基于景观安全格局的城镇建设用地扩张多情景模拟研究——以扬州市为例
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摘要
城镇建设用地多情景模拟有利于实现土地资源优化配置,保障区域可持续发展。本文以扬州市为例,以2005年、2013年土地利用变更数据为训练数据,借助景观安全格局与ANN-CA模型模拟城镇建设用地扩张趋势,并利用城镇建设用地转移矩阵与景观格局指数分析2013—2020年城镇建设用地模拟结果。研究结果表明:(1)不同情景下的城镇建设用地模拟扩张占用其他景观规模不同,但均占用农村居民点规模最多,其中,惯性发展情景下,模拟新增城镇建设用地以布局在低景观安全格局为主,占用耕地、水域、林地规模较高;基本保障情景下,模拟新增的城镇建设用地主要布局在中景观安全格局区域,较惯性发展情景占用耕地规模增加,占用水域、林地规模减少;与惯性发展情景、基本保障情景相比,最优保护情景下占用耕地规模略高但集中于高景观安全格局区,新增占用水域规模、林地规模降低。(2)不同情景下的景观格局也存在差异,惯性发展情景下,景观格局变化一定程度有利于促进城镇化发展,但不利于耕地机械化生产,影响林地、水域生态服务功能;基本保障情景下,景观格局变化一定程度上有利于城乡社会经济发展,对非人工景观的破坏程度较惯性发展情景降低;最优保护情景下,景观格局变化更有利于区域社会、经济及生态发展。(3)惯性发展情景下,应适当规划生态基础设施,严格划定永久性基本农田;基本保障情景下,应充分发挥景观安全格局的生态底线功能,引导城镇建设用地合理开发与布局;最优保护情景下,可通过存量建设用地挖潜等措施提高土地集约利用水平。
Multi-scenario simulating the expansion of urban construction land is beneficial to the realization of the optimal allocation of land resources and the sustainable development of the region. Taking Yangzhou City as an example, taking the land use change datum of 2005 and 2013 year as training datum, this paper simulates the expansion trend of urban construction land based on ANN-CA model, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each simulated scenario by using land transfer matrix for urban construction and landscape pattern index of 2013—2020 year. The results indicate: 1) The scales of other landscape occupied by the expansion of urban construction are different in different scenarios, but rural settlement is occupied most in each scenario. In the inertial development scenario, the new urban construction land is mainly clustered in the region with low landscape security pattern, and occupies more arable land, waters and woodland. In the basic security scenario, the new urban construction land is mainly distributed in the region with middle landscape security pattern. Compared to the inertial development scenario, it occupies more arable land but less waters and woodland. The optimal protection scenario occupies more arable land but less waters and woodland compared with the inertial development scenario and the basic security scenario, but mainly concentrates in the region with high landscape security pattern. 2) Landscape patterns are different in the three scenarios. In the inertial development scenario, landscape pattern change is conducive to the development of urbanization, but adverse to the mechanized production of arable land and the ecological service functions of woodland and waters. In the basic security scenario, landscape pattern change is beneficial to the social and economic development of urban and rural areas to a certain extent, and damages less to waters and woodland than the inertial development scenario. In the optimal protection scenario, landscape pattern change is more conducive to the regional social, economic and ecological development. 3) In the inertial development scenario, the ecological infrastructure should be planned properly and the permanent basic farmland should be delimited strictly. In the basic security scenario, the government should give full play to the ecological bottom line function of the landscape security pattern and guide the rational development and layout of the urban construction land. In optimal protection scenario, the government should improve the level of intensive land use by exploitering the stock construction land and so on.
Multi-scenario simulating the expansion of urban construction land is beneficial to the realization of the optimal allocation of land resources and the sustainable development of the region. Taking Yangzhou City as an example, taking the land use change datum of 2005 and 2013 year as training datum, this paper simulates the expansion trend of urban construction land based on ANN-CA model, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each simulated scenario by using land transfer matrix for urban construction and landscape pattern index of 2013—2020 year. The results indicate: 1) The scales of other landscape occupied by the expansion of urban construction are different in different scenarios, but rural settlement is occupied most in each scenario. In the inertial development scenario, the new urban construction land is mainly clustered in the region with low landscape security pattern, and occupies more arable land, waters and woodland. In the basic security scenario, the new urban construction land is mainly distributed in the region with middle landscape security pattern. Compared to the inertial development scenario, it occupies more arable land but less waters and woodland. The optimal protection scenario occupies more arable land but less waters and woodland compared with the inertial development scenario and the basic security scenario, but mainly concentrates in the region with high landscape security pattern. 2) Landscape patterns are different in the three scenarios. In the inertial development scenario, landscape pattern change is conducive to the development of urbanization, but adverse to the mechanized production of arable land and the ecological service functions of woodland and waters. In the basic security scenario, landscape pattern change is beneficial to the social and economic development of urban and rural areas to a certain extent, and damages less to waters and woodland than the inertial development scenario. In the optimal protection scenario, landscape pattern change is more conducive to the regional social, economic and ecological development. 3) In the inertial development scenario, the ecological infrastructure should be planned properly and the permanent basic farmland should be delimited strictly. In the basic security scenario, the government should give full play to the ecological bottom line function of the landscape security pattern and guide the rational development and layout of the urban construction land. In optimal protection scenario, the government should improve the level of intensive land use by exploitering the stock construction land and so on.
