全球大气降水年均氚浓度恢复模型(1960—2014年)
|
摘要
运用环境同位素氚(3H)建立模型来定量研究地下水运动规律已被广泛应用于水文地质和环境监测领域,大气降水氚浓度是这类模型中必须的输入值.目前已建立的全球大气降水氚浓度模型(MGMTP)为这一领域的研究提供了一种恢复全球范围内年平均氚浓度的新方法,但该氚浓度模型后期恢复数据出现异常负值及面临适用年限等问题.因此,本文选用国际原子能机构和世界气象组织提供的1960—2014年全球氚浓度值实测资料,基于因子分析法拓展了MGMTP模型的适用年份,并对不同的数据预处理及分析方法进行了对比,同时对MGMTP模型提及的"异常负值"问题进行了进一步明确与改进.最后把模型应用于南北半球的典型站点,将恢复得到的数据与实测数据进行对比,发现拓展后的MGMTP模型结果能较好地拟合实测数据.研究表明,该模型具有简单易用、时间序列长、全球性适用等优点,尤其对缺少大气降水氚浓度实测数据的地区具有重要参考价值.
The use of environmental isotope of tritium to establish the quantitative model of groundwater flow has been widely applied in the field of hydrogeology and environmental monitoring. Zhang Yanhong et al. developed‘MGMTP'( modified global model of tritium in precipitation) to provide a new method for the quantitative study of tritium concentration in the global scale,but the tritium model is now facing a problem of limit period and predicts negative values for the year after 1990. In this paper,we used the dataset over the period from 1960 to 2014 provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency and World Meteorological Organization( IAEA&WMO) to extend the time period of MGMTP model based on factor analysis. At the same time,we also compared the difference between data preprocessing and analysis methods. The problem of negative values predicted by MGMTP model mentioned by Zhang et al. was further clarified and fixed. This extended MGMTP model was applied to the typical stations of the northern and southern hemispheres. The results showed that it can well calculate the annual mean tritium concentration in precipitation over the world from 1960 to 2014,which is especially necessary and valuable for the area with few or without the monitoring data.
The use of environmental isotope of tritium to establish the quantitative model of groundwater flow has been widely applied in the field of hydrogeology and environmental monitoring. Zhang Yanhong et al. developed‘MGMTP'( modified global model of tritium in precipitation) to provide a new method for the quantitative study of tritium concentration in the global scale,but the tritium model is now facing a problem of limit period and predicts negative values for the year after 1990. In this paper,we used the dataset over the period from 1960 to 2014 provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency and World Meteorological Organization( IAEA&WMO) to extend the time period of MGMTP model based on factor analysis. At the same time,we also compared the difference between data preprocessing and analysis methods. The problem of negative values predicted by MGMTP model mentioned by Zhang et al. was further clarified and fixed. This extended MGMTP model was applied to the typical stations of the northern and southern hemispheres. The results showed that it can well calculate the annual mean tritium concentration in precipitation over the world from 1960 to 2014,which is especially necessary and valuable for the area with few or without the monitoring data.
引文
巴琦,徐永福.2010.氚输入函数的构造与北太平洋氚分布的模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,40(1):115-126
Birkel C,Soulsby C.2016.Advancing tracer-aided rainfall-runof modelling:a review of progress,problems and unrealised potentia[J].Hydrological Processes,29(25):5227-5240
Cauquoin A,Jean-Baptiste P,Risi C,et al.2017.Modeling the globa bomb-tritium transient signal with the AGCM LMDZ-iso:a method to evaluate aspects of the hydrological cycle[J].Journal o Geophysical Research,121(21):12612-12629
陈宗宇,聂振龙,张荷生,等.2004.从黑河流域地下水年龄论其资源属性[J].地质学报,78(4):560-567
程中双.2015.强烈开采含水层的水化学和同位素响应及其水文地质指示[D].北京:中国地质科学院
崔亚莉,刘峰,郝奇琛,等.2015.诺木洪冲洪积扇地下水氢氧同位素特征及更新能力研究[J].水文地质工程地质,42(6):1-7
Doney S C,Glover D M,Jenkins W J.1992.A model function of the globa bomb tritium distribution in precipitation,1960-1986[J].Journal o Geophysical Research Oceans,97(C4):5481-5492
Gleeson T,Befus K M,Jasechko S,et al.2016.The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater[J].Nature Geoscience,9(2):161-167
何晓群.2010.应用多元统计分析[M].北京:中国统计出版社.253-316
IAEA,WMO.2016.GNIP Database:Global network of tritium in precipitation[OL].https://websso.iaea.org.
