气温变动对我国蔬菜价格指数影响的实证分析——基于全国173个城市最低气温与28种重点监测蔬菜批发均价
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摘要
通过对气温变动值与CPI菜价变动率分析发现气温变动对蔬菜价格领先约4个旬度且全国28种重点监测蔬菜批发均价可代表CPI鲜菜指数,每年春冬季节蔬菜价格指数波动最为显著;构建VAR模型发现:旬度蔬菜价格指数变动受自身前四期冲击,系数分别为1.58、-1.21、0.83以及-0.3,受气温变动值冲击系数为-1.052018年4、5月CPI鲜菜旬同比价格指数下降,同时蔬菜价格在4、5月份价格也将下降.
By means of the temperature changes value and CPI price rate of change analysis found that the temperature changes of vegetable prices leading aim of about 4 degrees and national monitoring of 28 kinds of vegetables wholesale price represents the CPI index of fresh vegetables,every year the most significant festival in the spring and winter vegetables price index fluctuation; Build VAR model discovery:ten-day impact vegetable price index changes are effected by itself first four period,coefficient were 1.58,1.21,0.83 and 0.83,the value by the temperature changes impact coefficient is 1.05,CPI ten-day price index compare with the same is decreased in April and May 2018,at the sa-me time the price also will fall in April and May.
By means of the temperature changes value and CPI price rate of change analysis found that the temperature changes of vegetable prices leading aim of about 4 degrees and national monitoring of 28 kinds of vegetables wholesale price represents the CPI index of fresh vegetables,every year the most significant festival in the spring and winter vegetables price index fluctuation; Build VAR model discovery:ten-day impact vegetable price index changes are effected by itself first four period,coefficient were 1.58,1.21,0.83 and 0.83,the value by the temperature changes impact coefficient is 1.05,CPI ten-day price index compare with the same is decreased in April and May 2018,at the sa-me time the price also will fall in April and May.
引文
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[10]代明慧,张红丽,王浩淼.蔬菜价格波动特征及其影响因素分析-基于山东省蔬菜种植户的问卷调查[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(6):444-447.
[11]随学超,周应恒,耿献辉.我国蔬菜价格短期波动的结构性特征分析[J].价格理论与实践,2015(10):50-52.
[12]唐占彪,王炳文.基于ARIMA模型的甘肃省2015年蔬莱价格预测[J].甘肃农业科技,2016(2):16-20.
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[14]马晓春,宋莉莉.菜价波动原因与调控政策评价[J].农业展望,2011(6):55-58.
[2]Wohlgenant M K.Competitive storage,rational expectations,and short-run food price determination[J].Amer J Agr Econ,1985,67(4):739-748.
[3]Schroeter J,Azzam A.Marketing margins,market power,and price uncertainty[J].American Jour-nal of Agricultural Economics,2004,73(4):1356-1356.
[4]Jonathan McCarthy.Pass-through of exchange rates andimport prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,1999,33(4):511-537.
[5]Simla Tokgoz.The impact of energy markets on the EU agricultural sector[D].Center for Agricultural and R ural Development,Iowa State University,2009.
[6]Simla Tokgoz.The impact of energy markets on the EU agricultural sector[D].Center for Agricultural and R ural Development,lowa State University,2009.
[7]杜俊.基于小波分析的蔬菜价格波动及与气候关系研究:以江苏省典型蔬菜为例[D].南京:南京农业大学,2008.
[8]刘玲,岳书铭.蔬菜产销价格波动差异与非对称性传导分析[J].价格理论与实践,2016(9):111-114.
[9]陈智勇,李雪燕.2004至2010年重庆蔬菜价格走势特点与影响因素浅析[J].南方农业,2011,5(1):57-60.
[10]代明慧,张红丽,王浩淼.蔬菜价格波动特征及其影响因素分析-基于山东省蔬菜种植户的问卷调查[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(6):444-447.
[11]随学超,周应恒,耿献辉.我国蔬菜价格短期波动的结构性特征分析[J].价格理论与实践,2015(10):50-52.
[12]唐占彪,王炳文.基于ARIMA模型的甘肃省2015年蔬莱价格预测[J].甘肃农业科技,2016(2):16-20.
[13]李忠国.“菜贱伤农,与“菜贵伤民”并存的原因及对策[J].北京农业职业学院学报,2011(5):30-34.
[14]马晓春,宋莉莉.菜价波动原因与调控政策评价[J].农业展望,2011(6):55-58.