact of Internet on household income mobility and its time trend. Further analyses are made on the heterogeneity and mechanism of the impact,and robustness test is made by using household level data and propensity score matching( PSM) method. The study finds that using Internet to learn,work,or make social interactions has a significant role in promoting the income level of residents,and the effect has an upward trend as time goes by. The impact of Internet use on Residents' income mobility is heterogeneous. The impacts of Internet on rural residents and female residents are greater than those on urban residents and male residents respectively. In different regions of China,the effect of Internet on upward income flow is the most significant in the western region,followed by the central and northeastern regions. The Internet can exert great influence on the income flow of residents through information,financial products,education,social networks,and employment channels.
Using the micro-data of CFPS 2010,2012,2014 and 2016,this paper adopts income transformation matrix and ordered probit model to empirically estimate the impact of Internet on household income mobility and its time trend. Further analyses are made on the heterogeneity and mechanism of the impact,and robustness test is made by using household level data and propensity score matching( PSM) method. The study finds that using Internet to learn,work,or make social interactions has a significant role in promoting the income level of residents,and the effect has an upward trend as time goes by. The impact of Internet use on Residents' income mobility is heterogeneous. The impacts of Internet on rural residents and female residents are greater than those on urban residents and male residents respectively. In different regions of China,the effect of Internet on upward income flow is the most significant in the western region,followed by the central and northeastern regions. The Internet can exert great influence on the income flow of residents through information,financial products,education,social networks,and employment channels.
引文
[1]刘志国,马健.谁的上升空间受到了挤压:收入流动性角度的分析[J].经济学动态,2016,(8):53-60.
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[4]洪兴建,马巧丽.中国城镇居民家庭收入流动性及其对收入不平等的影响[J].统计研究,2018,35(4):64-72.
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[6]尹恒,李实,邓曲恒.中国城镇个人收入流动性研究[J].经济研究,2006,(10):30-43,15.
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[10]杜冰青,吕之望.教育对农村居民收入流动性的影响[J].金融评论,2013,5(5):98-103,125-126.
[11]陈书伟.我国农户家庭收入流动性实证分析---基于CHNS农村样本数据的发现[J].经济经纬,2017,34(3):31-36.
[12]臧微,白雪梅.中国居民收入流动性的区域结构研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(7):57-73.
[13]杨穗,李实.中国城镇家庭的收入流动性[J].中国人口科学,2016,(5):78-89,127-128.
[14]王正位,邓颖惠,廖理.知识改变命运:金融知识与微观收入流动性[J].金融研究,2016,(12):111-127.
[15]张子豪,谭燕芝.社会保险与收入流动性[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(8):27-41.
[16]Hindman D B.The Rural-Urban Digital Divide[J].Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly,2000,77(3):549-560.
[17]Ernest P,Joseph M.How Information Technology Affects Wages:Evidence Using Internet Usage as a Proxy for IT Skills[J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(3):463-474.
[18]Dimaggio P,Bonikowski B.Make Money Surfing the Web?The Impact of Internet Use on the Earnings of U.S.Workers[J].American Sociological Review,2008,73(2):227-250.
[19]M Goos,A Manning,A Solomons.Job Polarization in Europe[J].American Economic Review,2009,99(2):58-63.
[20]Forman C,Goldfarb A,Greenstein S.The Internet and Local Wages:A Puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(1):556-575.
[21]Serrano-Cinca C,Mu1oz-Soro J F,Brusca I.A Multivariate Study of Internet Use and the Digital Divide[J].Social Science Quarterly,2018,(2).
[22]卜茂亮,罗华江,周耿.Internet对劳动力市场的影响---基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据的实证研究[J].南方人口,2011,26(5):1-10.
[23]李雅楠,谢倩芸.互联网使用与工资收入差距---基于CHNS数据的经验分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017,(7):87-100,26.
[24]毛宇飞,曾湘泉,胡文馨.互联网使用能否减小性别工资差距?---基于CFPS数据的经验分析[J].财经研究,2018,44(7):33-45.
[25]韩长根,张力.互联网普及对于城乡收入分配的影响---基于我国省际面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017,(8):18-27,8.
[26]Gao Y,Zang L,Sun J.Does Computer Penetration Increase Farmers'Income?An Empirical Study From China[J].Telecommunications Policy,2018,42(5).
[27]华昱.互联网使用的收入增长效应:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2018,(3):219-224.
[28]马光荣,杨恩艳.社会网络、非正规金融与创业[J].经济研究,2011,46(3):83-94.
[29]Fields G S,Ok E A.The Meaning and Measurement of Income Mobility[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1996,71(2):349-377.
[30]柴时军.社会网络与家庭创业决策---来自中国家庭追踪调查的经验证据[J].云南财经大学学报,2017,33(6):111-122.
