温州群发性坡面泥石流临界雨量研究
|
摘要
温州地处浙江东南沿海,降雨充沛。台风等极端气候灾害引起的强降雨次数繁多,并可能引发地区周边泥石流等地质灾害。收集相关地区、时段的气象、水文资料,并对研究区降雨数据进行处理,在野外实地调查、遥感解译的基础上,根据研究区地质灾害调查结果,总结群发性坡面泥石流特征,分析其形成的地质环境条件。针对致灾因子降雨量与温州地区群发性泥石流灾害的因果关系,获取坡面泥石流发生周期内的各时段降雨量,并利用相关性分析确定最大1 h、3 h雨强为研究变量,在二维坐标平面上投影近百个案例点,拟合得出临界雨量方程,并根据泥石流发生与否划分区域计算超越概率和误报概率,得出温州地区泥石流爆发前期雨强满足"两倍关系"的经验结论,寻求解决温州地区实际泥石流地质灾害预警问题的可行性。
Wenzhou is located on the southeast coast of Zhejiang Province with abundant rainfall. Heavy rains caused by extreme weather disasters such as typhoons are numerous and may cause geologic hazards such as debris flows. Collecting meteorological and hydrological data of relevant regions and time periods and processing the rainfall data in the study area are done firstly. Based on the field investigation and remote sensing interpretation,summarizing the characteristics of the grouped debris flows and analyzing its forming geological environmental conditions are done according to the result of the geologic hazard investigation in the study area. Aiming at the causal relationship between the hazard factor,rainfall,and the grouped debris flows in Wenzhou area,the rainfall at certain time in the cycle occurrence of slope debris flows is obtained. With the help of correlation analysis,rainfall intensity maximum of 1 h、3 h are regraded as studied variables and more than one hundred case points are put into two-dimensional coordinate plane to obtain critical rainfall equations for the debris flows. Areas are divided by the judgement of whether debris flow happened or not and the probability of exceeding and the probability of false positives are calculated. As an empirical conclusion,the rainfall intensity in the early breaking stage of debris flow in Wenzhou area satisfies "twice relationship",which explores the feasibility of solving the early warning problems of actual debris flows geological disasters.
Wenzhou is located on the southeast coast of Zhejiang Province with abundant rainfall. Heavy rains caused by extreme weather disasters such as typhoons are numerous and may cause geologic hazards such as debris flows. Collecting meteorological and hydrological data of relevant regions and time periods and processing the rainfall data in the study area are done firstly. Based on the field investigation and remote sensing interpretation,summarizing the characteristics of the grouped debris flows and analyzing its forming geological environmental conditions are done according to the result of the geologic hazard investigation in the study area. Aiming at the causal relationship between the hazard factor,rainfall,and the grouped debris flows in Wenzhou area,the rainfall at certain time in the cycle occurrence of slope debris flows is obtained. With the help of correlation analysis,rainfall intensity maximum of 1 h、3 h are regraded as studied variables and more than one hundred case points are put into two-dimensional coordinate plane to obtain critical rainfall equations for the debris flows. Areas are divided by the judgement of whether debris flow happened or not and the probability of exceeding and the probability of false positives are calculated. As an empirical conclusion,the rainfall intensity in the early breaking stage of debris flow in Wenzhou area satisfies "twice relationship",which explores the feasibility of solving the early warning problems of actual debris flows geological disasters.
引文
[1] KENNETH A. Debris flows during intense rainfall in Snoedonia,North Wales:a preliminary survey[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,1987,12:561-566.
[2] AU S W C. Rainfall and slope failure in Hong Kong[J]. Engineering Geology,1993,36:141-147.
[3] AU S W C. Rain-induced slope instability in Hong Kong[J]. Engineering Geology,1998,41:1-36.
[4] PASUTO A,SILVANO S. Rainfall as a trigger of shallow mass movements:a case study in the Dolomites,Italy[J].Environmental Geology,1998,35(2-3):184-189.
[5] EMMANUEL J G,DOUGLAS W B,JAAKKO K P.Rainfall threshold for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal[J]. Geomophology,2004,63:131-143.
[6]柳源.滑坡临界暴雨强度[J].水文地质工程地质,1998,25(3):43-45.LIU Yuan. Landslide critical storm intensity[J].Hydrogeological&Engineering Geology,1998,25(3):43-45.
[7]谢剑明,刘礼领,殷坤龙,等.浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究[J].地质科技情报,2003,22(4):101-105.XIE Jianming, LIU Liling, YIN Kunlong, et al.Study on the rainfall threshold values of landslide hazards for earlywarning and prediction in Zhejiang Province[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information,2003,22(4):101-105.
