长江中游城市群城市生态承载力时空格局及其影响因素
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摘要
长江中游城市群是我国的典型生态敏感区和重点开发区,科学评价其生态承载力具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。从城市生态系统的组成要素、结构特征出发,选择状态空间法从社会经济协调力、资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力3个维度构建了城市生态承载力综合评价指标体系,综合运用空间分析、多元回归、地理加权回归等方法深入分析了2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力时空格局及其影响因素。结果表明:①2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力指数总体呈波动上升的"W"型走势,社会经济协调力维度呈波动下降的趋势,而资源环境支撑力和生态弹性力维度整体呈波动上升的趋势;②从空间格局来看,2006—2015年长江中游城市群城市生态承载力表现出显著的空间关联性与异质性,环洞庭湖地区和环鄱阳湖城市群地区形成两大高值集聚区,而在武汉城市圈和环长株潭城市群核心区域形成两大低值集聚区;③社会发展水平、城镇居民收入水平、人口密度、经济发展效率、资源供给状况和环境污染治理水平等要素对长江中游城市群城市生态承载力空间分异格局的影响较为显著,影响强度具有空间异质性特征。
The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is within a typical ecologically sensitive area as well as a key development area in China. Scientific assessment of its ecological carrying capacity has important scientific value and practical significance. On the basis of both the components and structural characteristics of urban ecosystems, in this study, we used state-space techniques to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urban ecosystem carrying capacity from three dimensions: socio-economic coordination, resource and environmental supply, and ecological elasticity. Spatial analysis, multiple regression, and geographically weighted regression were used to analyze the temporal-spatial patterns and other factors influencing the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in an urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2006 to 2015. The results indicated that:(1) the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area presents a W-shaped fluctuating increasing trend. The dimension of socio-economic coordination follows a fluctuating decreasing tendency, while the dimensions of resource and environment supply and ecological elasticity are increasing with fluctuations.(2) With regard to the perspective of spatial patterns, the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area is characterized by an obvious space correlation and heterogeneity. Two hot spots formed in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration and the area around the Dongting Lake, and two cold zones formed in the core area of the Wuhan urban agglomeration and the urban agglomeration around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.(3) The factors of social development level, income level of urban inhabitants, population density, economic development efficiency, resource supply level, and environmental pollution control level exert significant effects on the spatial differentiation pattern of the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the intensity shows a spatial heterogeneity characteristic.
The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is within a typical ecologically sensitive area as well as a key development area in China. Scientific assessment of its ecological carrying capacity has important scientific value and practical significance. On the basis of both the components and structural characteristics of urban ecosystems, in this study, we used state-space techniques to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urban ecosystem carrying capacity from three dimensions: socio-economic coordination, resource and environmental supply, and ecological elasticity. Spatial analysis, multiple regression, and geographically weighted regression were used to analyze the temporal-spatial patterns and other factors influencing the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in an urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2006 to 2015. The results indicated that:(1) the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area presents a W-shaped fluctuating increasing trend. The dimension of socio-economic coordination follows a fluctuating decreasing tendency, while the dimensions of resource and environment supply and ecological elasticity are increasing with fluctuations.(2) With regard to the perspective of spatial patterns, the urban ecosystem carrying capacity of study area is characterized by an obvious space correlation and heterogeneity. Two hot spots formed in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration and the area around the Dongting Lake, and two cold zones formed in the core area of the Wuhan urban agglomeration and the urban agglomeration around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.(3) The factors of social development level, income level of urban inhabitants, population density, economic development efficiency, resource supply level, and environmental pollution control level exert significant effects on the spatial differentiation pattern of the urban ecosystem carrying capacity in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the intensity shows a spatial heterogeneity characteristic.
引文
[1] 周侃,樊杰.中国欠发达地区资源环境承载力特征与影响因素——以宁夏西海固地区和云南怒江州为例.地理研究,2015,34(1):39-52.
[2] 熊建新,彭保发,陈端吕,王亚力,张猛.洞庭湖区生态承载力时空演化特征.地理研究,2013,32(11):2031-2040.
