基于非参数回归改进的太湖总磷压力-响应模型
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摘要
针对现有压力-响应模型存在的不足,以非参数LOWESS稳健回归改进湖泊压力-响应模型,构建了太湖TP与Chl-a的非参数LOWESS稳健回归压力-响应模型,推断出太湖TP参照状态质量浓度为0. 018 mg/L;通过自助法得出其95%置信区间为0. 013～0. 030 mg/L,同时从多角度验证了结果的合理性。
In view of the shortages existing in the present stressor-response model,the stressor-response model of lake was improved by nonparametric LOWESS robust regression. Taking Taihu Lake as a case,a nonparametric LOWESS robust regression stressor-response model of total phosphorus and chlorophyll a was constructed. The reference condition concentration of total phosphorus in Taihu Lake was deduced as 0. 018 mg/l,and the 95% confidence interval was 0. 013-0. 030 mg/l by bootstrap method. The rationality of the result is verified from multi angle.
In view of the shortages existing in the present stressor-response model,the stressor-response model of lake was improved by nonparametric LOWESS robust regression. Taking Taihu Lake as a case,a nonparametric LOWESS robust regression stressor-response model of total phosphorus and chlorophyll a was constructed. The reference condition concentration of total phosphorus in Taihu Lake was deduced as 0. 018 mg/l,and the 95% confidence interval was 0. 013-0. 030 mg/l by bootstrap method. The rationality of the result is verified from multi angle.
引文
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[28]中国科学院南京地理研究所.太湖综合调查初步报告[M].北京:科学出版社,1965.
[2]LAMON E C,QIAN S S. Regional scale stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystem[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2008,44:771-781.
[3] US Environmental Protection Agency. Using stressorresponse relationships to derive numeric nutrient criteria[R]. Washington D C:US Environmental Protection Agency,2010.
[4]HAGGARD B E,SCOTT J T,LONGING S D. Sestonic chlorophyll-a shows hierarchical structure and thresholds with nutrients across the Red River Basin,USA[J].Journal of Environmental Quality,2013,42:437-445.
[5]QIAN S S,MILTNER R J. A continuous variable Bayesian networks model for water quality modeling:a case study of setting nitrogen criterion for small rivers and streams in Ohio,USA[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2015,69:14-22.
[6]姜甜甜.我国湖泊生态分区技术及应用研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2014.
[7]HUO Shouliang,MA Chunzi,XI Beidou,et al. Lake ecoregion and nutrient criteria development in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,46:1-10.
[8]HUO Shouliang,XI Beidou,MA Chunzi,et al. Stressresponse models:a practical application for the development of lake nutrient criteria in China[J]. Environmental Science&Technology,2013,47:11922-11923.
[9]ZHANG Yali,HUO Shouliang,MA Chunzi,et al. Using stressor-response models to derive numeric nutrient criteria for lakes in the Eastern Plain Ecoregion,China[J].CLEAN-Soil,Air,Water,2014,42(11):1509-1517.
[10]HUO Shouliang,MA Chunzi,XI Beidou,et al.Determining ecoregional numeric nutrient criteria by stressor-response models in Yungui ecoregion lakes,China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2014,21:8831-8846.
[11]HUO Shouliang,MA Chunzi,XI Beidou,et al. Nonparametric approaches for estimating regional lake nutrient thresholds[J]. Ecological Indicators,2015,58:225-234.
[12]吴超,胡友彪,苏婧,等.基于压力响应关系法的湖泊营养物基准制定[J].环境工程学报,2015,9(6):2631-2638.(WU Chao,HU Youbiao,SU Jing,et al. Using stressor-response analysis to derive nutrient criteria for lakes[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2015,9(6):2631-2638.(in Chinese))
[13]ZHANG Yali,HUO Shouliang,XI Beidou,et al.Establishing nutrient criteria in nine typical lakes,China:a conceptual model[J]. CLEAN-Soil,Air,Water,2016,44(10):1335-1344.
