制造业服务化、高端化升级与碳减排
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摘要
文章从GVC的视角,借鉴KPWW贸易增加值(TIVA)的计算方法,利用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)的数据,测度制造业出口服务化水平,并且根据专业化程度和知识密集度等特点将服务投入细分为五类高端化投入,研究2000~2014年中国制造业服务化和高端化发展趋势,构建制造业服务化的碳排放效应理论模型,检验服务化升级对行业碳排放的影响,并且探究服务投入的高端化和路径异质化的碳排放效应是否存在差异。主要结论为:(1)制造业服务化促进产业结构升级,可显著降低行业碳排放水平;(2)五类制造业高端化投入的减排效应差异明显,研发、通信等技术类服务投入率有待提高;(3)服务投入路径异质化的碳排放效应存在差异,下游价值链服务化的减排效果显著。
From the perspective of GVC,this paper measures the servitization level of manufacturing industry based on the data of WIOD by applying KPWW in the calculation of TIVA. According to the degree of specialization and knowledge intensity,service inputs are divided into five high-end types. This paper studies the servitization and high-end development trend of China's manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,constructs a theoretical model of carbon emission effect in the servitization of manufacturing industry,tests the effect of servitization upgrading of manufacturing industry on carbon emissions empirically,and explores whether there is any difference in the impacts of various high-end and path-differentiated service inputs on carbon emissions. The main conclusions are:( 1) the servitization of manufacturing industry promotes the industrial upgrading which will reduce carbon emissions effectively;( 2) the effects of the five types of high-end inputs are different significantly and the technical service inputs,such as R&D and communication,needs to be improved;( 3) there are differences existing in the impact of path heterogeneity of service inputs on emission reduction,which is more remarkable in the downstream GVC.
From the perspective of GVC,this paper measures the servitization level of manufacturing industry based on the data of WIOD by applying KPWW in the calculation of TIVA. According to the degree of specialization and knowledge intensity,service inputs are divided into five high-end types. This paper studies the servitization and high-end development trend of China's manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014,constructs a theoretical model of carbon emission effect in the servitization of manufacturing industry,tests the effect of servitization upgrading of manufacturing industry on carbon emissions empirically,and explores whether there is any difference in the impacts of various high-end and path-differentiated service inputs on carbon emissions. The main conclusions are:( 1) the servitization of manufacturing industry promotes the industrial upgrading which will reduce carbon emissions effectively;( 2) the effects of the five types of high-end inputs are different significantly and the technical service inputs,such as R&D and communication,needs to be improved;( 3) there are differences existing in the impact of path heterogeneity of service inputs on emission reduction,which is more remarkable in the downstream GVC.
引文
陈丽娴,沈鸿.2017.制造业服务化如何影响企业绩效和要素结构——基于上市公司数据的PSM-DID实证分析[J].经济学动态(05):64-77.
陈诗一.2011.中国工业分行业统计数据估算:1980-2008[J].经济学(季刊)(3):736-743.
陈艳莹,周娟.2009.制造业服务化的生态效益:国外研究进展述评[J].工业技术经济,28(01):69-72.
戴翔.2016.中国制造业出口内涵服务价值演进及因素决定[J].经济研究(09):44-57.
方鸣.2015.投入服务化对工业行业环境技术效率的影响研究.江淮论坛(06):68-75.
黄群慧,霍景东.2015.《中国制造2025》战略下制造业服务化的发展思路[J].中国工业评论(11):46-55.
黄群慧,霍景东.2014.全球制造业服务化水平及其影响因素——基于国际投入产出数据的实证分析[J].经济管理,36(01):1-11.
简兆权,伍卓深.2011.制造业服务化的路径选择研究——基于微笑曲线理论的观点[J].科学学与科学技术管理,32(12):137-143.
刘斌,王乃嘉.2016.制造业投入服务化与企业出口的二元边际——基于中国微观企业数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济(09):59-74.
刘斌,魏倩,吕越,祝坤福.2016.制造业服务化与价值链升级[J].经济研究,51(03):151-162.
吕越,李小萌,吕云龙.2017.全球价值链中的制造业服务化与企业全要素生产率[J].南开经济研究(03):88-110.
吕云龙,吕越.2017.制造业出口服务化与国际竞争力——基于增加值贸易的视角[J].国际贸易问题(05):25-34.
马鹏,李文秀.2014.高端服务业集聚效应研究——基于产业控制力视角的分析[J].中国软科学(04):169-179.
彭星,李斌.2013.全球价值链视角下中国嵌入制造环节的经济碳排放效应研究[J].财贸研究,24(06):18-26.
饶畅.2013.制造业投入服务化对碳生产率影响的理论建模和实证检验——以珠三角为例[J].经济与管理,27(06):81-86.
许和连,成丽红,孙天阳.2017.制造业投入服务化对企业出口国内增加值的提升效应——基于中国制造业微观企业的经验研究[J].中国工业经济(10):62-80.