[8]高华喜,殷坤龙.降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J].岩土力学,2007,28(5):1055-1060.GAO Huaxi, YIN Kunlong. Discussion on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide earlywarning and prediction[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(5):1055-1060.
[9]李长江,麻土华,李炜,等.滑坡频度-降雨量的分形关系[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(1):87-93.LI Changjiang,MA Tuhua,LI Wei,et al. Fractal relation of landslide frequency and rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2010,21(1):87-93.
[10]刘艳辉,唐灿,吴剑波,等.地质灾害与不同尺度降雨时空分布关系[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(3):74-83.LIU Yanhui,TANG Can,WU Jianbo,et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geohazards and rainfall in different scales[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(3):74-83.
[11]王一鸣,袁民豪,殷坤龙,等.浙东南山丘区泥石流暴发的临界雨量分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(3):21-26.WANG Yiming,YUAN Minhao,YIN Kunlong,et al.Analysis on the critical rainfall for the outbreak of debris flow in southeast mountain area of Zhejiang Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(3):21-26.
[12]黄俊宝.闽东南台风暴雨型滑坡成灾临界降雨量研究[C]//2011年华东六省一市地学科技论坛论文集.福建省地质环境监测中心,2011:212-215.HUANG Junbao. The study on the critical rainfall of typhoon-type landslide disaster in southeast of Fujian[C]//Proceedings of the geoscience and technology forum of the six provinces and one city in East China in 2011. Fujian Provincial Geological Environment Monitoring Center,2011:212-215.
[13]鲍其云,麻土华,李长江,等.浙江62个丘陵县引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时阀值[J].科技通报,2016,32(5):48-55.BAO Qiyun, MA Tuhua, LI Changjiang, et al.Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in 62 hilly and mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province[J]. The Bulletin of Science and Technology,2016,32(5):48-55.
[2] AU S W C. Rainfall and slope failure in Hong Kong[J]. Engineering Geology,1993,36:141-147.
[3] AU S W C. Rain-induced slope instability in Hong Kong[J]. Engineering Geology,1998,41:1-36.
[4] PASUTO A,SILVANO S. Rainfall as a trigger of shallow mass movements:a case study in the Dolomites,Italy[J].Environmental Geology,1998,35(2-3):184-189.
[5] EMMANUEL J G,DOUGLAS W B,JAAKKO K P.Rainfall threshold for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal[J]. Geomophology,2004,63:131-143.
[6]柳源.滑坡临界暴雨强度[J].水文地质工程地质,1998,25(3):43-45.LIU Yuan. Landslide critical storm intensity[J].Hydrogeological&Engineering Geology,1998,25(3):43-45.
[7]谢剑明,刘礼领,殷坤龙,等.浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究[J].地质科技情报,2003,22(4):101-105.XIE Jianming, LIU Liling, YIN Kunlong, et al.Study on the rainfall threshold values of landslide hazards for earlywarning and prediction in Zhejiang Province[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information,2003,22(4):101-105.
[8]高华喜,殷坤龙.降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J].岩土力学,2007,28(5):1055-1060.GAO Huaxi, YIN Kunlong. Discussion on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide earlywarning and prediction[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,28(5):1055-1060.
[9]李长江,麻土华,李炜,等.滑坡频度-降雨量的分形关系[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(1):87-93.LI Changjiang,MA Tuhua,LI Wei,et al. Fractal relation of landslide frequency and rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2010,21(1):87-93.
[10]刘艳辉,唐灿,吴剑波,等.地质灾害与不同尺度降雨时空分布关系[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(3):74-83.LIU Yanhui,TANG Can,WU Jianbo,et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geohazards and rainfall in different scales[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(3):74-83.
[11]王一鸣,袁民豪,殷坤龙,等.浙东南山丘区泥石流暴发的临界雨量分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(3):21-26.WANG Yiming,YUAN Minhao,YIN Kunlong,et al.Analysis on the critical rainfall for the outbreak of debris flow in southeast mountain area of Zhejiang Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(3):21-26.
[12]黄俊宝.闽东南台风暴雨型滑坡成灾临界降雨量研究[C]//2011年华东六省一市地学科技论坛论文集.福建省地质环境监测中心,2011:212-215.HUANG Junbao. The study on the critical rainfall of typhoon-type landslide disaster in southeast of Fujian[C]//Proceedings of the geoscience and technology forum of the six provinces and one city in East China in 2011. Fujian Provincial Geological Environment Monitoring Center,2011:212-215.
[13]鲍其云,麻土华,李长江,等.浙江62个丘陵县引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时阀值[J].科技通报,2016,32(5):48-55.BAO Qiyun, MA Tuhua, LI Changjiang, et al.Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in 62 hilly and mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province[J]. The Bulletin of Science and Technology,2016,32(5):48-55.