基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建
|
摘要
[目的]定量重建青藏高原全新世以来的百年分辨率的降水序列,为青藏高原环境演变及其预测未来的气候情景提供基础数据资料。[方法]利用青藏高原若尔盖盆地和塔若错湖芯高分辨率孢粉数据,采用加权平均偏最小二乘回归(WAPLS)和现代类比法(MAT)重建了全新世以来青藏高原东、西部的降水变化。[结果](1)高原降水变化明显分为3个阶段,早全新世(10.5～8.9kaBP)降水呈波动较大,平均降水量略高于现代;中全新世(8.9～3.2kaBP)是旺盛的湿润期,东西部地区达到极值时间分别是6.7和7.4kaBP,降水分别高出现代42.4和200mm。晚全新世(3.2kaBP以来)期间东部降水持续下降,较前期下降约70mm,而西部地区降水有所增加,约与现代相当;(2)降水百年尺度变化:高原降水较少发生时间较为一致,在1.8,3.4,6.2和9.5kaBP前后。[结论]全新世早中期高原降水量整体高于现代,全新世晚期东、西部降水量均有下降趋势,在1.2kaBP左右西部降水出现回升。重建序列与其他高低分辨率环境记录有很好的可比性,说明重建序列有很好的代表性和一定的准确性。
[Objective]Quantitative reconstruction of the 100-year resolution precipitation sequence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since Holocene provides basic data for the environmental evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its prediction of future climate scenarios.[Methods]Using the high-resolution spore-pollen data from the Ruergai Basin and Tarongcuo Lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,we reconstructed precipitation changes in the eastern and western plateau since the Holocene by weighted average partial least squares regression(WAPLS)and modern analogue(MAT).[Results](1) The precipitation variation on the plateau was obviously divided into three stages.The precipitation in the early Holocene(10.5～8.9kaBP)tended to fluctuate,and the average precipitation was slightly higher than that of the modern.The middle Holocene(8.9～3.2kaBP)was a period of abundant precipitation and the extreme time in the eastern and western regions reached 6.7kaBP and 7.4kaBP,respectively,and the precipitation was higher than the modern 42.4mm and 200 mm respectively.In the later Holocene(after 3.2kaBP),the precipitation in the east continuedto decrease,which was about 70 mm lower than the previous period,while the precipitation in the west increased,similar to the modern level;(2) Precipitation extreme events:the extreme drought events on the plateau were relatively consistent and occurred around 1.8,3.4,6.2and 9.5kaBP.[Conclusion]In the early and middle Holocene,the precipitation was generally higher than that in the modern times.At the end of the Holocene,the precipitation in the east and west had a downward trend,and the precipitation in the west increased around 1.2kaBP.Reconstruction sequences are comparable to the other records with a high or low resolution,which means reconstruction sequences are representative and relatively accurate.
[Objective]Quantitative reconstruction of the 100-year resolution precipitation sequence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since Holocene provides basic data for the environmental evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its prediction of future climate scenarios.[Methods]Using the high-resolution spore-pollen data from the Ruergai Basin and Tarongcuo Lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,we reconstructed precipitation changes in the eastern and western plateau since the Holocene by weighted average partial least squares regression(WAPLS)and modern analogue(MAT).[Results](1) The precipitation variation on the plateau was obviously divided into three stages.The precipitation in the early Holocene(10.5～8.9kaBP)tended to fluctuate,and the average precipitation was slightly higher than that of the modern.The middle Holocene(8.9～3.2kaBP)was a period of abundant precipitation and the extreme time in the eastern and western regions reached 6.7kaBP and 7.4kaBP,respectively,and the precipitation was higher than the modern 42.4mm and 200 mm respectively.In the later Holocene(after 3.2kaBP),the precipitation in the east continuedto decrease,which was about 70 mm lower than the previous period,while the precipitation in the west increased,similar to the modern level;(2) Precipitation extreme events:the extreme drought events on the plateau were relatively consistent and occurred around 1.8,3.4,6.2and 9.5kaBP.[Conclusion]In the early and middle Holocene,the precipitation was generally higher than that in the modern times.At the end of the Holocene,the precipitation in the east and west had a downward trend,and the precipitation in the west increased around 1.2kaBP.Reconstruction sequences are comparable to the other records with a high or low resolution,which means reconstruction sequences are representative and relatively accurate.