徐振鑫,莫长炜,陈其林.2016.制造业服务化:我国制造业升级的一个现实性选择[J].经济学家(09):59-67.
赵霞.2017.生产性服务投入、垂直专业化与装备制造业生产率[J].产业经济研究(02):14-26.
Antweiler,W,Copeland,B.R.,Taylor,M.S.2001.Is free trade good for the environment[J].American Economic Review,91(4):877-908.
Baldwin,R.,R.Forslid and T.Ito.2015.Unveiling the evolving sources of value added in exports[J].Joint Research Program Series,No.161,Institute of Developing Economies,Japan External Trade Organization,Chiba,Japan.
Fishbein,B.,Mc Garry,L.S.,and Dillon,P.S.2000.Leasing:A Step Toward Producer Responsibility[M].NY:INFORM.
Francois,J.F.,and J.Woerz.2008.Producer Services,Manufacturing Linkages and Trade[J].Journal of Industry Competition and Trade,8:199-299.
Kee,H.L.,and H.Tang.2016.Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China[J].The American Economic Review,106(6):1402-1436.
Lanz,R.,A.Maurer.2015.Services and Global Value Chains:Servicification of Manufacturing and Services Networks[J].Journal of International Commerce,Economics and Policy,06(03):1550014(1-18).
Lodefalk,M.2014.The Role of Services for Manufacturing Firm Exports[J].Review of World Ecomnomics,150(1):59-82.
Low,P.2013.The role of services in global value chains.In DK Elms and P Low(eds.),Global Value Chains in a Changing World,Geneva:World Trade Organization.
Miroudot,S.and C.Cadestin.2017.Services in Global Value Chains:From Inputs to Value-Creating Activities[J].OECD Trade Policy Papers,No.197,OECD Publishing,Paris.
Neely,A.2008.Exploring the Financial Consequences of the Servitization of Manufacturing[J].Operation Management Research,12:103-118.
Neely,A.2007.The Servitizationof Manufacturing:An Anlsysisof Global Trends[R].14th European Operations Management Association.
Rothenberg,S.2007.Sustainability through Servicizing[J].MIT Sloan Management Review,48(2):83-91.
United Nations.2013.United Nations Central Product Classification,version 2,Sections 5-9.
Vandermerwe,S.,J.Rada.1988.Servitization of business:Adding value by adding services[J].European Management Journal,06(04):314-324.
(1)后文经过实证检验发现制造业服务化对碳排放水平并不存在非线性影响,因此后期检验不再考虑Serit2。
(2)专业、科学和技术类、金融和保险类、信息和通信类、批发和零售类、运输和仓储类,2000-2014年这五类服务投入增加值占制造业所有投入的服务所创造的增加值的比重均超过80%。
(3)专业、科学和技术类、金融和保险类、信息和通信类、批发和零售类、运输和仓储类服务行业服务行业投入创造的增加值占制造业总增加值的比重(分别用m、k、j、g、h表示),各制造业高端化率变化趋势见图1。
(4)在查找数据的过程中发现1998年之后《中国工业统计年鉴》公布的行业数据是规模以上企业工业指标,为防止实证检验时与实际情况出现偏差,相关指标如规模以上企业工业总产值、固定资产、全部就业人数等数据均不能直接使用。本文参考陈诗一(2011)的做法进行口径调查,将相关指标调整到全部企业统一口径。
(5)将农副食品加工工业和食品制造业数据合并处理为食品加工制造业,将废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业和工艺品及其他制造业合并处理为其他制造业。
(6)在考虑了个体效应和时间效应之后的分析中,加入(Ln S)2验证环境库兹涅茨曲线曲线EKC是否存在,结果发现制造业经济规模的扩大会带来碳排放的加剧,并且在本文选取的时间范围内,制造业经济规模扩张与碳排放水平之间并不存在“倒U型”的关系。
陈诗一.2011.中国工业分行业统计数据估算:1980-2008[J].经济学(季刊)(3):736-743.
陈艳莹,周娟.2009.制造业服务化的生态效益:国外研究进展述评[J].工业技术经济,28(01):69-72.
戴翔.2016.中国制造业出口内涵服务价值演进及因素决定[J].经济研究(09):44-57.
方鸣.2015.投入服务化对工业行业环境技术效率的影响研究.江淮论坛(06):68-75.
黄群慧,霍景东.2015.《中国制造2025》战略下制造业服务化的发展思路[J].中国工业评论(11):46-55.
黄群慧,霍景东.2014.全球制造业服务化水平及其影响因素——基于国际投入产出数据的实证分析[J].经济管理,36(01):1-11.
简兆权,伍卓深.2011.制造业服务化的路径选择研究——基于微笑曲线理论的观点[J].科学学与科学技术管理,32(12):137-143.
刘斌,王乃嘉.2016.制造业投入服务化与企业出口的二元边际——基于中国微观企业数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济(09):59-74.
