从结构性视角看发达经济体“低通胀之谜”
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摘要
主要发达经济体通胀低迷背后的成因复杂,既有需求波动和供给冲击的扰动,也有来自一些制度性、周期性因素变化的长短期影响。基于结构性视角的分析,本文提出了加快完善货币政策目标、甄别影响通胀动态的新力量和作用机制、重视结构化经济社会改革方案的三个建议。
The low levels of inflation in major developed economies are due to a complex combination of factors. Fluctuations in demnd and supply surges are among those factors, but the long-and short-term effects of some institutional and cyclical factors also play a role. This paper examines the structural aspects of low inflation and puts forward three suggestions to address the issue: accelerate improvement in monetary policy, identify the new forces and mechanisms affecting inflation dynamics, and attach greater importance to structural economic and social reforms.
The low levels of inflation in major developed economies are due to a complex combination of factors. Fluctuations in demnd and supply surges are among those factors, but the long-and short-term effects of some institutional and cyclical factors also play a role. This paper examines the structural aspects of low inflation and puts forward three suggestions to address the issue: accelerate improvement in monetary policy, identify the new forces and mechanisms affecting inflation dynamics, and attach greater importance to structural economic and social reforms.
引文
1.片冈刚士.日本经济与货币政策将走向何方?[J].金融市场研究,2018(04):17-25.
2.殷剑峰等.分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机--关于美国次贷危机的理论思考[J].经济研究,2018,53(02):50-64.
3.彭文生.全球低通胀告诉我们什么?[R].杭州:2017英国《金融时报》年度高峰论坛.2017.
4.Razin,A.and P.Loungani.Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs.NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005,MIT Press,2007.
5.Benigno,Pierpaolo and Faia,Ester.Globalization,Pass-through and Inflation Dynamic.NBER Working Paper No.15842,National Bureau of Economic Research,March 2010.
(1)五维评价体系包括工资、劳动力配置效率、劳动力流动、雇主行为、就业市场信心五个维度(参见https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-market-distributions.aspx)。
(2)由于工会在制造业和建筑业所占比重高于服务业,所以中等技能职位(如制造业和房地产业)的消失也间接地削弱了工会的力量。
(1)参见https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm。
(1)欧洲、日本、英国和其他国家的央行已经开始探索这一选择,而加拿大央行每五年就会评估一次通胀目标,参见(https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4609196/Is-Fed-ready-consider-lifting-inflationtarget.html;https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf)。
2.殷剑峰等.分配差距扩大、信用扩张和金融危机--关于美国次贷危机的理论思考[J].经济研究,2018,53(02):50-64.
3.彭文生.全球低通胀告诉我们什么?[R].杭州:2017英国《金融时报》年度高峰论坛.2017.
4.Razin,A.and P.Loungani.Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs.NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005,MIT Press,2007.
5.Benigno,Pierpaolo and Faia,Ester.Globalization,Pass-through and Inflation Dynamic.NBER Working Paper No.15842,National Bureau of Economic Research,March 2010.
(1)五维评价体系包括工资、劳动力配置效率、劳动力流动、雇主行为、就业市场信心五个维度(参见https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/labor-market-distributions.aspx)。
(2)由于工会在制造业和建筑业所占比重高于服务业,所以中等技能职位(如制造业和房地产业)的消失也间接地削弱了工会的力量。
(1)参见https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm。
(1)欧洲、日本、英国和其他国家的央行已经开始探索这一选择,而加拿大央行每五年就会评估一次通胀目标,参见(https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4609196/Is-Fed-ready-consider-lifting-inflationtarget.html;https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf)。