中国-CESEE合作的不对称关系和深化合作关系面临的障碍:理解和解决方案
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摘要
自"一带一路"倡议提出以来,中国和中东欧国家合作使双方都取得了巨大的进展和成果。本文基于该背景分析了中国和中东欧国家进一步合作的主要障碍,并为双方政府克服这些困难提供了政策建议。首先,文章回顾了"一带一路"推动双方合作的背景,简要总结了该议题的政策艺术性。然后,基于高层官员及专家间的访谈内容和政治论坛上有关合作事项的与会观察,本文提供了对这些原始数据的分析。文章的分析模型结合了两种衡量推进合作障碍的评估标准。第一种基于对问题源头的探讨,即究竟是外生因素还是内生因素造成的;第二种基于代理—结构二分法。之后,文章为每一种障碍提供了各自的理论分析模型(源于结构的内生因素,源于代理的内生因素,源于结构的外生因素,源于代理的外生因素),并相应给出合作实践中的具体实例。本文的最后一部分对每种障碍存在的可能解决机制做出了分析,并提出了双方在未来如何提高适应力和推进合作的指导原则。
Taking in account the progress and successes that the two sides have achieved since the announcement of the Belt and Road Initative(BRI), the paper analyzes the main obstacles for the advancement of the cooperation between China and the CESEE and offers policy suggestions to both the Chinese and the CESEE governments on how to overcome them. It does so by first, reviewing the context in which the cooperation under the BRI has developed, and secondly, by briefly summarizing the state of the art in terms of policy literature available on the topic, and then providing original analysis based on data collected through interviews with high ranking officials and experts, and participant observation in policy forums related to the cooperation. The analytical model developed in the paper combines two sets of criteria of assessing the obstacles to advancing the cooperation. The first set is based on the origin of the problems, meaning whether they are driven by exogenous factors or endogenous factors.The second set of criteria is based on the agency-structure dichotomy. It then provides a theoretical model for the each of types of obstacles(endogenous rooted in structure, endogenous rooted in agents, exogenous rooted in structure, exogenous rooted in agents), followed by concrete examples from the practice of the cooperation. In the final section, the paper provides an analysis of the possible solutions to individual cases of obstacles, but also general guidelines how to develop resilience and advance the cooperation in future.
Taking in account the progress and successes that the two sides have achieved since the announcement of the Belt and Road Initative(BRI), the paper analyzes the main obstacles for the advancement of the cooperation between China and the CESEE and offers policy suggestions to both the Chinese and the CESEE governments on how to overcome them. It does so by first, reviewing the context in which the cooperation under the BRI has developed, and secondly, by briefly summarizing the state of the art in terms of policy literature available on the topic, and then providing original analysis based on data collected through interviews with high ranking officials and experts, and participant observation in policy forums related to the cooperation. The analytical model developed in the paper combines two sets of criteria of assessing the obstacles to advancing the cooperation. The first set is based on the origin of the problems, meaning whether they are driven by exogenous factors or endogenous factors.The second set of criteria is based on the agency-structure dichotomy. It then provides a theoretical model for the each of types of obstacles(endogenous rooted in structure, endogenous rooted in agents, exogenous rooted in structure, exogenous rooted in agents), followed by concrete examples from the practice of the cooperation. In the final section, the paper provides an analysis of the possible solutions to individual cases of obstacles, but also general guidelines how to develop resilience and advance the cooperation in future.
引文
(1)为了全面评估“16+1”合作(强调前后的经济状况)以及与BRI的联系,请参阅:Anastas Vangeli,China's Engagement with the Sixteen Countries of Central,East and Southeast Europe under the Belt and Road Initiative[J].China&World Economy,2017,25(5)。
(2)抗脆弱能力与回弹性和稳健性不同,在危机时期,有弹性的和/或稳健的战略或合作模式不受外部冲击的影响,会保持不变,抗脆弱的战略或合作模式在受到外部冲击时会变得更加强烈。例如,在面临金融/经济或其他类型的危机时,合作的抵制模式不会受到危机的影响,继续正常运作。然而,在危机时期,抗脆弱模式将变得更有效率,并从危机中获益。抗脆弱的概念由尼古拉斯·纳西姆·塔勒布(Nicholas Nassim Taleb)进行普及,请参阅:Nicholas Nassim Taleb,Antifragile:Things ThatGain from Disorder,New York:Random House,2014。
(3)Seven Asymmetries in Polish-Chinese Relations-How to Deal with Them?Warsaw:Centrum Studi 6 w PolskaAzja[2015-04-08].http://www.polska-azja.pl/r-pyffel-seven-asymmetries-in-polish-chinese-relations-how-todeal-with-them/.
(1)根据Pyffel,这些是不平等的政府能力、时间观点、前景和优先事项、期望、政治文化、规模和贸易不对称。
(2)这需要一个更复杂的布尔迪厄方法来处理象征性统治/权力。
(1)对于集体行动理论,请参阅:Olson,Mancur.The Logic of Collective Action:Public Goods and the Theory of Groups,Second Printing with New Preface and Appendix,Boston:Harvard University Press,1965;Olson,Mancur.Increasing the Incentives for International Cooperation.International Organization,1971,25(4).