引文
[1]Wu Guoxiong,Liu Yimin,He Bian,et al.Review of the impact of the Tibetan Plateau sensible heat driven air-pump on the Asian summer monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,42(3):488-504.
[2] Yao Tandong,Masson-Delmotte V,Gao Jing,et al.A review of climatic controls onδ18 O in precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau:Observations and simulations[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2013,51(13):525-548.
[3]郑卓,黄康有,魏金辉,等.中国及其邻区现代孢粉数据:空间分布特征和定量古环境重建中的应用[J].第四纪研究,2013,33(6):1037-1053.
[4]郑卓,黄康有,许清海,等.中国表土花粉与建群植物地理分布的气候指示性对比[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2008,38(9):701-714.
[5] Xu Qinghai,Li Yuecong,Bunting M J,et al.The effects of training set selection on the relationship between pollen assemblages and climate parameters:Implications for reconstructing past climate[J].Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol,2010,289(1):123-133.
[6] Lu Houyuan,Wu Naiqin,Liu Kam-biu et al.Modern pollen distributions in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the development of transfer functions for reconstructing Holocene environmental changes[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(12):947-966.
[7] Zheng Zhuo,Wei Jinhui,Huang Kangyou,et al.East Asian pollen database:Modern pollen distribution and its quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate[J].Biogeogr,2014,41(14):1819-1832.
[8] Ulrike H,Pavel T,Bernd W,et al.Holocene vegetation and climate of the Alashan Plateau,NW China,reconstructed from pollen data[J].Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol,2004,2(11):1-17.
[9]王芳芳,侯光良,侯小青,等.青藏高原表土孢粉定量重建的气候参数探讨[J].地球学报,2017,38(4):529-536.
[10] Xu Qinghai,Xiao Jule,Li Yuecong,et al.Pollenbased quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area,Inner Mongolia,China[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(5):2856-2868.
[11] Birks B,John H.Strengths and weaknesses of quantitative climate reconstructions based on Late-Quaternary biological proxies[J].Quaternary International,2010,3(7):68-110.
[12]Xu Qinghai,Zhang Shengrui,Marie-jose Gaillard.Studies of modern pollen assemblages for pollen dispersaldeposition-preservation process understanding and for pollen-based reconstructions of past vegetation,climate,and human impact:A review based on case studies in China[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2016,149(13):151-166.
[13]An Zhisheng.Interplay between the westerlies and Asian monsoon recorded in Lake Qinghai sediments since 32ka[J].Science,2012,2(13):619-623.
[14] Joosten H,Haberl A,Schumann M.Degradation and restoration of peatlands on the Tibetan Plateau[J].PeatInt,2008,1(17):31-35.
[15] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Zhao Wenwei.Holocene vegetation and climate histories in the eastern Tibetan Plateau:Controls by in solation-driven temperature or monsoon-derived precipitation changes?[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(6):1173-118.
[16]侯学煜.中国植被图集(1∶100万)[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[17]王苏民,窦鸿身.中国湖泊志[M].北京:科学出版社,1998.
[18]马庆峰,朱立平,吕新苗,等.花粉揭示的青藏高原西南部塔若错全新世以来植被与气候变化[J].科学通报,2014,59(26):2630-2631.
[19]魏海成,马海州,郑卓,等.青藏高原东北部表土花粉组合与植被和气候的关系[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2010.16(3):237-246.
[20]鲁春霞,王菱,谢高地,等.青藏高原降水的梯度效应及其空间分布模拟[J].山地学报,2007,25(6):655-663.
[21]侯光良,鄂崇毅,肖景义.青藏高原全新世降水序列的集成重建[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1121-1122.
[22]孙晓红,赵艳,李泉.青藏高原东部若尔盖盆地全新世全新世泥炭地发育和植被变化[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2017.40(9):1101-1102.
[23] Cajo J F,Braak T,Steve J.Weighted averaging partial least squares regression(WA-PLS):An improved method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages[J].Hydrobiologia,1993,269(270):485-502.
[24] Birks.Quantitative palaeo environmental reconstructions in Statistical Modeling of Quaternary Science Data,Technical Guide 5[J].Quaternary Research Association,Cambridge,1995,12(4):161-254.
