夏半年西南暴雨洪涝灾害变化特征及其与大气环流的关系
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摘要
利用中国气象科学数据共享服务网提供的1961—2017年间90个地面气象观测台站的逐日降水量,进行西南片区(四川、贵州、云南和重庆市)洪涝灾害时空变化特征的分析,再挑选其高、低值年与大气环流的关系进行讨论,最后制作高值年与低值年的差值图与相关系数图进行比较分析.研究结果表明:西南暴雨洪涝灾害主要发生在主汛期6—8月,但5月和9月也不容忽视,其中7月是洪灾发生次数最多的月份,8月其次;近57年来,20世纪70年代至80年代和21世纪10年代发生的洪灾次数整体呈明显上升趋势,而20世纪90年代整体呈下降趋势;小波分析主要存在8～9 a的年际周期变化和17 a左右及32 a左右的年代际周期变化;西南地区的洪灾高发区主要在四川盆地以东至贵州北部一带、贵州西南部和云南南部边缘地区,低值区主要在西南地区西北部;洪涝灾害与其高层、中层和低层的环流形势有较好的配置关系.
Choose the Southwest area(Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan and Chongqing) daily precipitation of 90 meteorological stations in the summer half year during 1961—2017,the characteristic's temporal and spatial variation of flood and waterlogging disaster are analyzed.To select the high and low abnormal circulation situation discussion,and make differential diagram(both for high value minus low years) comparing with correlation coefficient structure diagram.The resuits showed that the torrential rain and flood disaster in Southwest China mainly occurred in the main flood season from June to August.But May and September should not be ignored.July was the most frequent month,followed by August.In the past 57 years,1970 s to 1980 s and 2010 s,the number of floods was on the rise,and the overall decline in the 1990 s,there was a decreasing trend.The wavelet analysis 8—9 a of the annual cycle changes,interdecadal cycle changes of about 17 and 32 years.The high flood risk areas in Southwest China are mainly located in the East of Sichuan Basin to the northern part of Guizhou,southwestern Guizhou and southern Yunnan marginal areas.The low value area is mainly in the Northwest of Southwest Region.Flood disaster and its abnormal circulation has good configuration.
Choose the Southwest area(Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan and Chongqing) daily precipitation of 90 meteorological stations in the summer half year during 1961—2017,the characteristic's temporal and spatial variation of flood and waterlogging disaster are analyzed.To select the high and low abnormal circulation situation discussion,and make differential diagram(both for high value minus low years) comparing with correlation coefficient structure diagram.The resuits showed that the torrential rain and flood disaster in Southwest China mainly occurred in the main flood season from June to August.But May and September should not be ignored.July was the most frequent month,followed by August.In the past 57 years,1970 s to 1980 s and 2010 s,the number of floods was on the rise,and the overall decline in the 1990 s,there was a decreasing trend.The wavelet analysis 8—9 a of the annual cycle changes,interdecadal cycle changes of about 17 and 32 years.The high flood risk areas in Southwest China are mainly located in the East of Sichuan Basin to the northern part of Guizhou,southwestern Guizhou and southern Yunnan marginal areas.The low value area is mainly in the Northwest of Southwest Region.Flood disaster and its abnormal circulation has good configuration.
引文
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[21] 熊伟,罗喜平,周明飞.贵州2次MCC暴雨诊断和触发机制对比分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2014,36(1):66-78.
[22] 赵永辉,刘开宇.一次贵州暴雨过程的湿位涡诊断分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(S2):386-389.
[23] 郁淑华.西南地区洪涝灾害的监测与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[2] 冯强,陶诗言,王昂生,等.暴雨洪涝灾害对社会经济和人民生活的影响分析[J].灾害学,2001,16(3):44-48.
[3] 冯水志,罗德富.西南地区洪涝灾害区划[J].山地研究,1995,13 (4 ) :255-260.
[4] 国家科委全国重大自然灾害综合研究组.中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(分论) [M].北京:科学出版社,1994:120-134,237-345.
[5] 田维钊,姚德淳.四川自然灾害述要——1990年四川救灾年鉴[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1991.
[6] 程卫帅,陈进,刘丹.洪灾风险评估方法研究综述[J].长江科学院院报,2010,9(27):17-24.
[7] 李翠金.中国暴雨洪涝的统计分析[J].灾害学,1996,11(1):59-63.
[8] 王雪臣,冷春香,冯相昭,等.长江中游地区洪涝灾害风险分析[J].科技导报,2008,26(2):61-62.
[9] WERRITTY A.Use of multi-proxy flood records to improve estimates of flood risk:Lower River Tay,Scotland[J].Catena,2006,66(1):107-119.
[10] 李吉顺,冯强,王昂生.我国暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性评估:台风、暴雨灾害性天气监测、预报技术研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.
[11] 黄崇福,刘新立,周国贤,等.以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评估方法[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(22):1-8.
[12] 万君,周月华,王迎迎.基于GIS的湖北省区域洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(4):328-333.
[13] 宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS技术的广东洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58-63.
[14] 蒋庆丰,游珍.基于GIS的南通市自然灾害风险区划[J].灾害学,2005,20(2):110-143.
[15] 田红,陆维松,吴必文.基于GIS的气象灾害监测与评估集成系统[J].气象科学,2002,22(4):482-487.
[16] 叶正伟.重庆市洪涝灾害研究[D].重庆:西南师范大学,2001.
[17] 卢瑞荆.贵州暴雨洪涝的气候特征分析[D].甘肃:兰州大学,2010.
[18] 何华,孙绩华.高低空急流在云南大范围暴雨过程中的作用及共同特征[J].高原气象,2004,23(5):629-634.
[19] 刘永明,盛永昆.楚雄州“2013.8.29”强降水天气过程分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2014,36(S1):95-102.
[20] 陈小华,李华宏,何钰,等.2015年9月15—16日华坪及昌宁大暴雨中尺度特征分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(2):225-234.
[21] 熊伟,罗喜平,周明飞.贵州2次MCC暴雨诊断和触发机制对比分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2014,36(1):66-78.
[22] 赵永辉,刘开宇.一次贵州暴雨过程的湿位涡诊断分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(S2):386-389.
[23] 郁淑华.西南地区洪涝灾害的监测与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.