基于可拓学的铁路信号系统安全风险评价
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摘要
为更加准确全面的对计算机联锁系统安全风险进行评价,提出了基于博弈论与可拓学的计算机联锁系统安全风险评价模型,利用博弈论的思想将由G1法得到的主观权重与由熵权法确定的客观权重进行最优化组合从而得到最终权重,避免单独使用主观赋权法或客观赋权法使评价结果偏离实际的出现;将经典域物元与待评物元规格化,运用非对称贴近度代替最大隶属度原则,有效解决了最大隶属度的失效问题。将此模型应用到计算机联锁系统安全风险评价,结果表明该方法有效可行。
In order to analyze the security risk of the computer interlocking system more accurately and comprehensively, a risk evaluation model for the computer interlocking system is proposed based on the game theory and extenics theory. To achieve a more accurate assessment result, the idea of game theory is used to realize the optimization combination of the subjective weight which is determined by using the G1 method and the objective weight which is determined by using the entropy weight method. Normalizing the classical field matter-element and the evaluating matter-element and using unsymmetrical proximity replacing maximum membership degree principles could effectively solve the problem in the extension method. The analysis results show that the method is suitable for the safety analysis of computer interlocking systems.
In order to analyze the security risk of the computer interlocking system more accurately and comprehensively, a risk evaluation model for the computer interlocking system is proposed based on the game theory and extenics theory. To achieve a more accurate assessment result, the idea of game theory is used to realize the optimization combination of the subjective weight which is determined by using the G1 method and the objective weight which is determined by using the entropy weight method. Normalizing the classical field matter-element and the evaluating matter-element and using unsymmetrical proximity replacing maximum membership degree principles could effectively solve the problem in the extension method. The analysis results show that the method is suitable for the safety analysis of computer interlocking systems.
引文
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[2]刘敬辉,戴贤春,郭湛,等.铁路系统基于风险的定量安全评估方法[J].中国铁道科学,2009,30(5):123-128.Liu J H,Dai X C,Guo Z,et al.Quantitative Safety Assessment Method Based on Risk in Railway System[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,30(5):123-128.
[3]张友鹏,李远远.基于云模型和证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评估[J].铁道学报,2016,38(1):75-80.Zhang Y P,Li Y Y.Risk assessment of railway signal system based on cloud model and evidence theory[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(1):75-80.
[4]李玲玲,刘敬杰,凌跃胜等.物元理论和证据理论相结合的电能质量综合评估[J].电工技术学报,2015,30(12):383-391.Li L L,Liu J J,Ling Y S,et al.Power Quality Comprehensive Evaluation Based on Matter Element Theory and Evidence Theory[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2015,30(12):383-391.
[5]杨春燕,蔡文.可拓学[M].科学出版社,2014.Yang C Y,Cai W.Extenics[M].Science Press,2014.
[6]张晓平.基于贴近度的模糊综合评判结果的集化[J].山东大学学报:理学版,2004,39(2):25-29.Zhang X P.The definition of product about fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods based on closeness[J].Journal of Shandong Univ--ersity:Natural Science,2004,39(2):25-29.
[7]李泓泽,郭森,唐辉等.基于改进变权物元可拓模型的电能质量综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):653-659.Li H Z,Guo S,Tang H,et al.Comprehensive Evaluation on Power Quality Based on Improved Matter-Element Extension Model With Variable Weight[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(3):653-659.
[8]王永信.车站信号自动控制[M].中国铁道出版社,2007.Wang Y X.The station signal automatic control[M].China Railway Publishing House,2007.
[9]曹峰.计算机联锁系统安全评估分析与研究[J].高速铁路技术,2015,6(4):1-3.Cao F.Analysis and research on safety assessment of computer interlocking system[J].High Speed Railway Technology,2015,6(4):1-3.
[10]Xu Z J,Su H S.Risk assessment on railway signal system based on fuzzy-FMECA method[J].Sensors&Transducers.2013,156(9):203-210.
[11]杨扬,潘明,何梅芳.联锁软件的Petri网形式化定义[J].中国铁道科学,2002,23(3):49-54.Yang Y,Pan M,He M F.Formal Specification of the interlocking software using Petri nets[J].China Railway Science,2002,23(3):49-54.
[12]吴晓平,付钰.信息系统安全风险评估理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:83-94.Wu X P,Fu Y.The Assessment Theory and Method of Information System Security Risk[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:83-94.
[13]潘科,王洪德,石剑云.多级可拓评价方法在地铁运营安全评价中的应用[J].铁道学报,2011,33(5):14-19.Pan K,Wang H D,Shi J Y.Application of Multi-level Extensible Method to Urban Subway Operation Safety Evaluation[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2011,33(5):14-19.
[14]International Electrotechnical Commission.Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety related systems[S].IEC61508,2000.
[15]张亚东,郭进,戴贤春,等.基于多级可拓评价法的列车运行控制系统运营安全风险评价[J].中国铁道科学,2013,34(5):114-119.Zhang Y D,Guo J,Dai X C,et al.Operation Safety Risk Evaluation of Train Control System Based on Multilevel Extensible Evaluation Method[J].China Railway Science,2013,34(5):114-119.