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[4] Rudolph A,Figge L.Determinants of ecological footprints:What is the role of globalization?Ecological Indicators,2017,81:348-361.
[5] 张引,杨庆媛,闵婕.重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析.地理学报,2016,71(5):817-828.
[6] 李小云,杨宇,刘毅.中国人地关系演进及其资源环境基础研究进展.地理学报,2016,71(12):2067-2088.
[7] O′Neill D W,Tyedmers P H,Beazley K F.Human appropriation of net primary production(HANPP) in Nova Scotia,Canada.Regional Environmental Chang,2007,7(1):1-14.
[8] Sjafrie N D M,Adrianto L,Damar A,Boer M.Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in seagrass ecosystem:an example from the east coast of Bintan Regency,Kepulauan Riau Province,Indonesia.Environment,Development and Sustainability,2018,20(2):865-881.
[9] 王恒博,姚顺波,郭亚军,赵敏娟.基于生态足迹-服务价值法的生态承载力时空演化.长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(10):2316-2327.
[10] 杨璐迪,曾晨,焦利民,刘钰.基于生态足迹的武汉城市圈生态承载力评价和生态补偿研究.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(9):1332-1341.
[11] Jiao W J,Min Q W,Cheng S K,Zhang D,Sun Y H.The emergy-based ecological footprint (EEF) of traditional agricultural areas in China:A case study of Congjiang County,Guizhou Province.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2011,2(1):56-65.
[12] 熊建新,陈端吕,谢雪梅.基于状态空间法的洞庭湖区生态承载力综合评价研究.经济地理,2012,32(11):138-142.
[13] 纪学朋,白永平,杜海波,王军邦,周亮.甘肃省生态承载力空间定量评价及耦合协调性.生态学报,2017,37(17):5861-5870.
[14] Lein J K.Mapping environmental carrying capacity using an artificial neural network:A first experiment.Land Degradation&Development,2010,6(1):17-28.
[15] He R W,Liu S Q,Liu Y W.Application of SD model in analyzing the cultivated land carrying capacity:A case study in Bijie Prefecture,Guizhou Province,China.Procedia Environmental Sciences,2011,10:1985-1991.
[16] Mondino E B,Fabrizio E,Chiabrando R.A GIS tool for the land carrying capacity of large solar plants.Energy Procedia,2014,48:1576-1585.
[17] Ge L Q,Li S M,Xie G D,Cheng Y P,Ni Z S.The population carrying capacity of waters ecosystem in China.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2016,7(1):21-27.
[18] 金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,张萌,张红玉.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价——以唐山市为例.生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[19] 王维,张涛,王晓伟,文春生.长江经济带城市生态承载力时空格局研究.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(12):1963-1971.
[20] 荣月静,郭新亚,杜世勋,李霞,宁婷,张梦莹.基于生态系统服务功能及生态敏感性与PSR模型的生态承载力空间分析.水土保持研究,2019,26(1):323-329.
[21] 王雅敬,谢炳庚,李晓青,赵卫权,王金艳,罗海波.喀斯特地区耕地生态承载力供需平衡.生态学报,2017,37(21):7030-7038.
[22] 潘洪义,朱晚秋,崔绿叶,冯茂秋,朱芳.成都市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力空间分布差异.生态学报,2017,37(19):6335-6345.
[23] 殷培杰,杜世勇,白志鹏.2008年山东省17城市生态承载力分析.环境科学学报,2011,31(9):2048-2057.
[24] 杨屹,胡蝶.生态脆弱区榆林三维生态足迹动态变化及其驱动因素.自然资源学报,2018,33(7):1204-1217.
[25] Yue D X,Ma J H,Guo J J,Zhang J J,Du J,Song Y J,Hui C.RS&GIS-based spatialtemporal analysis of ecological footprint and biocapacity pattern of Jinghe River watershed in China:does supply meet demand?Advanced Materials Research,2012,356-360:2820-2832.