[14]霍守亮,席北斗.湖泊营养物基准制定的压力-响应模型及案例研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[15]霍守亮,马春子,席北斗,等.湖泊营养物基准研究进展[J].环境工程技术学报,2017,7(2):125-133.(HUO Shouliang,MA Chunzi,XI Beidou,et al. Progress in research on lake nutrient criteria[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2017,7(2):125-133.(in Chinese))
[16]张洪举,甘升伟,袁洪州,等.环太湖河流入湖水质控制浓度分析[J].水资源保护,2012,28(6):8-11.(ZHANG Hongju,GAN Shengwei,YUAN Hongzhou,et al. Analysis of controlled concentration of water quality of rivers around Taihu Lake[J]. Water Resources Protection,2012,28(6):8-11.(in Chinese))
[17]陆桂华,张建华.太湖水环境综合治理的现状、问题及对策[J].水资源保护,2014,28(2):67-69.(LU Guihua,ZHANG Jianhua. Present status and problems of comprehensive treatment of water environment in Taihu Lake and countermeasures[J]. Water Resources Protection,2014,28(2):67-69.(in Chinese))
[18]CLEVELAND W S. Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatter plots[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1979,74:829-836.
[19]秦伯强,胡春华.中国生态系统定位观测与研究数据集:湖泊湿地海湾生态系统卷江苏太湖站(1991—2006)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2010.
[20]汪靓,华祖林,顾莉,等.中国东部浅水湖泊参照状态确定的非参数方法[J].水科学进展,2014(5):724-730.(WANG Liang,HUA Zulin,GU Li,et al. Nonparametric method for determining the reference condition of shallow lakes in eastern China[J]. Advances in Water Science.2014(5):724-730.(in Chinese))
[21]张波,张路.太湖水体固氮速率时空变化[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(4):1129-1136.(ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Lu. Spatial-seasonal variations of nitrogen fixation of water column in Taihu Lake[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(4):1129-1136.(in Chinese))
[22]QIAN Song.环境与生态统计:R语言的应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011.
[23]郭茹,杨京平,梁新强,等.太湖苕溪流域氮磷的生物学阈值评估[J].环境科学学报,2013,33(10):2756-2765.(GUO Ru,YANG Jingping,LIANG Xinqiang,et al.Biological threshold of nitrogen and phosphorus in Tiaoxi River, Taihu Lake Basin[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2013,33(10):2756-2765.(in Chinese))
[24]HUO Shouliang, ZAN Fengyu, CHEN Qi, et al.Determining reference conditions for nutrients,chlorophylla and Secchi depth in Yungui Plateau ecoregion lakes,China[J]. Water and Environment Journal,2012,26:324-334.
[25]HUO Shouliang,XI Beidou,SU Jing,et al. Determining reference conditions for TN,TP,SD and Chl-a in eastern plain ecoregion lakes,China[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2013,25(5):1001-1006.
[26]郑丙辉,许秋瑾,周保华,等.水体营养物及其响应指标基准制定过程中建立参照状态的方法:以典型浅水湖泊太湖为例[J].湖泊科学,2009,21(1):21-26.(ZHENG Binghui,XU Qiujin,ZHOU Baohua,et al.Building nutrient and its response indications reference state for criteria enaction:on the case of Lake Taihu,a typical shallow lake in eastern China[J]. Journal of Lake Science,2009,21(1):21-26.(in Chinese))
[27]顾莉,李秋兰,华祖林,等.确定太湖流域湖库总磷参照浓度的改进MEI模型[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(3):347-351.(GU Li,LI Qiulan,HUA Zulin,et al. The improved MEI model for forecasting TP reference condition in Lake Taihu basin[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(3):347-351.(in Chinese))
[28]中国科学院南京地理研究所.太湖综合调查初步报告[M].北京:科学出版社,1965.