[25] Steve J.C2Version 1.5:Software for Ecological and Palaeoecological Data Analysis and Visualization[M].Newcastle,England:Newcastle Univ.,2007.
[26]许清海,李曼玥,张生瑞,等.中国第四纪花粉现代过程进展与问题[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2015,45(9):1661-1682.
[27]黄康有,魏金辉,陈碧珊,等.最佳类比法的孢粉—古气候定量重建研究进展[J].第四纪研究,2013,33(6):1069-1079.
[28]袁玉江,叶玮.天山西部伊犁地区314a降水的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2000,22(6):121-126.
[29]何红艳,郭志华,肖文发,等.利用GIS和多变量分析估算青藏高原月降水[J].生态学报.2005,25(11):2934-2937.
[30] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Tang Yu et al.Peatland initiation and carbon accumulation in China over the last50,000years[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2014,128(21):139-146.
[31] Xu H,Yeager K M,Lan J,et al.A brupt Holocene Indian summer monsoon failures:A primary response to solar activity?[J].Holocene,2015,25(14):677-685.
[32]刘冰,靳鹤龄,孙忠,等.青藏高原东北部泥炭沉积粒度与元素记录的全新世千年尺度的气候变化[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):614-616.
[33] Shen Ji,Liu Xingqi,Wang Sumin,et al.Palaeo climatic changes in the Qinghai Lake area during the last18000years[J].Quaternary International,2004,136(1):131-140.
[34]贺跃,鲍征宇,侯居峙,等.令戈错湖芯重建过去17ka青藏高原大气环流变化[J].科学通报,2016,61(33):3589-3591.
[35] Steffen M,Zhang Chengjun.Holocene cold events on the Tibetan Plateau[J].Glob Planet Change,2010,72(13):155-163.
[36] Zhao Cheng,Liu Zhonghui,Rohling Eelco J,et al.Holocene temperature fluctuations in the Northern Tibetan Plateau[J].Quaternary Research,2013,80(12):55-65.
[37] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Zhao Wenwei.Holocene vegetation and climate histories in the eastern Tibetan Plateau:Controls by in solation-driven temperature or monsoon-derived precipitation changes?[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(11):1173-1184.
[38] Xu Hai,Liu Bin,Lan Jianghu,et al.Holocene peatland development along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Quat.Res.,2013,80(12):47-54.
[39] Haberle Simon G,Maslin Mark A.Late Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the Amazon Basin Based on a 50,000year pollen record from the Amazon Fan,ODP Site 932.China[J].Quaternary Research,2017,51(1):27-38.
[40] Cai Yanjun,Zhang Haiwei,Cheng Hai,et al.The Holocene Indian monsoon variability over the southern Tibetan Plateau and its teleconnections[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2012,34(15):135-144.
[41]李世杰,Bernd Wǜnnemann,夏威岚,等.青藏高原兹格塘错沉积记录的全新世水位变化事件及其原因初步研究[J].地学前缘,2009,16(6):164-165.
[42]刘冰,靳鹤龄,孙忠,等.全新世共和盆地沙地时空演化及其驱动机制[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(4):982-991.
[43]程波,陈发虎,张家武.共和盆地末次冰消期以来的植被和环境演变[J].地理学报,2010,65(11):1336-1344.
[44]彭萍,朱立平,鞠建廷,等.西藏普莫雍错介形类反映的中晚全新世以来湖面波动与环境变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(5):335-339.
[45] Wu Yanhong,Andreas Lücke,Jin Zhangdong,et al.Holocene climate development on the central Tibetan Plateau:A sedimentary record from Cuoe Lake[J].Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecol,2006,234(4):328-340.
[46] Liu Xingqi,Dong Hailiang,Jason A.Rech,et al.Evolution of Chaka Salt Lake in NW China in response to climatic changed during the latest Pleistocene-Holocene[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2008,27(7):867-879.
[47]朱立平,王君波,林晓,等.西藏纳木错深水湖芯反映的8.4ka以来气候环境变化[J].第四纪研究.2007,27(4):589-595.
[48]类延斌,张虎才,尚华明,等.青藏高原年保玉则山末次冰期中期以来的湖泊演化与古冰川发育[J].第四纪研究,2008,28(1):133-136.
