基于滑动Copula函数的新疆干旱内陆河流水文气象要素变异关系诊断
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摘要
选取乌伦古河流域源流区出山口二台水文站1959—2015年长系列实测月径流量和同步气象观测资料,采用累积距平法、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,在对水文、气象要素序列演变规律分析的基础上,运用Person相关系数法分析径流与降水、气温的相关性,将Copula函数与数据滑动窗口技术相结合分析了径流与气象要素(降水、气温)的内在关系及变异特征。结果表明:(1)乌伦古河源流区年径流量以0.026亿m3/10a的微速率波动减少,减少趋势不显著(Uα/2=-1.960.5),增加趋势显著(U=2.57>Uα/2=1.96);(2)年降水量是影响乌伦古河源流区径流量的最主要因子;(3)将年降水作为气象因子与径流量构成联合序列,进行基于滑动Copula函数对乌伦古河流域源流区长系列径流—降水联合序列进行了变异特征分析与变异点诊断,表明:其径流—降水关系变异点位是1979年,且由第一阶段(1959—1979年)的Clayton-Copula函数分布变异到第二阶段(1980—2015年)的Gauss-Copula函数分布。研究结果与实际相符,造成该研究区径流序列变异的原因主要归结为第一阶段(1959—1979年)降水量和年均气温的显著减小趋势,以及1980年以后由于人类活动强度加大,二台水文站以上干支流先后修建了库容总量约3 000万m3的水库,对流域降水产汇流及河道上下游径流间的自然相关关系的改变。
The monthly runoff and meteorological data covering the years from 1959 to 2015 were collected from the Ertai hydrological station at the mountain-pass of the Ulungur River Basin headstream area to synthetically analyze the period and the trend of hydrological and meteorological elements using the cumulative average deviation,R/S analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test.Furthermore,the correlations between runoff,precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the Pearson correlation method,while the internal relationship and the variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature were analyzed by combining the Copula function with the data sliding window technology.The results found that the annual runoff in the headstream area of the Ulungur River decreased with the micro rate fluctuation of 2.6×106 m3/decade and the trend would increase(Hurst index H=0.36<0.5)with a less significant tendency(Uα/2=-1.960.5)in a significant tendency(U=2.57>Ua/2=1.96)in the future,and annual precipitation was the most importantfactor affecting runoff in Ulungur River Basin headstream area.Combing annual precipitation with annual runoff to form joint sequence,we analyzed the variation characteristics and the variation point diagnosis of the long runoff and precipitation joint sequence in Ulungur River Basin headstream area on the basis of sliding Copula function.The variation of runoff precipitation relationship occurred in 1979,while the Clayton-Copula distribution function in the first stage(1959—1979)shifted to the Gauss-Copula distribution function in the second stage(1980—2015).The results of this study can reflect the real-world scenario.The primary reason for the variation in the runoff sequence in the study area was the significant decreasing trend in the precipitation and annual average temperature in the first stage(1959—1979)along with the increase in the intensity of human activities since 1980.The construction of the reservoir with the total volume of about 30 million m3 on trunk stream and tributaries upper of the Ertai hydrological station changed the natural correlation between the runoff yield and concentration of the basin,and the runoff between the upstream and downstream.
The monthly runoff and meteorological data covering the years from 1959 to 2015 were collected from the Ertai hydrological station at the mountain-pass of the Ulungur River Basin headstream area to synthetically analyze the period and the trend of hydrological and meteorological elements using the cumulative average deviation,R/S analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test.Furthermore,the correlations between runoff,precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the Pearson correlation method,while the internal relationship and the variation characteristics between runoff and meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature were analyzed by combining the Copula function with the data sliding window technology.The results found that the annual runoff in the headstream area of the Ulungur River decreased with the micro rate fluctuation of 2.6×106 m3/decade and the trend would increase(Hurst index H=0.36<0.5)with a less significant tendency(Uα/2=-1.96
引文
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[23]杨霞.基于SWAT模型的乌伦古河流域气候变化对径流影响研究[J].新疆环境保护,2015,37(1):45-50.
[24] Nelsen R B.An introduction to Copulas[M].New York:Springer,1999.
[25]李疆,加帕尔,卡德尔.乌伦古河径流及布伦托海湖水位多年变化的初步分析[J].新疆地理,1981(1):10-18.
[26]孟古别克·俄布拉依汗,贾尔恒·阿哈提,程艳,等.乌伦古河断流原因分析及对策[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):139-142.
[2]张连鹏,刘登峰,张鸿雪,等.气候变化和人类活动对北洛河径流的影响[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(7):55-66.
[3]张岩,张建军,张艳得,等.三江源区径流长期变化趋势对降水响应的空间差异[J].环境科学研究,2017,30(1):40-50.
[4]王修内,黄强,畅建霞.新疆叶尔羌河流域径流规律分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(6):45-47,50.
[5]刘艺,雷晓云,马红刚,等.巴音沟河近60年出山口年径流量演变规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(2):139-142.
[6]何兵,高凡,闫正龙,等.叶尔羌河径流演变规律与变异特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):38-43,49.
[7]郭彦,侯素珍,林秀芝.近51年西柳沟流域水沙变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(10):176-183.
[8]陈广才,谢平.水文变异的滑动F识别与检验方法[J].水文,2006,26(5):57-60.
[9]陈广圣,王义民,刘登峰,等.基于滑动相关系数法的流域径流变异诊断[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(1):11-18.
[10]郭爱军,黄强,王义民,等.基于Archimedean Copula函数的流域降雨—径流关系变异分析[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(6):7-13.
[11]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.
[12]李艳玲,畅建霞,黄强,等.基于滑动Copula函数的降水和径流关系变异诊断[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(6):20-24,60.
[13]叶明华,汪荣明,丁越,等.基于Copula相依函数的安徽省气温与降雨量相关性研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):110-117.
[14] Abegaz F,Naik-Nimbalkar U V.Modeling statistical dependence of Markov chains via Copula models[J].Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference,2008,138(4):1131-1146.
[15]罗栋梁,金会军.黄河源区玛多县1953—2012年气温和降水特征及突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):185-192.
[16]陈青青,陈超群,杨志勇,等.阿克苏河径流演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):88-93,99.
[17]努尔兰·哈再孜.乌伦古河流域水文特征[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(5):798-802.
[18]努尔兰·哈再孜,沈永平,马哈提·穆拉提别克.气候变化对阿尔泰山乌伦古河流域径流过程的影响[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(3):699-705.
[19]王振升,程同福,刘开华,等.乌伦古河流域水资源及其特征[J].干旱区地理,2000,23(2):123-128.
[20]蒙坚玲.相依时间序列的Copula分析[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2004.
[21]刁心薇.Copula函数的非参数估计方法[D].长春:吉林大学,2005.
[22]宋松柏,蔡焕杰,金菊良,等.Copulas函数及其在水文中的应用.[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.
[23]杨霞.基于SWAT模型的乌伦古河流域气候变化对径流影响研究[J].新疆环境保护,2015,37(1):45-50.
[24] Nelsen R B.An introduction to Copulas[M].New York:Springer,1999.
[25]李疆,加帕尔,卡德尔.乌伦古河径流及布伦托海湖水位多年变化的初步分析[J].新疆地理,1981(1):10-18.
[26]孟古别克·俄布拉依汗,贾尔恒·阿哈提,程艳,等.乌伦古河断流原因分析及对策[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(9):139-142.