[26] McBain B,Lenzen M,Wackernagel M,Albrecht G.How long can global ecological overshoot last?Global and Planetary Change,2017,155:13-19.
[27] 向秀容,潘韬,吴绍洪,刘卫东,马丽,王晓峰,尹云鹤,李静.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测.地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[28] 李焕,黄贤金,金雨泽,张鑫.长江经济带水资源人口承载力研究.经济地理,2017,37(1):181-186.
[29] 熊建新,陈端吕,彭保发,游雪姣.洞庭湖区生态承载力时空动态模拟.经济地理,2016,36(4):164-172.
[30] 胡秉民,王兆骞,吴建军,李伟光.农业生态系统结构指标体系及其量化方法研究.应用生态学报,1992,3(2):144-148.
[31] 沈威,杜巧艳,李永贺,赵威,鲁丰先,周雨石,申智锋.长江经济带新型城镇化时空格局演变及影响因素研究.华中师范大学学报:自然科学版,2017,51(4):534-541.
[32] 毛汉英,余丹林.环渤海地区区域承载力研究.地理学报,2001,56(3):363-371.
[33] 王承云,孙飞翔.长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应.地理研究,2017,36(6):1042-1052.
[34] 胡廷兰,何孟常,杨志峰.城市生态支持系统瓶颈分析方法及应用研究.生态学报,2004,24(7):1493-1499.
[35] Yang Z F,Su M R,Zhang B,Zhang Y,Hu T L.Limiting factor analysis and regulation for urban ecosystems—A case study of Ningbo,China.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(9):2701-2709.
[36] 杨宇,刘毅,金凤君,董雯,李莉.塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析.地理学报,2012,67(2):157-168.
[37] Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M.Some notes on parametric significance tests for geographically weighted regression.Journal of Regional Science,1999,39(3):497-524.
[2] 熊建新,彭保发,陈端吕,王亚力,张猛.洞庭湖区生态承载力时空演化特征.地理研究,2013,32(11):2031-2040.
[3] Wackernagel M,Galli A.An overview on ecological footprint and sustainable development:A chat with Mathis Wackernage.International Journal of Ecodynamics,2007,2(1):1-9.
[4] Rudolph A,Figge L.Determinants of ecological footprints:What is the role of globalization?Ecological Indicators,2017,81:348-361.
[5] 张引,杨庆媛,闵婕.重庆市新型城镇化质量与生态环境承载力耦合分析.地理学报,2016,71(5):817-828.
[6] 李小云,杨宇,刘毅.中国人地关系演进及其资源环境基础研究进展.地理学报,2016,71(12):2067-2088.
[7] O′Neill D W,Tyedmers P H,Beazley K F.Human appropriation of net primary production(HANPP) in Nova Scotia,Canada.Regional Environmental Chang,2007,7(1):1-14.
[8] Sjafrie N D M,Adrianto L,Damar A,Boer M.Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in seagrass ecosystem:an example from the east coast of Bintan Regency,Kepulauan Riau Province,Indonesia.Environment,Development and Sustainability,2018,20(2):865-881.
[9] 王恒博,姚顺波,郭亚军,赵敏娟.基于生态足迹-服务价值法的生态承载力时空演化.长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(10):2316-2327.
[10] 杨璐迪,曾晨,焦利民,刘钰.基于生态足迹的武汉城市圈生态承载力评价和生态补偿研究.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(9):1332-1341.
[11] Jiao W J,Min Q W,Cheng S K,Zhang D,Sun Y H.The emergy-based ecological footprint (EEF) of traditional agricultural areas in China:A case study of Congjiang County,Guizhou Province.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2011,2(1):56-65.
[12] 熊建新,陈端吕,谢雪梅.基于状态空间法的洞庭湖区生态承载力综合评价研究.经济地理,2012,32(11):138-142.
[13] 纪学朋,白永平,杜海波,王军邦,周亮.甘肃省生态承载力空间定量评价及耦合协调性.生态学报,2017,37(17):5861-5870.
[14] Lein J K.Mapping environmental carrying capacity using an artificial neural network:A first experiment.Land Degradation&Development,2010,6(1):17-28.
