零膨胀模型在散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌定量暴露评估中的应用
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摘要
针对散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌(简称单增李斯特菌)监测数据普遍存在的零膨胀和过度离散现象,探讨不同左删失数据处理方法对定量暴露评估的影响。2017年2—12月从上海市某区各大型超市、农贸市场及餐饮环节采集254份散装熟肉制品进行单增李斯特菌定量检测。将检测结果与标准统计分布及其零膨胀模型相结合,利用R 2.0软件进行数据拟合,根据最优分布结果,确定零售阶段散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的暴露情况。对于单增李斯特菌左删失数据的处理,优先构建零膨胀对数正态分布或零膨胀泊松对数正态分布。零膨胀模型的参数估计结果表明,散装熟肉制品中单增李斯特菌的阳性检出率为2%。本研究结果可为单增李斯特菌左删失数据的处理提供理论依据,并为完整的风险评估体系提供参考。
In many cases, measured contamination levels of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat are characterized by zero-inflation and over-dispersion features. The effect of different left-censored data processing methods on quantitative exposure assessment was discussed in this work. The contamination level of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products was determined using 254 samples collected from supermarkets, farmers' markets and catering links in a certain district of Shanghai from February to December 2017. As an illustration, traditional statistical distributions and their zero-inflated models were used to assess the concentration of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products. The models were compared and validated for their performance using R 2.0 software. The L. monocytogenes concentration data consisting of a considerable number of left-censored data could be appropriately represented by zero-inflated lognormal distribution or zero-inflated Poisson lognormal distribution. The parameter estimates of the zero-inflated models indicated that the prevalence of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products was 2%. This work provides a theoretical basis for the statistical analysis of left-censored L. monocytogenes concentration data and serves as the essential starting point for a complete risk assessment framework.
In many cases, measured contamination levels of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat are characterized by zero-inflation and over-dispersion features. The effect of different left-censored data processing methods on quantitative exposure assessment was discussed in this work. The contamination level of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products was determined using 254 samples collected from supermarkets, farmers' markets and catering links in a certain district of Shanghai from February to December 2017. As an illustration, traditional statistical distributions and their zero-inflated models were used to assess the concentration of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products. The models were compared and validated for their performance using R 2.0 software. The L. monocytogenes concentration data consisting of a considerable number of left-censored data could be appropriately represented by zero-inflated lognormal distribution or zero-inflated Poisson lognormal distribution. The parameter estimates of the zero-inflated models indicated that the prevalence of L. monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat products was 2%. This work provides a theoretical basis for the statistical analysis of left-censored L. monocytogenes concentration data and serves as the essential starting point for a complete risk assessment framework.
引文
[1]张丽萍,高涛,张克俭,等.食品中单增李斯特菌检验方法的应用研究[J].中国卫生检验杂志,2014,24(3):366-367;371.
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[5]沈莹.单核细胞增生性李斯特菌在食品安全中的研究近况[J].中国热带医学,2008,8(3):484-487.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-9727.2008.03.067.
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[7]赵静,孙海娟,冯叙桥.食品中食源性致病菌污染状况及其监测技术研究进展[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2013,4(5):1353-1360.
[8]包丽娟.国内外微生物源食源性疾病监测及其防控进展[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2016,7(7):2990-2994.
[9]宋筱瑜,裴晓燕,徐海滨,等.我国零售食品中单增李斯特菌污染的健康风险分级研究[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2015,27(4):447-450.
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[12]BUCHANAN R L,GORRIS L G M,HAYMAN M M,et al.An update on outbreaks,virulence,dose-response,ecology,and risk assessments[J].Food Control,2017,75:1-13.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2018.01.004.
[13]KOYAMA K,HOKUNAN H,HASEGAWA M,et al.Do bacterial cell numbers follow a theoretical Poisson distribution?comparison of experimentally obtained numbers of single cells with random number generation via computer simulation[J].Food Microbiology,2016,60:49-53.DOI:10.1016/j.fm.2016.05.019.
[14]FUJIKAWA H.Estimation of microbial concentration in food products from qualitative,microbiological test data with the MPN technique[J].Shokuhinseigaku Zasshi,2017,58(4):173-179.DOI:10.3358/shokueishi.58.173.
