山西省旅游交通碳排放测度及其演变机理
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摘要
利用世界旅游组织(UNWTO)的计算方法,以山西省为案例地,测度2004—2015年山西省铁路、公路、民航等旅游交通碳排放量及其演化过程;同时利用Kaya等式和LMDI分解模型分析测算山西省旅游交通碳排放的影响因素,从游客数量、人均旅游消费水平、旅游产业对生产总值的贡献率、单位GDP客运交通周转量、单位客运交通周转量能耗、能源结构六大方面,测度并探讨山西省旅游交通碳排放的主要机理,分析结果显示:促进旅游交通碳排放增长的主要影响因素是游客数量、人均旅游消费水平和单位交通周转量的能耗;旅游产业的产值占GDP比重、单位GDP客运交通周转量和能源结构是有效抑制碳排放增长的因素。
Tourism carbon emissions with the rapid development of tourism increase year by year. In the context of energy conservation and emission reduction, how to better achieve the carbon reduction of tourism is an urgent issue to be concerned about. In this paper, We take Shanxi Province as research area and measure its carbon emissions in tourism transportation and evolution process of railway traffic, highway and civil aviation from 2004 to 2015 utilizing the method of World Tourism Organization(UNWTO). At the same time, we analyze the influencing factors of tourism traffic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province by the methods of Kaya equation decomposition and LMDI model. From the tourist amount, the level of per capita tourism consumption, the contribution rate of the tourism industry to the GDP, turnover of passenger per unit GDP, energy consumption per unit turnover of passenger, energy structure, we explore the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of tourism transportation in Shanxi Province. The results show: tourist amount, the level of per capita tourism consumption and energy consumption per unit turnover of passenger are the main factors that cause the growth of tourism traffic, while the contribution rate of tourism industry to the GDP, turnover of passenger per unit GDP and energy structure have a negative effect on carbon emissions of tourism traffic. It is hoped that it can provide decisionmaking reference for the implementation of the corresponding policies and emission reduction measures of regional "lowcarbon tourism".
Tourism carbon emissions with the rapid development of tourism increase year by year. In the context of energy conservation and emission reduction, how to better achieve the carbon reduction of tourism is an urgent issue to be concerned about. In this paper, We take Shanxi Province as research area and measure its carbon emissions in tourism transportation and evolution process of railway traffic, highway and civil aviation from 2004 to 2015 utilizing the method of World Tourism Organization(UNWTO). At the same time, we analyze the influencing factors of tourism traffic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province by the methods of Kaya equation decomposition and LMDI model. From the tourist amount, the level of per capita tourism consumption, the contribution rate of the tourism industry to the GDP, turnover of passenger per unit GDP, energy consumption per unit turnover of passenger, energy structure, we explore the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of tourism transportation in Shanxi Province. The results show: tourist amount, the level of per capita tourism consumption and energy consumption per unit turnover of passenger are the main factors that cause the growth of tourism traffic, while the contribution rate of tourism industry to the GDP, turnover of passenger per unit GDP and energy structure have a negative effect on carbon emissions of tourism traffic. It is hoped that it can provide decisionmaking reference for the implementation of the corresponding policies and emission reduction measures of regional "lowcarbon tourism".
引文
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[20]Ang B W,Su B.Carbon emission intensity in electricity production:A global analysis[J].Energy Policy,2016,94:56-63.
[21]王微,林剑艺,崔胜辉,等.碳足迹分析方法研究综述[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(7):71-78.
[22]UNWTO,UNEP,WMO.Climate Change and Tourism:Responding to Global Challenges[M].Madrid:UNWTO,2008.
[23]吴文化.我国交通运输行业能源消费和碳排放与典型国家的比较[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):19-22.
[24]Kuo N,Chen P,Quantifying energy use,carbon dioxide emission,and other environmental loads from island tourism based on a life cycle assessment approach[J].Journal of cleaner pro‐duction,2009(17):1 324-1 330.
[25]Ang B W,Zhang F Q.A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies[J].Energy,2000,25(12):1 149-1 176.
[26]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:Which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1 131-1 139.
[27]Ang B W.The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis:a practical guide[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(7):867-881.