(2)Roo,Gert de and Porter,Geoff.Fuzzy Planning:The Role of Actors in a Fuzzy Governance Environment.Farnham:AshgatePublishing,Ltd.,2007.
(1)这表明作为BRI一部分的“16+1”平台有可能重新绘制地缘政治区城的观念、表征和意义。正如最近由欧洲复兴开发银行委托的一份报告所指出的那样:“这种从北京策划推动的地缘政治影响可能是巨大而长远的。他们可以转移整个大陆的商业和地缘政治轴心。”European Bank for Reform and Development.The Potential for Growth through Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Central and South-EasternEurope along the"Balkan Silk Road",2017.
(1)Vangeli,Anastas.China's Engagement with the Sixteen Countries of Central,East and Southeast Europe under thte Beltand Road Initiative,China&World Economy,2017,25(5).
(2)What Is the Real Cooperation Between China and the Countries of Southeastern Europe HowMay Export to the Chinese Market Be Increased?The Market for Ideas[2017-04-06].http://www.themarketforideas.com/what-is-thereal-cooperation-between-china-and-the-countries-of-southeastern-europe-how-may-export-to-the-chinesemarket-be-increased-a227/.
(1)Mthembu Philani,Self-Reliance or Dependency?The Role of China's Development Finance in Enhancing African Agency,Pretoria:Institute for Global Dialogue,2017.
(2)邱志博.“三贏”:北京的国际产能合作蓝图[J].中国简报,2015,(18).
(1)Jakobowski,Jakub and Kaczmarski,Marcin.Beijing's Mistaken Offer:The“16+1”and China's Policy towards the European Union,Warsaw:Osrodek Studiow Wschodnich,2017.
(2)中国与欧洲的互联互通:可以学到的经验教训[R].里加:拉脱维亚国际事务研究所,2016.
(2)抗脆弱能力与回弹性和稳健性不同,在危机时期,有弹性的和/或稳健的战略或合作模式不受外部冲击的影响,会保持不变,抗脆弱的战略或合作模式在受到外部冲击时会变得更加强烈。例如,在面临金融/经济或其他类型的危机时,合作的抵制模式不会受到危机的影响,继续正常运作。然而,在危机时期,抗脆弱模式将变得更有效率,并从危机中获益。抗脆弱的概念由尼古拉斯·纳西姆·塔勒布(Nicholas Nassim Taleb)进行普及,请参阅:Nicholas Nassim Taleb,Antifragile:Things ThatGain from Disorder,New York:Random House,2014。
(3)Seven Asymmetries in Polish-Chinese Relations-How to Deal with Them?Warsaw:Centrum Studi 6 w PolskaAzja[2015-04-08].http://www.polska-azja.pl/r-pyffel-seven-asymmetries-in-polish-chinese-relations-how-todeal-with-them/.
(1)根据Pyffel,这些是不平等的政府能力、时间观点、前景和优先事项、期望、政治文化、规模和贸易不对称。
(2)这需要一个更复杂的布尔迪厄方法来处理象征性统治/权力。
(1)对于集体行动理论,请参阅:Olson,Mancur.The Logic of Collective Action:Public Goods and the Theory of Groups,Second Printing with New Preface and Appendix,Boston:Harvard University Press,1965;Olson,Mancur.Increasing the Incentives for International Cooperation.International Organization,1971,25(4).
(2)Roo,Gert de and Porter,Geoff.Fuzzy Planning:The Role of Actors in a Fuzzy Governance Environment.Farnham:AshgatePublishing,Ltd.,2007.
(1)这表明作为BRI一部分的“16+1”平台有可能重新绘制地缘政治区城的观念、表征和意义。正如最近由欧洲复兴开发银行委托的一份报告所指出的那样:“这种从北京策划推动的地缘政治影响可能是巨大而长远的。他们可以转移整个大陆的商业和地缘政治轴心。”European Bank for Reform and Development.The Potential for Growth through Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Central and South-EasternEurope along the"Balkan Silk Road",2017.
(1)Vangeli,Anastas.China's Engagement with the Sixteen Countries of Central,East and Southeast Europe under thte Beltand Road Initiative,China&World Economy,2017,25(5).
(2)What Is the Real Cooperation Between China and the Countries of Southeastern Europe HowMay Export to the Chinese Market Be Increased?The Market for Ideas[2017-04-06].http://www.themarketforideas.com/what-is-thereal-cooperation-between-china-and-the-countries-of-southeastern-europe-how-may-export-to-the-chinesemarket-be-increased-a227/.
(1)Mthembu Philani,Self-Reliance or Dependency?The Role of China's Development Finance in Enhancing African Agency,Pretoria:Institute for Global Dialogue,2017.
(2)邱志博.“三贏”:北京的国际产能合作蓝图[J].中国简报,2015,(18).
(1)Jakobowski,Jakub and Kaczmarski,Marcin.Beijing's Mistaken Offer:The“16+1”and China's Policy towards the European Union,Warsaw:Osrodek Studiow Wschodnich,2017.
(2)中国与欧洲的互联互通:可以学到的经验教训[R].里加:拉脱维亚国际事务研究所,2016.