刘斌,魏倩,吕越,祝坤福.2016.制造业服务化与价值链升级[J].经济研究,51(03):151-162.
吕越,李小萌,吕云龙.2017.全球价值链中的制造业服务化与企业全要素生产率[J].南开经济研究(03):88-110.
吕云龙,吕越.2017.制造业出口服务化与国际竞争力——基于增加值贸易的视角[J].国际贸易问题(05):25-34.
马鹏,李文秀.2014.高端服务业集聚效应研究——基于产业控制力视角的分析[J].中国软科学(04):169-179.
彭星,李斌.2013.全球价值链视角下中国嵌入制造环节的经济碳排放效应研究[J].财贸研究,24(06):18-26.
饶畅.2013.制造业投入服务化对碳生产率影响的理论建模和实证检验——以珠三角为例[J].经济与管理,27(06):81-86.
许和连,成丽红,孙天阳.2017.制造业投入服务化对企业出口国内增加值的提升效应——基于中国制造业微观企业的经验研究[J].中国工业经济(10):62-80.
徐振鑫,莫长炜,陈其林.2016.制造业服务化:我国制造业升级的一个现实性选择[J].经济学家(09):59-67.
赵霞.2017.生产性服务投入、垂直专业化与装备制造业生产率[J].产业经济研究(02):14-26.
Antweiler,W,Copeland,B.R.,Taylor,M.S.2001.Is free trade good for the environment[J].American Economic Review,91(4):877-908.
Baldwin,R.,R.Forslid and T.Ito.2015.Unveiling the evolving sources of value added in exports[J].Joint Research Program Series,No.161,Institute of Developing Economies,Japan External Trade Organization,Chiba,Japan.
Fishbein,B.,Mc Garry,L.S.,and Dillon,P.S.2000.Leasing:A Step Toward Producer Responsibility[M].NY:INFORM.
Francois,J.F.,and J.Woerz.2008.Producer Services,Manufacturing Linkages and Trade[J].Journal of Industry Competition and Trade,8:199-299.
Kee,H.L.,and H.Tang.2016.Domestic Value Added in Exports:Theory and Firm Evidence from China[J].The American Economic Review,106(6):1402-1436.
Lanz,R.,A.Maurer.2015.Services and Global Value Chains:Servicification of Manufacturing and Services Networks[J].Journal of International Commerce,Economics and Policy,06(03):1550014(1-18).
Lodefalk,M.2014.The Role of Services for Manufacturing Firm Exports[J].Review of World Ecomnomics,150(1):59-82.
Low,P.2013.The role of services in global value chains.In DK Elms and P Low(eds.),Global Value Chains in a Changing World,Geneva:World Trade Organization.
Miroudot,S.and C.Cadestin.2017.Services in Global Value Chains:From Inputs to Value-Creating Activities[J].OECD Trade Policy Papers,No.197,OECD Publishing,Paris.
Neely,A.2008.Exploring the Financial Consequences of the Servitization of Manufacturing[J].Operation Management Research,12:103-118.
Neely,A.2007.The Servitizationof Manufacturing:An Anlsysisof Global Trends[R].14th European Operations Management Association.
Rothenberg,S.2007.Sustainability through Servicizing[J].MIT Sloan Management Review,48(2):83-91.
United Nations.2013.United Nations Central Product Classification,version 2,Sections 5-9.
Vandermerwe,S.,J.Rada.1988.Servitization of business:Adding value by adding services[J].European Management Journal,06(04):314-324.
(1)后文经过实证检验发现制造业服务化对碳排放水平并不存在非线性影响,因此后期检验不再考虑Serit2。
(2)专业、科学和技术类、金融和保险类、信息和通信类、批发和零售类、运输和仓储类,2000-2014年这五类服务投入增加值占制造业所有投入的服务所创造的增加值的比重均超过80%。
(3)专业、科学和技术类、金融和保险类、信息和通信类、批发和零售类、运输和仓储类服务行业服务行业投入创造的增加值占制造业总增加值的比重(分别用m、k、j、g、h表示),各制造业高端化率变化趋势见图1。
(4)在查找数据的过程中发现1998年之后《中国工业统计年鉴》公布的行业数据是规模以上企业工业指标,为防止实证检验时与实际情况出现偏差,相关指标如规模以上企业工业总产值、固定资产、全部就业人数等数据均不能直接使用。本文参考陈诗一(2011)的做法进行口径调查,将相关指标调整到全部企业统一口径。
(5)将农副食品加工工业和食品制造业数据合并处理为食品加工制造业,将废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业和工艺品及其他制造业合并处理为其他制造业。
(6)在考虑了个体效应和时间效应之后的分析中,加入(Ln S)2验证环境库兹涅茨曲线曲线EKC是否存在,结果发现制造业经济规模的扩大会带来碳排放的加剧,并且在本文选取的时间范围内,制造业经济规模扩张与碳排放水平之间并不存在“倒U型”的关系。