[28]Kaya Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:interpretation of proposed scenarios[R].IPCC.Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Work‐ing Group,Paris1989:1-25.
[29]汪宏韬.基于LMDI的上海市能源消费碳排放实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(S2):143-146.
[30]吴开亚,何彩虹,王桂新,等.上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):45-51.
[31]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证研究:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.
[32]张雷.经济发展对碳排放的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):629-637.
[2]王喜,张艳,秦耀辰,等.我国碳排放变化影响因素的时空分异与调控[J].经济地理,2016,36(8):158-165.
[3]李建豹,黄贤金,吴常艳,等.中国省域碳排放影响因素的空间异质性分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(11):21-28.
[4]陆化普.城市绿色交通的实现途径[J].城市交通,2009,7(6):23-27.
[5]何吉成,李耀增.1975-2005年中国铁路机车的CO2排放量[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(1):35-39.
[6]明庆忠,陈英,李庆雷.低碳旅游:旅游产业生态化的战略选择[J].人文地理,2010,25(5):22-26,127.
[7]石培华,吴普.中国旅游业能源消耗与CO2排放量的初步估算[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):235-243.
[8]Yorucu V.Growth impact of CO2emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey:an econometric approach[J].International Journal of Climate Change Strategies&Management,2016,8(1):19-37.
[9]魏艳旭,孙根年,马丽君,等.中国旅游交通碳排放及地区差异的初步估算[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2012,40(2):76-84.
[10]肖潇,张捷,卢俊宇,等.旅游交通碳排放的空间结构与情景分析[J].生态学报,2012(23):7 540-7 548.
[11]李伯华,刘云鹏,窦银娣.旅游风景区旅游交通系统碳足迹评估及影响因素分析--以南岳衡山为例[J].资源科学,2012(5):956-963.
[12]陶玉国,黄震方,史春云.基于替代式自下而上法的区域旅游交通碳排放测度[J].生态学报,2015,35(12):4 224-4 233.
[13]包战雄,袁书琪,陈光水.不同游客吸引半径景区国内旅游交通碳排放特征比较[J].地理科学,2012(10):1 168-1 175.
[14]王佳,薛景洁.旅游交通碳排放测算及影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2016(13):61-64.
[15]丁长安,田红.山东省旅游交通碳排放量估算及结果分析[J].对外经贸,2015(2):52-54.
[16]孙晋坤,章锦河,刘泽华,等.区域旅游交通碳排放测度模型及实证分析[J].生态学报,2015,35(21):7 161-7 171.
[17]郭朝先.中国碳排放因素分解:基于LMDI分解技术[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(12):4-9.
[18]陈昆仑,郭宇琪,刘小琼,等.长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素[J].地理科学,2017,37(11):1 668-1 677.
[19]王开,傅利平.京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):115-121.
[20]Ang B W,Su B.Carbon emission intensity in electricity production:A global analysis[J].Energy Policy,2016,94:56-63.
[21]王微,林剑艺,崔胜辉,等.碳足迹分析方法研究综述[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(7):71-78.
[22]UNWTO,UNEP,WMO.Climate Change and Tourism:Responding to Global Challenges[M].Madrid:UNWTO,2008.
[23]吴文化.我国交通运输行业能源消费和碳排放与典型国家的比较[J].中国能源,2007,29(10):19-22.
[24]Kuo N,Chen P,Quantifying energy use,carbon dioxide emission,and other environmental loads from island tourism based on a life cycle assessment approach[J].Journal of cleaner pro‐duction,2009(17):1 324-1 330.
[25]Ang B W,Zhang F Q.A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies[J].Energy,2000,25(12):1 149-1 176.
[26]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:Which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1 131-1 139.
[27]Ang B W.The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis:a practical guide[J].Energy Policy,2005,33(7):867-881.
[28]Kaya Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:interpretation of proposed scenarios[R].IPCC.Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Work‐ing Group,Paris1989:1-25.
[29]汪宏韬.基于LMDI的上海市能源消费碳排放实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(S2):143-146.
[30]吴开亚,何彩虹,王桂新,等.上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):45-51.
[31]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证研究:1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.
[32]张雷.经济发展对碳排放的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):629-637.