引文
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[35]王伟武,金建伟,肖作鹏,等.近18年来杭州城市用地扩展特征及其驱动机制[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):685-695
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[2]翟腾腾,郭杰,欧名豪.基于相对资源承载力的江苏省建设用地管制分区研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(2):69-75
[3]Karen C S,Güneralp B,Hutyra L R.Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools[J].PNAS,2012,109(40):16083-16088
[4]陈伟强,潘元庆,马月红,等.基于约束性CA模型的城市开发边界划定方法[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(4):278-284
[5]吴巍,周生路,魏也华,等.中心城区城市增长的情景模拟与空间格局演化--以福建省泉州市为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2041-2054
[6]马世发,艾彬.基于地理模型与优化的城市扩张与生态保护二元空间协调优化[J].生态学报,2015,35(17):5874-5883
[7]王思易,欧名豪.基于景观安全格局的建设用地管制分区[J].生态学报,2013,33(14):4425-4435
[8]马克明,傅伯杰,黎晓亚,等.区域生态安全格局:概念与理论基础[J].生态学报,2004,24(4):761-768
[9]黎晓亚,马克明,傅伯杰,等.区域生态安全格局:设计原则与方法[J].生态学报,2004,24(5):1055-1062
[10]俞孔坚,王思思,李迪华,等.北京城市扩张的生态底线--基本生态系统服务及其安全格局[J].城市规划,2010(2):19-24
[11]俞孔坚,王思思,李迪华,等.北京市生态安全格局及城市增长预景[J].生态学报,2009,29(3):1189-1204
[12]俞孔坚,李迪华,韩西丽,等.新农村建设规划与城市扩张的景观安全格局途径--以马岗村为例[J].城市规划学刊,2006(5):38-45
[13]张利,周亚鹏,门明新,等.基于不同种类生态安全的土地利用情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(5):308-316
[14]傅伯杰,陈利顶,马克明,等.景观生态学原理及应用.北京:科学出版社,2011
[15]高玉宏,张丽娟,李文亮,等.基于空间模型和CA的城市用地扩展模拟研究--以大庆市为例[J].地理科学,2010,16(5):723-727
[16]张翔,邓志民,李丹,等.汉江流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应模拟研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(10):1449-1455
[17]黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):159-166
[18]范树平,刘友兆,程从坤,等.巢湖流域土地利用效益测度与综合判定[J].土壤,2017,49(4):838-845
[19]谢高地,甄霖,鲁春霞,等.一个基于专家知识的生态系统服务价值化方法[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(5):911-919
[20]薛东前,王传胜.城市群演化的空间过程及土地利用优化配置[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):95-102
[21]吕晓,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.土地利用规划对建设用地扩张的管控效果分析--基于一致性与有效性的复合视角[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):177-187
[22]孙君,奚赛英,尤迪,等.基于ArcGIS的洪水淹没分析与三维模拟[J].城市地质,2012,7(3):31-33
[23]胡望舒,王思思.基于焦点物种的北京市生物保护安全格局规划[J].生态学报,2010,30(16):4266-4276
[24]俞孔坚,乔青,李迪华,等.基于景观安全格局分析的生态用地研究--以北京市东三乡为例[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(8):1932-1939
[25]黄京鸿,刁承泰.重庆市城市用地供需状况研究[J].经济地理,2003,23(4):504-507
[26]刘书楷,曲福田.土地经济学[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2002:30-39
[27]彭博,石黄磊.武汉市工业用地生态适宜性评价[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(2):74-78
[28]姜海,曲福田.县域建设用地集约水平影响因素计量分析--以江苏省为例[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(8):6-12
[29]梁华,马小刚.土地供给制度、经济增长与宏观调控--基于文献研究[J].生态经济,2010(1):20-24
[30]孔伟,郭杰,欧名豪.不同经济发展水平下的建设用地集约利用及区域差别化管控[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):100-106
[31]马建华,李灿,陈云增.土地利用与经济增长对城市土壤重金属污染的影响--以开封市为例[J].土壤学报,2011,48(4):743-750
[32]刘琼,佴伶俐,欧名豪,等.基于脱钩情景的中国建设用地总量管控目标分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(2):80-85
[33]黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化CA模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟[J].地理学报,1999,54(4):289-298
[34]高金龙,陈江龙,袁丰,等.南京市区建设用地扩张模式、功能演化与机理[J].地理研究,2014,33(10):1892-1907
[35]王伟武,金建伟,肖作鹏,等.近18年来杭州城市用地扩展特征及其驱动机制[J].地理研究,2009,28(3):685-695
[36]赵婷婷,张凤荣,安萍莉,等.北京市顺义区建设用地扩展的空间分异[J].资源科学,2008,30(10):1517-1524
[37]黎夏.地理模拟系统:元胞自动机与多智能体[M].北京:科学出版社,2007
[38]黎夏.智能式GIS与空间优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2010
[39]邬建国.景观生态学:格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2007
[40]黄木易,岳文泽,等.杭州市区土地利用景观格局演变及驱动力分析[J].土壤,2012,44(2):326-331
[41]邬建国.景观生态学--概念与理论[J].生态学杂志,2000,19(1):42-52
[42]陈利顶,刘洋,吕一河,等.景观生态学中的格局分析:现状、困境与未来[J].生态学报,2008,28(11):5521-5531
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