[49]李拓宇,伍永秋,杜世松,等.青藏高原西南部仲巴地区细石器人类活动的时代探讨[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(1):91-94.
[2] Yao Tandong,Masson-Delmotte V,Gao Jing,et al.A review of climatic controls onδ18 O in precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau:Observations and simulations[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2013,51(13):525-548.
[3]郑卓,黄康有,魏金辉,等.中国及其邻区现代孢粉数据:空间分布特征和定量古环境重建中的应用[J].第四纪研究,2013,33(6):1037-1053.
[4]郑卓,黄康有,许清海,等.中国表土花粉与建群植物地理分布的气候指示性对比[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2008,38(9):701-714.
[5] Xu Qinghai,Li Yuecong,Bunting M J,et al.The effects of training set selection on the relationship between pollen assemblages and climate parameters:Implications for reconstructing past climate[J].Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol,2010,289(1):123-133.
[6] Lu Houyuan,Wu Naiqin,Liu Kam-biu et al.Modern pollen distributions in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the development of transfer functions for reconstructing Holocene environmental changes[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(12):947-966.
[7] Zheng Zhuo,Wei Jinhui,Huang Kangyou,et al.East Asian pollen database:Modern pollen distribution and its quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate[J].Biogeogr,2014,41(14):1819-1832.
[8] Ulrike H,Pavel T,Bernd W,et al.Holocene vegetation and climate of the Alashan Plateau,NW China,reconstructed from pollen data[J].Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol,2004,2(11):1-17.
[9]王芳芳,侯光良,侯小青,等.青藏高原表土孢粉定量重建的气候参数探讨[J].地球学报,2017,38(4):529-536.
[10] Xu Qinghai,Xiao Jule,Li Yuecong,et al.Pollenbased quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area,Inner Mongolia,China[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(5):2856-2868.
[11] Birks B,John H.Strengths and weaknesses of quantitative climate reconstructions based on Late-Quaternary biological proxies[J].Quaternary International,2010,3(7):68-110.
[12]Xu Qinghai,Zhang Shengrui,Marie-jose Gaillard.Studies of modern pollen assemblages for pollen dispersaldeposition-preservation process understanding and for pollen-based reconstructions of past vegetation,climate,and human impact:A review based on case studies in China[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2016,149(13):151-166.
[13]An Zhisheng.Interplay between the westerlies and Asian monsoon recorded in Lake Qinghai sediments since 32ka[J].Science,2012,2(13):619-623.
[14] Joosten H,Haberl A,Schumann M.Degradation and restoration of peatlands on the Tibetan Plateau[J].PeatInt,2008,1(17):31-35.
[15] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Zhao Wenwei.Holocene vegetation and climate histories in the eastern Tibetan Plateau:Controls by in solation-driven temperature or monsoon-derived precipitation changes?[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(6):1173-118.
[16]侯学煜.中国植被图集(1∶100万)[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[17]王苏民,窦鸿身.中国湖泊志[M].北京:科学出版社,1998.
[18]马庆峰,朱立平,吕新苗,等.花粉揭示的青藏高原西南部塔若错全新世以来植被与气候变化[J].科学通报,2014,59(26):2630-2631.
[19]魏海成,马海州,郑卓,等.青藏高原东北部表土花粉组合与植被和气候的关系[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2010.16(3):237-246.
[20]鲁春霞,王菱,谢高地,等.青藏高原降水的梯度效应及其空间分布模拟[J].山地学报,2007,25(6):655-663.
[21]侯光良,鄂崇毅,肖景义.青藏高原全新世降水序列的集成重建[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1121-1122.
[22]孙晓红,赵艳,李泉.青藏高原东部若尔盖盆地全新世全新世泥炭地发育和植被变化[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2017.40(9):1101-1102.
[23] Cajo J F,Braak T,Steve J.Weighted averaging partial least squares regression(WA-PLS):An improved method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages[J].Hydrobiologia,1993,269(270):485-502.
[24] Birks.Quantitative palaeo environmental reconstructions in Statistical Modeling of Quaternary Science Data,Technical Guide 5[J].Quaternary Research Association,Cambridge,1995,12(4):161-254.
[25] Steve J.C2Version 1.5:Software for Ecological and Palaeoecological Data Analysis and Visualization[M].Newcastle,England:Newcastle Univ.,2007.