[15] He R W,Liu S Q,Liu Y W.Application of SD model in analyzing the cultivated land carrying capacity:A case study in Bijie Prefecture,Guizhou Province,China.Procedia Environmental Sciences,2011,10:1985-1991.
[16] Mondino E B,Fabrizio E,Chiabrando R.A GIS tool for the land carrying capacity of large solar plants.Energy Procedia,2014,48:1576-1585.
[17] Ge L Q,Li S M,Xie G D,Cheng Y P,Ni Z S.The population carrying capacity of waters ecosystem in China.Journal of Resources and Ecology,2016,7(1):21-27.
[18] 金悦,陆兆华,檀菲菲,张萌,张红玉.典型资源型城市生态承载力评价——以唐山市为例.生态学报,2015,35(14):4852-4859.
[19] 王维,张涛,王晓伟,文春生.长江经济带城市生态承载力时空格局研究.长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(12):1963-1971.
[20] 荣月静,郭新亚,杜世勋,李霞,宁婷,张梦莹.基于生态系统服务功能及生态敏感性与PSR模型的生态承载力空间分析.水土保持研究,2019,26(1):323-329.
[21] 王雅敬,谢炳庚,李晓青,赵卫权,王金艳,罗海波.喀斯特地区耕地生态承载力供需平衡.生态学报,2017,37(21):7030-7038.
[22] 潘洪义,朱晚秋,崔绿叶,冯茂秋,朱芳.成都市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力空间分布差异.生态学报,2017,37(19):6335-6345.
[23] 殷培杰,杜世勇,白志鹏.2008年山东省17城市生态承载力分析.环境科学学报,2011,31(9):2048-2057.
[24] 杨屹,胡蝶.生态脆弱区榆林三维生态足迹动态变化及其驱动因素.自然资源学报,2018,33(7):1204-1217.
[25] Yue D X,Ma J H,Guo J J,Zhang J J,Du J,Song Y J,Hui C.RS&GIS-based spatialtemporal analysis of ecological footprint and biocapacity pattern of Jinghe River watershed in China:does supply meet demand?Advanced Materials Research,2012,356-360:2820-2832.
[26] McBain B,Lenzen M,Wackernagel M,Albrecht G.How long can global ecological overshoot last?Global and Planetary Change,2017,155:13-19.
[27] 向秀容,潘韬,吴绍洪,刘卫东,马丽,王晓峰,尹云鹤,李静.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测.地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[28] 李焕,黄贤金,金雨泽,张鑫.长江经济带水资源人口承载力研究.经济地理,2017,37(1):181-186.
[29] 熊建新,陈端吕,彭保发,游雪姣.洞庭湖区生态承载力时空动态模拟.经济地理,2016,36(4):164-172.
[30] 胡秉民,王兆骞,吴建军,李伟光.农业生态系统结构指标体系及其量化方法研究.应用生态学报,1992,3(2):144-148.
[31] 沈威,杜巧艳,李永贺,赵威,鲁丰先,周雨石,申智锋.长江经济带新型城镇化时空格局演变及影响因素研究.华中师范大学学报:自然科学版,2017,51(4):534-541.
[32] 毛汉英,余丹林.环渤海地区区域承载力研究.地理学报,2001,56(3):363-371.
[33] 王承云,孙飞翔.长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应.地理研究,2017,36(6):1042-1052.
[34] 胡廷兰,何孟常,杨志峰.城市生态支持系统瓶颈分析方法及应用研究.生态学报,2004,24(7):1493-1499.
[35] Yang Z F,Su M R,Zhang B,Zhang Y,Hu T L.Limiting factor analysis and regulation for urban ecosystems—A case study of Ningbo,China.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(9):2701-2709.
[36] 杨宇,刘毅,金凤君,董雯,李莉.塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析.地理学报,2012,67(2):157-168.
[37] Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M.Some notes on parametric significance tests for geographically weighted regression.Journal of Regional Science,1999,39(3):497-524.