基于时间序列模型的济南趵突泉地下水位预测
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摘要
本文对2012年5月至2017年12月济南泉域趵突泉的地下水位波动规律进行了分析,并采用3种灰色时间序列模型,评价了保泉形势,通过模型的拟合效果检验可知:对于存在周期性波动趋势的地下水位观测值,GM(1,1)模型优势未能得到充分体现,ARIMA与Holt-Winters模型的预测结果较为接近,整体精度较高,表现出明显的预测优势。深入比选ARIMA与Holt-Winters模型的8项拟合优度指标,最终确定利用预测效果最优的Holt-Winters模型,从时间序列的角度对趵突泉地下水位进行分析,并预测2018—2019年趵突泉的年平均水位分别为27.734m和27.605m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.215 m,谷值将出现于2019年的6月份,数值仅为27.124m,逼近27.01m的泉水停喷线,为近7年来的最低水位。预测结果表明:现状降雨与开采条件下,2019年6月趵突泉将面临潜在的停喷的危机,保泉形势不容乐观。
In this paper,the fluctuating trend of groundwater table in Baotu Spring of Jinan spring catchment was analyzed from May 2012 to December 2017. Three gray time series models were developed to evaluate the current situation of spring protection. The results show that the GM(1,1) model is not really suitable for the groundwater table with obvious fluctuation. Meanwhile,Holt-Winters model is determined as optimal predictive model according to an in-depth comparison of eight goodness-of-fit indexes between ARIMA and Holt-Winters models. Accordingly,the groundwater table in Baotu Spring was predicted using HoltWinters model. This concluds that the annual average groundwater table in Baotu Spring respectively is27.734 m and 27.605 m in 2018 and 2019,and the peak value of spring water table is 28.215 m. The valley value of 27.124 m will appear in June 2019,which is close to the drying-up groundwater table(27.01 m)of Baotu Spring and is the lowest value in recent years. Overall,a potential crisis of stopping spraying in Baotu Spring will occurr in June 2019. The situation of spring protection is not optimistic under the current rainfall and exploitation conditions.
In this paper,the fluctuating trend of groundwater table in Baotu Spring of Jinan spring catchment was analyzed from May 2012 to December 2017. Three gray time series models were developed to evaluate the current situation of spring protection. The results show that the GM(1,1) model is not really suitable for the groundwater table with obvious fluctuation. Meanwhile,Holt-Winters model is determined as optimal predictive model according to an in-depth comparison of eight goodness-of-fit indexes between ARIMA and Holt-Winters models. Accordingly,the groundwater table in Baotu Spring was predicted using HoltWinters model. This concluds that the annual average groundwater table in Baotu Spring respectively is27.734 m and 27.605 m in 2018 and 2019,and the peak value of spring water table is 28.215 m. The valley value of 27.124 m will appear in June 2019,which is close to the drying-up groundwater table(27.01 m)of Baotu Spring and is the lowest value in recent years. Overall,a potential crisis of stopping spraying in Baotu Spring will occurr in June 2019. The situation of spring protection is not optimistic under the current rainfall and exploitation conditions.
引文
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[3]王庆兵,段秀铭,高赞东,等.济南岩溶泉域地下水可持续开采方案分析[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(3):1-5.
[4]高宗军,徐军祥,王世臣,等.济南岩溶水微量元素分布特征及其水文地质意义[J].地学前缘,2014,21(4):135-146.
[5]邢立亭,李常锁,周娟,等.济南泉域岩溶径流通道特征[J].科学技术与工程,2017,17(17):57-65.
[6]张展羽,梁振华,冯宝平,等.基于主成分-时间序列模型的地下水位预测[J].水科学进展,2017,28(3):415-420.
[7]齐欢,秦品瑞,赵振华,等.基于GMS的玉符河人工补源影响研究[J].山东国土资源,2017(11):55-61.
[8]刘思妤,倪红珍.地下水保护的生态补偿机制研究进展[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2016,14(5):367-373.
[9]程涛,徐宗学,宋苏林.济南市海绵城市建设兴隆示范区降雨径流模拟[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(6):1-11.
[10] KANG F,JIN M,QIN P. Sustainable yield of a karst aquifer system:a case study of Jinan springs in northern China[J]. Hydrogeology Journal,2011,19(4):851-863.
[11] QIAN J,ZHAN H,WU Y,et al. Fractured-karst spring-flow protections:a case study in Jinan,China[J]. Hydrogeology Journal,2006,14(7):1192-1205.
[12]刘思峰,邓聚龙. GM(1,1)模型的适用范围[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,20(5):121-124.
[13] WU L,GAO X,XIAO Y,et al. Using grey Holt-Winters model to predict the air quality index for cities in China[J]. Natural Hazards,2017,88(2):1-10.
[14]王宇,卢文喜,卞建民,等.三种地下水位动态预测模型在吉林西部的应用与对比[J].吉林大学学报(地),2015,45(3):886-891.
[15]祁晓凡,杨丽芝,韩晔,等.济南泉域地下水位动态及其对降水响应的交叉小波分析[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(9):969-978.
[16]张郑贤,王维平,相华,等.基于水位波动关联度的济南西部与济南泉群地下水关系研究[J].水文,2018,38(6):31-36.
[17]于翠翠.济南明水泉域岩溶地下水数值模拟及泉水水位动态预测[J].中国岩溶,2017,36(4):533-540.