[26]许清海,李曼玥,张生瑞,等.中国第四纪花粉现代过程进展与问题[J].中国科学(D辑):地球科学,2015,45(9):1661-1682.
[27]黄康有,魏金辉,陈碧珊,等.最佳类比法的孢粉—古气候定量重建研究进展[J].第四纪研究,2013,33(6):1069-1079.
[28]袁玉江,叶玮.天山西部伊犁地区314a降水的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2000,22(6):121-126.
[29]何红艳,郭志华,肖文发,等.利用GIS和多变量分析估算青藏高原月降水[J].生态学报.2005,25(11):2934-2937.
[30] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Tang Yu et al.Peatland initiation and carbon accumulation in China over the last50,000years[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2014,128(21):139-146.
[31] Xu H,Yeager K M,Lan J,et al.A brupt Holocene Indian summer monsoon failures:A primary response to solar activity?[J].Holocene,2015,25(14):677-685.
[32]刘冰,靳鹤龄,孙忠,等.青藏高原东北部泥炭沉积粒度与元素记录的全新世千年尺度的气候变化[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):614-616.
[33] Shen Ji,Liu Xingqi,Wang Sumin,et al.Palaeo climatic changes in the Qinghai Lake area during the last18000years[J].Quaternary International,2004,136(1):131-140.
[34]贺跃,鲍征宇,侯居峙,等.令戈错湖芯重建过去17ka青藏高原大气环流变化[J].科学通报,2016,61(33):3589-3591.
[35] Steffen M,Zhang Chengjun.Holocene cold events on the Tibetan Plateau[J].Glob Planet Change,2010,72(13):155-163.
[36] Zhao Cheng,Liu Zhonghui,Rohling Eelco J,et al.Holocene temperature fluctuations in the Northern Tibetan Plateau[J].Quaternary Research,2013,80(12):55-65.
[37] Zhao Yan,Yu Zicheng,Zhao Wenwei.Holocene vegetation and climate histories in the eastern Tibetan Plateau:Controls by in solation-driven temperature or monsoon-derived precipitation changes?[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2011,30(11):1173-1184.
[38] Xu Hai,Liu Bin,Lan Jianghu,et al.Holocene peatland development along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Quat.Res.,2013,80(12):47-54.
[39] Haberle Simon G,Maslin Mark A.Late Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the Amazon Basin Based on a 50,000year pollen record from the Amazon Fan,ODP Site 932.China[J].Quaternary Research,2017,51(1):27-38.
[40] Cai Yanjun,Zhang Haiwei,Cheng Hai,et al.The Holocene Indian monsoon variability over the southern Tibetan Plateau and its teleconnections[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2012,34(15):135-144.
[41]李世杰,Bernd Wǜnnemann,夏威岚,等.青藏高原兹格塘错沉积记录的全新世水位变化事件及其原因初步研究[J].地学前缘,2009,16(6):164-165.
[42]刘冰,靳鹤龄,孙忠,等.全新世共和盆地沙地时空演化及其驱动机制[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(4):982-991.
[43]程波,陈发虎,张家武.共和盆地末次冰消期以来的植被和环境演变[J].地理学报,2010,65(11):1336-1344.
[44]彭萍,朱立平,鞠建廷,等.西藏普莫雍错介形类反映的中晚全新世以来湖面波动与环境变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(5):335-339.
[45] Wu Yanhong,Andreas Lücke,Jin Zhangdong,et al.Holocene climate development on the central Tibetan Plateau:A sedimentary record from Cuoe Lake[J].Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecol,2006,234(4):328-340.
[46] Liu Xingqi,Dong Hailiang,Jason A.Rech,et al.Evolution of Chaka Salt Lake in NW China in response to climatic changed during the latest Pleistocene-Holocene[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2008,27(7):867-879.
[47]朱立平,王君波,林晓,等.西藏纳木错深水湖芯反映的8.4ka以来气候环境变化[J].第四纪研究.2007,27(4):589-595.
[48]类延斌,张虎才,尚华明,等.青藏高原年保玉则山末次冰期中期以来的湖泊演化与古冰川发育[J].第四纪研究,2008,28(1):133-136.
[49]李拓宇,伍永秋,杜世松,等.青藏高原西南部仲巴地区细石器人类活动的时代探讨[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(1):91-94.