[31]许艳丽,王岚.创新驱动发展战略下女性创业的新趋势、新挑战与新路径[J].科学管理研究,2017,35(3):91-93,113.
[32]宁光杰,马俊龙.互联网使用对女性劳动供给的影响[J].社会科学战线,2018,(2):75-83.
[2]严斌剑,周应恒,于晓华.中国农村人均家庭收入流动性研究:1986-2010年[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):939-968.
[3]杨穗,李实.转型时期中国居民家庭收入流动性的演变[J].世界经济,2017,40(11):3-22.
[4]洪兴建,马巧丽.中国城镇居民家庭收入流动性及其对收入不平等的影响[J].统计研究,2018,35(4):64-72.
[5]施炳展.互联网与国际贸易---基于双边双向网址链接数据的经验分析[J].经济研究,2016,51(5):172-187.
[6]尹恒,李实,邓曲恒.中国城镇个人收入流动性研究[J].经济研究,2006,(10):30-43,15.
[7]王洪亮,刘志彪,孙文华,胡棋智.中国居民获取收入的机会是否公平:基于收入流动性的微观计量[J].世界经济,2012,35(1):114-143.
[8]章奇,米建伟,黄季焜.收入流动性和收入分配:来自中国农村的经验证据[J].经济研究,2007,(11):123-138.
[9]Shi X,Liu X,Nuetah A,Xin X.The Determinants of Household Income Mobility in Rural China[J].China&World Economy,2010,18(2):41~59.
[10]杜冰青,吕之望.教育对农村居民收入流动性的影响[J].金融评论,2013,5(5):98-103,125-126.
[11]陈书伟.我国农户家庭收入流动性实证分析---基于CHNS农村样本数据的发现[J].经济经纬,2017,34(3):31-36.
[12]臧微,白雪梅.中国居民收入流动性的区域结构研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(7):57-73.
[13]杨穗,李实.中国城镇家庭的收入流动性[J].中国人口科学,2016,(5):78-89,127-128.
[14]王正位,邓颖惠,廖理.知识改变命运:金融知识与微观收入流动性[J].金融研究,2016,(12):111-127.
[15]张子豪,谭燕芝.社会保险与收入流动性[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(8):27-41.
[16]Hindman D B.The Rural-Urban Digital Divide[J].Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly,2000,77(3):549-560.
[17]Ernest P,Joseph M.How Information Technology Affects Wages:Evidence Using Internet Usage as a Proxy for IT Skills[J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(3):463-474.
[18]Dimaggio P,Bonikowski B.Make Money Surfing the Web?The Impact of Internet Use on the Earnings of U.S.Workers[J].American Sociological Review,2008,73(2):227-250.
[19]M Goos,A Manning,A Solomons.Job Polarization in Europe[J].American Economic Review,2009,99(2):58-63.
[20]Forman C,Goldfarb A,Greenstein S.The Internet and Local Wages:A Puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2012,102(1):556-575.
[21]Serrano-Cinca C,Mu1oz-Soro J F,Brusca I.A Multivariate Study of Internet Use and the Digital Divide[J].Social Science Quarterly,2018,(2).
[22]卜茂亮,罗华江,周耿.Internet对劳动力市场的影响---基于中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据的实证研究[J].南方人口,2011,26(5):1-10.
[23]李雅楠,谢倩芸.互联网使用与工资收入差距---基于CHNS数据的经验分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017,(7):87-100,26.
[24]毛宇飞,曾湘泉,胡文馨.互联网使用能否减小性别工资差距?---基于CFPS数据的经验分析[J].财经研究,2018,44(7):33-45.
[25]韩长根,张力.互联网普及对于城乡收入分配的影响---基于我国省际面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017,(8):18-27,8.
[26]Gao Y,Zang L,Sun J.Does Computer Penetration Increase Farmers'Income?An Empirical Study From China[J].Telecommunications Policy,2018,42(5).
[27]华昱.互联网使用的收入增长效应:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2018,(3):219-224.
[28]马光荣,杨恩艳.社会网络、非正规金融与创业[J].经济研究,2011,46(3):83-94.
[29]Fields G S,Ok E A.The Meaning and Measurement of Income Mobility[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1996,71(2):349-377.
[30]柴时军.社会网络与家庭创业决策---来自中国家庭追踪调查的经验证据[J].云南财经大学学报,2017,33(6):111-122.
[31]许艳丽,王岚.创新驱动发展战略下女性创业的新趋势、新挑战与新路径[J].科学管理研究,2017,35(3):91-93,113.
[32]宁光杰,马俊龙.互联网使用对女性劳动供给的影响[J].社会科学战线,2018,(2):75-83.