“消费驱动”下消费、投资与出口三大需求协调率分析
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摘要
十九大明确提出"经济增长要向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变",设定了消费、投资和出口协调拉动的发展目标。在消费驱动型发展模式基本确立的"十三五"开局之际,借鉴系统协调率模型,扩展建立了三大需求协调率模型,测算出2000—2017年中国三大需求的协调率为0. 647 9。同时,利用经验数据和Almon多项式分布滞后模型对我国三大需求协调率与经济增长率之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:三大需求协调率对经济增长率即期影响并不显著,但长期存在显著的积极影响,且具有为期3年的明显滞后效应,之后作用力度逐年递减。长期坚持"消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长"方针,对收入分配、社会保障等相关政策进行适当微调是促进经济发展方式转变,实现经济自主协调、持续稳定增长的必然选择。
The Nineteenth congress explicitly put forward the notion that"economic growth mainly relies on the coordination between consumption,investment and exports"and sets the goal that consumption,investment and exports will be coordinated to boost economic development. In the start of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,we based on a system coordination model,extensively establish a demand coordination rate model and measure the that 2000—2017 average demand coordination rate is 0. 647 9,as well as using empirical data and the Almon polynomial distribution lag model to investigate the relationship between the demand coordination rate and economic growth. The empirical results show that the demand coordination rate has a positive effect on economic growth,but the immediate impact is not significant,while the lag effect is obvious,the time limit is three years and the strength is decreasing. In addition,in the long run,the demand coordination rate also has a significant positive effect on economic growth. Therefore,during the period of the new normal,our country should still adhere to the "consumption,investment and exports coordinately developed to heave economy growth"policies and regulations,appropriately fine-tuning the income distribution,social security and other related policies,promote the economic growth mode transformation and ultimately achieve sustained,stable and high-speed growth.
The Nineteenth congress explicitly put forward the notion that"economic growth mainly relies on the coordination between consumption,investment and exports"and sets the goal that consumption,investment and exports will be coordinated to boost economic development. In the start of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,we based on a system coordination model,extensively establish a demand coordination rate model and measure the that 2000—2017 average demand coordination rate is 0. 647 9,as well as using empirical data and the Almon polynomial distribution lag model to investigate the relationship between the demand coordination rate and economic growth. The empirical results show that the demand coordination rate has a positive effect on economic growth,but the immediate impact is not significant,while the lag effect is obvious,the time limit is three years and the strength is decreasing. In addition,in the long run,the demand coordination rate also has a significant positive effect on economic growth. Therefore,during the period of the new normal,our country should still adhere to the "consumption,investment and exports coordinately developed to heave economy growth"policies and regulations,appropriately fine-tuning the income distribution,social security and other related policies,promote the economic growth mode transformation and ultimately achieve sustained,stable and high-speed growth.
引文
[1]任保平,李禹墨.新时代我国高质量发展评判体系的构建及其转型路径[J].陕西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018,47(3).
[2]JANESH SAMI. Multivariate Cointegration and Causality between Exports,Electricity Consumption and Real Income per Capita:Recent Evidence from Japan[J]. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy,2011,1(3).
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[4]刘文涛.经济驱动力与GDP增长关系的实证研究———基于经济动力结构优化视角[J].财经理论与实践,2012,33(6).
[5]崔俊富,苗建军,陈金伟.基于随机森林方法的中国经济增长动力研究[J].经济与管理研究,2015,36(3).
[6]李玉华.转变经济发展方式关键在于协调拉动中国经济的“三驾马车”[J].中共石家庄市委党校学报,2010(8).
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[9]纪明,刘志彪.中国需求结构演进对经济增长及经济波动的影响[J].经济科学,2014(1).
[10]史晋川,刘青.劳资分配、总需求结构与中国经济增长[J].浙江社会科学,2017(9).
[11]汤铃.基于距离协调度模型的系统协调发展定量评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4).
[12]BRYSON N,MOBOLURIN A. An Approach to Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Solving Multiple Criteria Decision Making Problems[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1994,76(3).
[13]中华人民共和国国家统计局.统计局:前三季度国民经济运行稳中有进、稳中提质[EB/OL].国家统计局网,2016-10-19. http:∥www. gov. cn/shuju/2016-10/19/content_5121336. htm.
[14]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[15]李建国,李智慧.区域经济协调发展与城乡一体化的中国探索[J].当代经济研究,2017(4).
(1)本文中“三大需求”指消费、投资、出口三个需求,为叙述方便、行文简洁,简称“三大需求”。
[2]JANESH SAMI. Multivariate Cointegration and Causality between Exports,Electricity Consumption and Real Income per Capita:Recent Evidence from Japan[J]. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy,2011,1(3).
[3]刘瑞翔,安同良.中国经济增长的动力来源与转换展望———基于最终需求角度的分析[J].经济研究,2011(7).
[4]刘文涛.经济驱动力与GDP增长关系的实证研究———基于经济动力结构优化视角[J].财经理论与实践,2012,33(6).
[5]崔俊富,苗建军,陈金伟.基于随机森林方法的中国经济增长动力研究[J].经济与管理研究,2015,36(3).
[6]李玉华.转变经济发展方式关键在于协调拉动中国经济的“三驾马车”[J].中共石家庄市委党校学报,2010(8).
[7]蒲晓晔,赵守国.经济增长动力变迁的国际比较及对中国的启示[J].经济问题,2011(1).
[8]张慧芳,朱雅玲.供需双侧结构性改革与中国经济中高速增长[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016,37(5).
[9]纪明,刘志彪.中国需求结构演进对经济增长及经济波动的影响[J].经济科学,2014(1).
[10]史晋川,刘青.劳资分配、总需求结构与中国经济增长[J].浙江社会科学,2017(9).
[11]汤铃.基于距离协调度模型的系统协调发展定量评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4).
[12]BRYSON N,MOBOLURIN A. An Approach to Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Solving Multiple Criteria Decision Making Problems[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1994,76(3).
[13]中华人民共和国国家统计局.统计局:前三季度国民经济运行稳中有进、稳中提质[EB/OL].国家统计局网,2016-10-19. http:∥www. gov. cn/shuju/2016-10/19/content_5121336. htm.
[14]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009.
[15]李建国,李智慧.区域经济协调发展与城乡一体化的中国探索[J].当代经济研究,2017(4).
(1)本文中“三大需求”指消费、投资、出口三个需求,为叙述方便、行文简洁,简称“三大需求”。