双季稻主要气象灾害研究进展
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摘要
热害、洪涝、干旱和冷害是影响我国双季稻安全生产的主要气象灾害。气候变化背景下,双季稻遭受的极端气候事件增加,应对气象灾害的任务更加紧迫。我国双季稻主要气象灾害的时空分布特征不同:热害、洪涝和干旱发生频率整体呈增加趋势,西部南部较高;冷害弱减轻,北高南低,不同生育期存在差异。文中对双季稻生产的影响、监测预警技术(站点监测、遥感监测、指标预警、数理统计和动态机理模型)以及防御气象灾害的减灾保产技术进行了阐述。针对当前气候资源的时空分布特点以及关于双季稻气象灾害研究存在的不足,提出了双季稻气象灾害在未来研究中需要重点关注的科学问题,即双季稻气象灾变过程及其动态监测指标体系、气候变暖背景下双季稻气象灾害遥感监测技术及其气象灾损动态评估技术、星-地耦合的双季稻气象灾变过程数值模式研发、双季稻种植制度对气候变化的适应性及其抗灾减灾新技术与示范研究,为双季稻有效防御气象灾害和稳产高产提供依据和技术支撑。
With the background of climate warming, the occurrence frequency and intensity of agricultural meteorological disasters in China increase significantly, and challenges of responding to agrometeorological disasters become more severe. The key to solving the national major needs lies in clarifying processes of agricultural meteorological disasters and their techniques for disaster reduction and production protection. China is the largest rice producer of the world and its rice production ranks first in domestic growing grain. Among them, the double-cropping rice has a wide range of cultivation, accounting for about 70% of total rice production in China, and is mainly distributed in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and South China.Heat damage, flood, drought and cold injury are major meteorological disasters seriously affecting the growth and development of double-cropping rice in China. On the basis of researches at home and abroad,the recent progresses on major meteorological disasters(cold damage, high temperature disaster,flood,and drought) in double-cropping rice are reviewed. Occurrence characteristics, temporal and spatial distribution patterns of major meteorological disasters(cold damage, high temperature disaster, flood, and drought) and their impacts on production are revealed. Influencing mechanisms of major meteorological disasters on double-cropping rice growth and yield are analyzed. Advantages and disadvantages of longterm, medium and short-term monitoring and early warning methods(site monitoring, remote sensing monitoring, indicator warning, mathematical statistical analysis and dynamic mechanism model) against major meteorological disasters of double-cropping rice are checked, and techniques of reducing meteorological disasters are summarized. In view of the current spatial and temporal distribution of climatic resources and deficiencies of the research on meteorological disasters of double-cropping rice, scientific issues calling for more attention in the future research are proposed, namely, meteorological disaster process and its dynamic monitoring index system, the occurrence pattern of meteorological disasters and remote sensing monitoring technology under climate warming, the response of meteorological disasters to climate change and dynamic assessment technology of meteorological disaster damage, satellite-ground coupled numerical model development for meteorological disaster processes of double-cropping rice, adaptability of double-cropping rice planting systems to climate change, as well as new techniques and demonstrations for meteorological disaster reduction. These researches would provide further basis and technical support for the effective mitigation of meteorological disasters, and ensure stable production and guarantee high yields of doublecropping rice.
With the background of climate warming, the occurrence frequency and intensity of agricultural meteorological disasters in China increase significantly, and challenges of responding to agrometeorological disasters become more severe. The key to solving the national major needs lies in clarifying processes of agricultural meteorological disasters and their techniques for disaster reduction and production protection. China is the largest rice producer of the world and its rice production ranks first in domestic growing grain. Among them, the double-cropping rice has a wide range of cultivation, accounting for about 70% of total rice production in China, and is mainly distributed in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and South China.Heat damage, flood, drought and cold injury are major meteorological disasters seriously affecting the growth and development of double-cropping rice in China. On the basis of researches at home and abroad,the recent progresses on major meteorological disasters(cold damage, high temperature disaster,flood,and drought) in double-cropping rice are reviewed. Occurrence characteristics, temporal and spatial distribution patterns of major meteorological disasters(cold damage, high temperature disaster, flood, and drought) and their impacts on production are revealed. Influencing mechanisms of major meteorological disasters on double-cropping rice growth and yield are analyzed. Advantages and disadvantages of longterm, medium and short-term monitoring and early warning methods(site monitoring, remote sensing monitoring, indicator warning, mathematical statistical analysis and dynamic mechanism model) against major meteorological disasters of double-cropping rice are checked, and techniques of reducing meteorological disasters are summarized. In view of the current spatial and temporal distribution of climatic resources and deficiencies of the research on meteorological disasters of double-cropping rice, scientific issues calling for more attention in the future research are proposed, namely, meteorological disaster process and its dynamic monitoring index system, the occurrence pattern of meteorological disasters and remote sensing monitoring technology under climate warming, the response of meteorological disasters to climate change and dynamic assessment technology of meteorological disaster damage, satellite-ground coupled numerical model development for meteorological disaster processes of double-cropping rice, adaptability of double-cropping rice planting systems to climate change, as well as new techniques and demonstrations for meteorological disaster reduction. These researches would provide further basis and technical support for the effective mitigation of meteorological disasters, and ensure stable production and guarantee high yields of doublecropping rice.
引文
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