城市轨道交通BOT项目补偿数量仿真模型
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摘要
城市轨道交通项目的建设和运营成本较高,而票价相对较低,为了激励私营企业进入,在采用BOT模式时,政府需要实施一定数量的补偿.本文在项目社会经济效益的基础上,提出了私营企业和政府部门双方的投资基准条件,通过区分确定性和不确定性参数,构建了资金补偿数量的蒙特卡洛仿真模型,并以北京地铁4号线为例,分析得到了该BOT项目的最优补偿数量和不确定性参数对私营企业、政府部门双方净现值的影响程度.该方法可应用于政府部门的补偿决策,并可推广应用到市政基础设施建设等项目上.
In order to encourage private enterprises invest urban rail transit, government usually gives some subsidies for them, because of the high cost of construction and operation, while the price is low. The Monte Carlo simulation model for subsidies is built, through distinguishing the uncertain parameters and deterministic parameters, while investment conditions of private enterprises and government are considered.Finally, Beijing metro line 4 is taken as an example, the optimal subsidies of the BOT project is calculated,the influence of uncertain factors on both private enterprises and government is analyzed. The method can be applied to the compensation decision of the government department, and it can be applied to the construction of municipal infrastructure projects.
In order to encourage private enterprises invest urban rail transit, government usually gives some subsidies for them, because of the high cost of construction and operation, while the price is low. The Monte Carlo simulation model for subsidies is built, through distinguishing the uncertain parameters and deterministic parameters, while investment conditions of private enterprises and government are considered.Finally, Beijing metro line 4 is taken as an example, the optimal subsidies of the BOT project is calculated,the influence of uncertain factors on both private enterprises and government is analyzed. The method can be applied to the compensation decision of the government department, and it can be applied to the construction of municipal infrastructure projects.
引文
[1]叶苏东.BOT模式开发城市轨道交通项目的补偿机制研究[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2012,4(11):22-29.[YE S D.Study on the subsidizing system of urban railway transport project under BOT model[J]Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University Social Sciences Edition,2012,4(11):22-29.]
[2]吴孝灵,周晶,彭以忱,等.基于公私博弈的PPP项目政府补偿机制研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(21):198-204.[WU X L,ZHOU J,PENG Y C,et al.Government’s compensation mechanism for PPP project based on game between public and private sector[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013(21):198-204.]
[3]田振清.城市轨道交通运营补贴模式及参数研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(1):33-37.[TIAN Z Q.On mode with parameters of operational subsidy of urban rail transit[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2010,10(1):33-37.]
[4]MOURAVIEV N,KAKABADSE N,ROBINSON I.Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan:A critical review[J].International Journal of Public Administration,2012(35):410-420.
[5]吕俊娜.不确定收益下交通BOT项目特许期决策模型研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2014.[LV J N.Research on decision-making model on concession period for BOTtransportation project under uncertain revenue[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2014.]
[6]FENMAY LIOU,CHIHPIN HUANG,BORLIANGCHEN.Model government subsidies and project risk for finacially non-viable build-operate-transfer(BOT)project[J].Engineering Management Journal,2012,1(24):58-64.
[7]胡振,王秀婧,刘华.购买型公司合作(PPP)项目财政补偿的有效区间研究[J].建筑经济,2013(3):93-96.[HU Z,WANG X J,LIU H.Study on available compensation field of PPP project[J].Construction Economics,2013(3):93-96.]
[8]SHA ZHENG,ROBERT L,TIONG K.First publicpartnership application in taiwan’s wastewater treatment sector:Case study of nanzih BOT wastewater treatment projet[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2010,136(8):913-922.
[9]黄智星,申金升,王传涛.PPP模式下的城市轨道交通项目投资策略研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,16(2):14-18.[HUANG Z X,SHEN J S,WANGC T.Project investment in the field of urban rail transit under the PPP mode[J].Journal of Transportation System Engineering and Information Technology,2016,16(2):14-18.]
[10]SHI S S,YIN Y F,GUO X L.Optimal choice of capacity,toll and government guarantee for buildoperate-transfer roads under asymmetric cost information[J].Transportation Research Part B,2016(86):56-69.
[11]HANAOKA S,PALAPUS H P.Reasonable concession period for build-operate-transfer road projects in the philippines[J].International Journal of Projec Management,2012,30(8):938-949.
