农户从众行为对农产品价格波动影响研究
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摘要
价格是市场引导资源配置的指标器。农户从众行为会损害信息加总的效率,导致市场运行低效。构建了描述农产品市场价格的平均预期模型和波动模型,应用计算实验经济学方法,模拟了农户从众行为对农产品价格波动以及市场效率的影响。结果表明:在轻度从众行为区间,农产品价格呈现轻微的周期性波动;在中度从众行为区间,农产品价格在经历一段时期的阻尼式波动后收敛于均衡价格,且存在最优的从众行为,促使农产品价格以最快的速度恢复至市场均衡;在轻度和中度从众行为区间,伴随农户从众行为程度的提高,市场效率先上升后下降;而在高度从众行为区间,农产品价格发生大幅度、周期性的波动,市场配置资源的功能失效,市场无效率。
The price was the index of resource allocation guided by the market.Farmer's herd behavior would damage the efficiency of information,which resulted in low operation efficiency. An expected average model and fluctuation model of market price of agricultural product price were built to simulate the effect of the farmers' herd behavior on the price fluctuation and the market efficiency using computational experiment economic method.The results showed that the price of agricultural products is slightly cyclical in the range of mild herd behavior;in the range of moderate herd behavior,the price of agricultural products converged to the equilibrium price after a period of damping fluctuation,and there existed the best herd behavior in this interval,which drove the price of agricultural products to recover to the equilibrium price at the fastest speed.On the other hand,the price of agricultural products had a large and irrational fluctuation in the range of severe public behavior,which led to a large and periodic fluctuation in the market price of agricultural products.
The price was the index of resource allocation guided by the market.Farmer's herd behavior would damage the efficiency of information,which resulted in low operation efficiency. An expected average model and fluctuation model of market price of agricultural product price were built to simulate the effect of the farmers' herd behavior on the price fluctuation and the market efficiency using computational experiment economic method.The results showed that the price of agricultural products is slightly cyclical in the range of mild herd behavior;in the range of moderate herd behavior,the price of agricultural products converged to the equilibrium price after a period of damping fluctuation,and there existed the best herd behavior in this interval,which drove the price of agricultural products to recover to the equilibrium price at the fastest speed.On the other hand,the price of agricultural products had a large and irrational fluctuation in the range of severe public behavior,which led to a large and periodic fluctuation in the market price of agricultural products.
引文
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[20]滕玉华,刘长进,陈燕,等.基于结构方程模型的农户清洁能源应用行为决策研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2017,27(9):186-195.
[21]杨玉珍.农户闲置宅基地退出的影响因素及政策衔接———行为经济学视角[J].经济地理,2015(7):140-147.
[22]赵微,周惠,杨钢桥,等.农民参与农地整理项目建后管护的意愿与行为转化研究:以河南邓州的调查为例[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(3):55-62.
[23]余威震,罗小锋,李容容,等.绿色认知视角下农户绿色技术采纳意愿与行为悖离研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(8):1573-1583.
[24]许佳贤,郑逸芳,林沙.农户农业新技术采纳行为的影响机理分析———基于公众情境理论[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018(2):52-58.
[2] Frémondeau D,De Cupere B,Evin A,et al.Diversity in pig husbandry from the Classical-Hellenistic to the Byzantine periods:an integrated dental analysis of DüzenTepe and Sagalassos assemblages(Turkey)[J].Journal of Archaeological Science:Reports,2017,11:38-52.
[3] Azevedo E M,Gottlieb D.Perfect competition in markets with adverse selection[J].Econometrica,2017,85(1):67-105.
[4] East M L,Otto E,Helms J,et al.Does lactation lead to resource allocation trade-offs in the spotted hyaena?[J].Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology,2015,69(5):805-814.
[5]李丰,胡舟.粮食最低收购价政策对农户种植行为的影响分析———以稻谷主生产区为例[J].价格理论与实践,2016(10):94-97.
[6]郭利京,刘俊杰,赵瑾.生猪价格预期对仔猪价格形成的动态影响分析[J].农村经济,2015(3):46-49.
[7]白冬雪,贾永全,王宁,等.黑龙江省中规模生猪生产者盈亏平衡价格分析[J].黑龙江八一农垦大学学报,2017,29(2):129-132.
[8] Wright B.Global biofuels:key to the puzzle of grain market behavior[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2014,28(1):73-98.
[9] Isakson S R. Food and finance:The financial transformation of agro-food supply chains[J].Journal of Peasant Studies,2014,41(5):749-775.
[10]孔祥智.农业供给侧结构性改革的基本内涵与政策建议[J].改革,2016(2):104-115.
[11] Haeger A,Wolf K,Zegers M M,et al.Collective cell migration:guidance principles and hierarchies[J].Trends in Cell Biology,2015,25(9):556-566.
[12] Tait P,Saunders C,Guenther M,et al. Emerging versus developed economy consumer willingness to pay for environmentally sustainable food production:A choice experiment approach comparing Indian,Chinese and United Kingdom lamb consumers[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,124:65-72.
[13]贺超,张璐,李杨,等.林权流转价格形成机制及其影响因素研究———基于辽宁,福建,江西等七省农户调查数据分析[J].价格理论与实践,2017(10):76-79.
[14]张燕媛,展进涛,陈超.专业化,认知度对养殖户农产品价格指数保险需求的影响[J].中国农村经济,2017(2):70-83.
[15]徐珊.关联于资产价格波动的货币政策非对称性检验——基于修正NK-SVAR模型的实证分析[J].长春大学学报,2015(3):7-12.
[16] Franke R,Westerhoff F. Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns:explanation and estimation[J].Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination,2016,11(1):1-34.
[17]张敦力,江新峰.管理者能力与企业投资羊群行为:基于薪酬公平的调节作用[J].会计研究,2015(8):41-48.
[18]刘志迎,彭宝安.奖励型众筹中投资者存在羊群行为吗?———一个实证研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2018,39(6):49-57.
[19]李晓鑫,曹红辉.信息披露,投资经验与羊群行为———基于众筹投资的研究[J].财贸经济,2016,37(10):72-86.
[20]滕玉华,刘长进,陈燕,等.基于结构方程模型的农户清洁能源应用行为决策研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2017,27(9):186-195.
[21]杨玉珍.农户闲置宅基地退出的影响因素及政策衔接———行为经济学视角[J].经济地理,2015(7):140-147.
[22]赵微,周惠,杨钢桥,等.农民参与农地整理项目建后管护的意愿与行为转化研究:以河南邓州的调查为例[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(3):55-62.
[23]余威震,罗小锋,李容容,等.绿色认知视角下农户绿色技术采纳意愿与行为悖离研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(8):1573-1583.
[24]许佳贤,郑逸芳,林沙.农户农业新技术采纳行为的影响机理分析———基于公众情境理论[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018(2):52-58.