考虑决策者心理行为的应急决策模型
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摘要
突发事件情况下,应急信息具有不确定性,并且存在决策者心理行为影响应急决策结果的现象,为此文章提出了一种考虑决策者心理行为的应急决策模型。依据突发事件下决策者的心理行为特征构造出新直觉模糊得分函数,并通过性质和对比算例说明其合理性和优越性;基于新得分函数和直觉模糊熵建立了考虑心理行为的应急决策模型。最后通过某市森林火灾的应急决策实例,表明了提出的决策模型更具合理性和全面性。
引文
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[2]Druckman J N,Mcdermott R.Emotion and the Framing of Risky Choice[J].Political Behavior,2008,30(3).
[3]Yumashev D,Johnson P.Flexible Decision Making in the Wake of Large Scale Nuclear Emergencies:Long-term Response[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,261(1).
[4]Chanamool N,Naenna T.Fuzzy FMEA Application to Improve Decision-making Process in an Emergency Department[J].Applied Soft Computing,2016,(43).
[5]Lovreglio R,Fonzone A,Olioc L,Borri D.A study of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Emergencies Based on Random Utility Theory[J].Safety Science,2016,(82).
[6]包兴.过度自信行为影响下的应急决策偏差和惩罚援助机制研究[J].管理工程学报,2017,31(3).
[7]Atanassov K T.Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1986,20(1).
[8]Chen S M,Tan J M.Handling Multicriteria Fuzzy Decision-making Problems Based on Vague Set Theory[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1994,(67).
[9]Hong D H,Choi C H.Multi-criteria Fuzzy Decision-making Problems Based on Vague Set Theory[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2000,(114).
[10]Liu H W,Wang G J.Multi-criteria Decision-making Methods Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2007,(179).
[11]Lin L,Yuan X H,Xia Z Q.Multicriteria Fuzzy Decision-making Methods Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets[J].Journal of Computer and System Sciences,2007,(73).
[12]吴静杰,杨乃定.一种基于直觉模糊数的应急群决策方法[J].统计与决策,2015,(17).
[13]徐选华,蔡晨光,王佩等.面向具有多部门多指标特征的复杂大群体应急决策方法[J].控制与决策,2016,31(2).