一种基于重要抽样—序贯蒙特卡洛的运行可靠性评估方法
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摘要
传统可靠性评估方法不能准确描述时间尺度和运行条件对系统运行可靠性的影响,需研究一种快速有效的可靠性评估方法,既能提高可靠性评估效率,又计及时间尺度和系统运行行为。因此,本文在序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法的基础上,结合重要抽样法,提出一种基于重要抽样的序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法,以最优分布函数突出"重要事件",在保证精度要求的情况下,提高序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法的计算效率,并以IEEE-RTS79系统为算例,验证了本文方法的可行性和有效性。
Traditional reliability assessment methods cannot accurately describe the impact of time scales and operating conditions on system operational reliability. It is necessary to study a fast and effective reliability assessment method,which can improve the reliability evaluation efficiency and take into account the time scale and system operation behavior. Therefore,based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method and combined with the important sampling method,a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method based on important sampling is proposed. By highlighting the "important events"with the optimal distribution function,the computational efficiency of the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method can be improved while ensuring accuracy requirements. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the IEEE-RTS79 system.
Traditional reliability assessment methods cannot accurately describe the impact of time scales and operating conditions on system operational reliability. It is necessary to study a fast and effective reliability assessment method,which can improve the reliability evaluation efficiency and take into account the time scale and system operation behavior. Therefore,based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method and combined with the important sampling method,a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method based on important sampling is proposed. By highlighting the "important events"with the optimal distribution function,the computational efficiency of the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method can be improved while ensuring accuracy requirements. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the IEEE-RTS79 system.
引文
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[3]朱晓荣,王羽凝,金绘民,等.基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法的光伏电站可靠性评估[J].高电压技术,2017,43(3):1034-1042.
[4]侯雨伸,王秀丽,刘杰,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):744-750.
[5]暴英凯,王越,唐俊熙.序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(5):1189-1195.
[6]段炼,袁寿其,胡林峰,等.蒙特卡洛法在共轨系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].江苏大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):155-161.
[7]黄江宁,郭瑞鹏,赵舫,等.电力系统可靠性评估中的分层均匀抽样法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,32(20):19-24.
[8]王晓滨,郭瑞鹏,曹一家,等.用于系统可靠性评估的各阶故障独立重要抽样算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(16):24-31.
[9]魏艳华,王丙参,邢永忠.蒙特卡洛积分方法及其改进[J].统计与决策,2017(12):10-15.
[10]杜江.基于蒙特卡洛法的电力系统可靠性评估算法研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.
[11]叶梦姣.基于交叉熵的大电网可靠性序贯蒙特卡洛仿真研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2016.
[12]王景辰,李孝全,杨洋,等.基于交叉熵的蒙特卡洛法在发电系统充裕度评估中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(20):75-79.
[13]蒋程,王硕,王宝庆,等.基于拉丁超立方采样的含风电电力系统的概率可靠性评估[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(10):193-206.
[14]张巍峰,车延博,刘阳升.电力系统可靠性评估中的改进拉丁超立方抽样方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(4):52-57.
[15]王晶,李岩,张海鹰,等.基于改进抽样方法的电力系统可靠性评估研究[J].仪表技术,2015(9):36-38.