基于电力数据的湖南省去产能政策效应研究
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摘要
去产能作为深入推进供给侧结构性改革的重要内容,探析湖南省去产能推进效果和政策效应对于实现高质量经济发展的重要意义。以湖南省电力数据为依托,选择煤炭、钢铁、水泥等高耗能行业为研究对象,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型分析去产能冲击下各行业的响应情况,结果发现短期内产能变化对行业存在一定程度的震荡性冲击,但长期受市场出清和行业周期的影响,震荡冲击效应逐渐被市场消化吸纳,最终引致技术革新,企业恢复生产,实现营业收入和利润的增加。综述研究结论提出相关政策建议。
As an important content of deepening supply-side structural reform,capacity reduction in Hunan province is of great significance to achieve high-quality economic development by exploring the efficiency and policy effect of capacity reduction. In this paper,based on power data in Hunan province,coal,steel,cement and other energy-intensive industries are selected as the research object,and vector autoregressive( VAR) model is constructed to analyze the effect of various industries under capacity reduction. It is found that the short-term capacity change impact is associated with some degree of shock to the industry,but in the long term it is affected by market clearing and industry cycle,and shock hit effect gradually is absorbed by the market,eventually leading to technological innovation,enterprise reply production and realizing the increase of the revenue and profit. Finally,based on the above research conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.
As an important content of deepening supply-side structural reform,capacity reduction in Hunan province is of great significance to achieve high-quality economic development by exploring the efficiency and policy effect of capacity reduction. In this paper,based on power data in Hunan province,coal,steel,cement and other energy-intensive industries are selected as the research object,and vector autoregressive( VAR) model is constructed to analyze the effect of various industries under capacity reduction. It is found that the short-term capacity change impact is associated with some degree of shock to the industry,but in the long term it is affected by market clearing and industry cycle,and shock hit effect gradually is absorbed by the market,eventually leading to technological innovation,enterprise reply production and realizing the increase of the revenue and profit. Finally,based on the above research conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.
引文
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[2]刘志彪.房地产去库存:供给侧结构改革的重中之重[J].江苏行政学院学报,2016(4):36-41.
[3]向为民,王霜.房地产“去库存”与对应取向[J].改革,2016(6):111-119.
[4]刘尚希,樊轶侠,封北麟.“去产能”财政政策分析、评估及建议[J].经济纵横,2018(1):81-91,2.
[5]韩国高,胡文明.去产能对中国工业投资效率的效应分析[J].管理现代化,2015,35(6):28-30.
[6]连莲,李孟刚,叶旭廷.新常态下钢铁产业“去产能”研究[J].经济纵横,2016(7):37-41.
[7]张杰,宋志刚.供给侧结构性改革中“降成本”的战略内涵与具体途径[J].经济体制改革,2016(5):5-11.