[12]WU M,CHAU K W,SHEN Q P,et al.Net asset valuebased concession duration model for BOT contracts[J]Journal of Construction Engineering and Management2012,138(2):304-308.
[13]THOMAS NG S,XIE J Z,CHEUNG Y K,et al.Asimulation model for optimizing the concession period o public-private partnerships schemes[J].Internationa Journal of Project Management,2007(25):792-793.
[14]张庆娟.城市轨道交通成本构成分析:以北京地铁4号线为例[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.[ZHANG QJ.The analysis on cost of urban rail transit:with example of Beijing subway line 4[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2010.
[15]高永玲,杨浩,孙强.城市轨道交通项目建设实际选择的实物期权随机变量模型[J].铁道学报,2008,6(30):15-18.[GAO Y L,YANG H,SUN Q.A real option model with stochastic variables of construction timing selection of urban rail transit projects[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2008,6(30):15-18.]
(1)北京地铁2015年后平均票价约为4.4元/人次,4号线需与其他线路分摊票务收入,平均票价约为2.25元/人次.
[2]吴孝灵,周晶,彭以忱,等.基于公私博弈的PPP项目政府补偿机制研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(21):198-204.[WU X L,ZHOU J,PENG Y C,et al.Government’s compensation mechanism for PPP project based on game between public and private sector[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013(21):198-204.]
[3]田振清.城市轨道交通运营补贴模式及参数研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(1):33-37.[TIAN Z Q.On mode with parameters of operational subsidy of urban rail transit[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2010,10(1):33-37.]
[4]MOURAVIEV N,KAKABADSE N,ROBINSON I.Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan:A critical review[J].International Journal of Public Administration,2012(35):410-420.
[5]吕俊娜.不确定收益下交通BOT项目特许期决策模型研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2014.[LV J N.Research on decision-making model on concession period for BOTtransportation project under uncertain revenue[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2014.]
[6]FENMAY LIOU,CHIHPIN HUANG,BORLIANGCHEN.Model government subsidies and project risk for finacially non-viable build-operate-transfer(BOT)project[J].Engineering Management Journal,2012,1(24):58-64.
[7]胡振,王秀婧,刘华.购买型公司合作(PPP)项目财政补偿的有效区间研究[J].建筑经济,2013(3):93-96.[HU Z,WANG X J,LIU H.Study on available compensation field of PPP project[J].Construction Economics,2013(3):93-96.]
[8]SHA ZHENG,ROBERT L,TIONG K.First publicpartnership application in taiwan’s wastewater treatment sector:Case study of nanzih BOT wastewater treatment projet[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2010,136(8):913-922.
[9]黄智星,申金升,王传涛.PPP模式下的城市轨道交通项目投资策略研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,16(2):14-18.[HUANG Z X,SHEN J S,WANGC T.Project investment in the field of urban rail transit under the PPP mode[J].Journal of Transportation System Engineering and Information Technology,2016,16(2):14-18.]
[10]SHI S S,YIN Y F,GUO X L.Optimal choice of capacity,toll and government guarantee for buildoperate-transfer roads under asymmetric cost information[J].Transportation Research Part B,2016(86):56-69.
[11]HANAOKA S,PALAPUS H P.Reasonable concession period for build-operate-transfer road projects in the philippines[J].International Journal of Projec Management,2012,30(8):938-949.
[12]WU M,CHAU K W,SHEN Q P,et al.Net asset valuebased concession duration model for BOT contracts[J]Journal of Construction Engineering and Management2012,138(2):304-308.
[13]THOMAS NG S,XIE J Z,CHEUNG Y K,et al.Asimulation model for optimizing the concession period o public-private partnerships schemes[J].Internationa Journal of Project Management,2007(25):792-793.
[14]张庆娟.城市轨道交通成本构成分析:以北京地铁4号线为例[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.[ZHANG QJ.The analysis on cost of urban rail transit:with example of Beijing subway line 4[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2010.
[15]高永玲,杨浩,孙强.城市轨道交通项目建设实际选择的实物期权随机变量模型[J].铁道学报,2008,6(30):15-18.[GAO Y L,YANG H,SUN Q.A real option model with stochastic variables of construction timing selection of urban rail transit projects[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2008,6(30):15-18.]
(1)北京地铁2015年后平均票价约为4.4元/人次,4号线需与其他线路分摊票务收入,平均票价约为2.25元/人次.