靳书贺,姜纪沂,迟宝明,等.2016.基于环境同位素与水化学的霍城县平原区地下水循环模式[J].水文地质工程地质,43(4):43-51
金在温,查尔斯·M·米勒.2015.因子分析:统计方法与应用问题[M].叶华译.上海:格致出版社+上海人民出版社
Koster R D,Broecker W S,Jouzel J,et al.1989.The global geochemistry of bomb-produced tritium:General circulation model compared to available observations and traditional interpretations[J].Journal of Geophysical Research 94(D15):18305-18326
李永江,刘春雨.2016.多元分析原理及应用[M].北京:经济科学出版社.78-107
连炎清.1990.大气降水氚含量恢复的多元统计学方法:以临汾地区降水氚值恢复为例[J].中国岩溶,9(2):157-166
龙文华,陈鸿汉,段青梅,等.2008.人工神经网络方法在大气降水氚浓度恢复中的应用[J].地质与资源,17(3):208-212
Lucas L L,Unterweger M P.2000.Comprehensive review and critical evaluation of the half-life of tritium[J].Journal of Research of the National Institute of Standards&Technology,105(4):541-549
马致远.2004.环境同位素方法在平凉市岩溶地下水研究中的应用[J].地质论评,50(4):433-439
马致远,高文义.1997.用天然氚确定隐伏岩溶水滞留时间及含水层参数[J].煤田地质与勘探,25(4):34-38
Michel R L.1992.Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records[J].Journal of Hydrology,130(1/4):367-378
汪东华.2010.多元统计分析与SPSS应用[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社.93-226
王凤生.1998.吉林省大气降水氚浓度恢复的区域模型探讨[J].吉林地质,17(3):75-81
王瑞久.1984.山西娘子关泉的地下水储量估算[J].水文地质工程地质,(6):38-42
王绍令,李作福,刘景寿,等.1990.青藏高原东部地表水、地下水的氚同位素研究[J].环境科学,11(1):24-27,23
Weiss W,Roether W.1980.The rates of tritium input to the world oceans[J].Earth&Planetary Science Letters,49(2):435-446
吴秉钧.1986.我国大气降水中氚的数值推算[J].水文地质工程地质,(4):42-45,53
许乃政,刘红樱,魏峰,等.2015.江苏洋口港地区地下水的环境同位素组成及其形成演化研究[J].环境科学学报,35(12):3862-3871
章艳红,叶淑君,吴吉春.2011.全球大气降水中年平均氚浓度的恢复模型[J].地质论评,57(3):409-418
Zhang Y,Ye S,Wu J.2011.A modified global model for predicting the tritium distribution in precipitation,1960-2005[J].Hydrol Process,25(15):2379-2392
张应华,仵彦卿,温小虎,等.2006.环境同位素在水循环研究中的应用[J].水科学进展,17(5):738-747
Birkel C,Soulsby C.2016.Advancing tracer-aided rainfall-runof modelling:a review of progress,problems and unrealised potentia[J].Hydrological Processes,29(25):5227-5240
Cauquoin A,Jean-Baptiste P,Risi C,et al.2017.Modeling the globa bomb-tritium transient signal with the AGCM LMDZ-iso:a method to evaluate aspects of the hydrological cycle[J].Journal o Geophysical Research,121(21):12612-12629
陈宗宇,聂振龙,张荷生,等.2004.从黑河流域地下水年龄论其资源属性[J].地质学报,78(4):560-567
程中双.2015.强烈开采含水层的水化学和同位素响应及其水文地质指示[D].北京:中国地质科学院
崔亚莉,刘峰,郝奇琛,等.2015.诺木洪冲洪积扇地下水氢氧同位素特征及更新能力研究[J].水文地质工程地质,42(6):1-7
Doney S C,Glover D M,Jenkins W J.1992.A model function of the globa bomb tritium distribution in precipitation,1960-1986[J].Journal o Geophysical Research Oceans,97(C4):5481-5492
Gleeson T,Befus K M,Jasechko S,et al.2016.The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater[J].Nature Geoscience,9(2):161-167
何晓群.2010.应用多元统计分析[M].北京:中国统计出版社.253-316
IAEA,WMO.2016.GNIP Database:Global network of tritium in precipitation[OL].https://websso.iaea.org.
靳书贺,姜纪沂,迟宝明,等.2016.基于环境同位素与水化学的霍城县平原区地下水循环模式[J].水文地质工程地质,43(4):43-51
金在温,查尔斯·M·米勒.2015.因子分析:统计方法与应用问题[M].叶华译.上海:格致出版社+上海人民出版社
Koster R D,Broecker W S,Jouzel J,et al.1989.The global geochemistry of bomb-produced tritium:General circulation model compared to available observations and traditional interpretations[J].Journal of Geophysical Research 94(D15):18305-18326
李永江,刘春雨.2016.多元分析原理及应用[M].北京:经济科学出版社.78-107
连炎清.1990.大气降水氚含量恢复的多元统计学方法:以临汾地区降水氚值恢复为例[J].中国岩溶,9(2):157-166
龙文华,陈鸿汉,段青梅,等.2008.人工神经网络方法在大气降水氚浓度恢复中的应用[J].地质与资源,17(3):208-212
Lucas L L,Unterweger M P.2000.Comprehensive review and critical evaluation of the half-life of tritium[J].Journal of Research of the National Institute of Standards&Technology,105(4):541-549
马致远.2004.环境同位素方法在平凉市岩溶地下水研究中的应用[J].地质论评,50(4):433-439
马致远,高文义.1997.用天然氚确定隐伏岩溶水滞留时间及含水层参数[J].煤田地质与勘探,25(4):34-38
Michel R L.1992.Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records[J].Journal of Hydrology,130(1/4):367-378
汪东华.2010.多元统计分析与SPSS应用[M].上海:华东理工大学出版社.93-226
王凤生.1998.吉林省大气降水氚浓度恢复的区域模型探讨[J].吉林地质,17(3):75-81
王瑞久.1984.山西娘子关泉的地下水储量估算[J].水文地质工程地质,(6):38-42
王绍令,李作福,刘景寿,等.1990.青藏高原东部地表水、地下水的氚同位素研究[J].环境科学,11(1):24-27,23
Weiss W,Roether W.1980.The rates of tritium input to the world oceans[J].Earth&Planetary Science Letters,49(2):435-446
吴秉钧.1986.我国大气降水中氚的数值推算[J].水文地质工程地质,(4):42-45,53
许乃政,刘红樱,魏峰,等.2015.江苏洋口港地区地下水的环境同位素组成及其形成演化研究[J].环境科学学报,35(12):3862-3871
章艳红,叶淑君,吴吉春.2011.全球大气降水中年平均氚浓度的恢复模型[J].地质论评,57(3):409-418
Zhang Y,Ye S,Wu J.2011.A modified global model for predicting the tritium distribution in precipitation,1960-2005[J].Hydrol Process,25(15):2379-2392
张应华,仵彦卿,温小虎,等.2006.环境同位素在水循环研究中的应用[J].水科学进展,17(5):738-747