[15]SANTOS-FERNANDEZ E,GOVINDARAJU K,JONES G.Quantitybased microbiological sampling plans and quality after inspection[J].Food Control,2016,63:83-92.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont,2015.11.028.
[16]KATO T,KOBAYASHI A,ITO T,et al.Estimation of concentration ratio of indicator to pathogen-related gene in environmental water based on left-censored data[J].Journal of Water&Health,2016,14(1):14-25.DOI:10.2166/wh.2015.029.
[17]BUSSCHAERT P,GEERAERD A H,UYTTENDAELE M,et al.Estimating distributions out of qualitative and(semi)quantitative microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2010,138(3):260-269.DOI:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2010.01.025.
[18]田静,樊永祥,刘秀梅.散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估[J].中华预防医学杂志,2011,45(6):537-542.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2011.06.014.
[19]王凯,叶可萍,白红武,等.冷却猪肉中单增李斯特菌的定量暴露评估[J].食品科学,2016,37(11):79-83.DOI:10.7506/spkx1002-6630-201611014.
[20]董庆利,郑丽敏.即食凉拌菜中单增李斯特菌的定量暴露评估[J].生物加工过程,2013,11(5):55-60.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3678.2013.05.011.
[21]陈异,戴琳,寇鹏.零膨胀泊松回归模型及其在交通事故中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2013,23(10):163-166.
[22]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.食品安全国家标准食品微生物学检验单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌检验:GB 4789.30-2016[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017:2-16.
[23]GONZALES-BARRON U,KERR M,SHERIDAN J J,et al.Count data distributions and their zero-modified equivalents as a framework for modelling microbial data with a relatively high occurrence of zero counts[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2010,136(3):268-277.DOI:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.10.016.
[24]REICH F,VALERO A,SCHILL F,et al.Characterisation of Campylobacter contamination in broilers and assessment of microbiological criteria for the pathogen in broiler slaughterhouses[J].Food Control,2018,87:60-69.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2017.12.013.
[25]董庆利,宋筱瑜,丁甜,等.冷却猪肉阴性样品中气单胞菌概率分布的影响与优选[J].生物加工过程,2016,14(2):64-69.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3678.2016.02.012.
[26]GONZALES-BARRON U,BUTLER F.A comparison between the discrete Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal distributions to characterise microbial counts in foods[J].Food Control,2011,22(8):1279-1286.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2011.01.029.
[27]GONZALES-BARRON U,CADAVEZ V,BUTLER F.Conducting inferential statistics for low microbial counts in foods using the Poisson-gamma regression[J].Food Control,2014,37(1):385-394.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2013.09.032.
[28]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.食品安全国家标准食品中致病菌限量:GB 29921-2013[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2014:2-3.
[29]JONGENBURGER I,BASSETT J,JACKSON T,et al.Impact of microbial distributions on food safety I.factors influencing microbial distributions and modelling aspects[J].Food Control,2012,26(2):601-609.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2012.02.004.
[30]SUN W,LIU Y,WANG X,et al.Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat from production to consumption in China:a bayesian approach[J/OL].[2018-09-03].https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jsfa.9506.DOI:10.1002/jsfa.9506.
[31]MIAN R,PAUL S.Estimating for zero-inflated over-dispersion count data model with missing response[J].Statistics in Medicine,2016,35(30):5603-5624.DOI:10.1002/sim.7079.
[2]MEAD P S,SLUTSKER L,DIETZ V,et al.Food-related illness and death in the United States[J].Emerging Infectious Diseases,1999,5(5):607-625.DOI:10.3201/eid0506.990624.
[3]VáZQUEZ-BOLAND J A,KUHN M,BERCHE P,et al.Listeria pathogenesis and molecular virulence determinants[J].Clinical Microbiology Reviews,2001,14(3):584-640.DOI:10.1128/CMR.14.3.584-640.2001.
[4]DUSSURGET O.New insights into determinants of Listeria monocytogenes virulence[J].International Review of Cell&Molecular Biology,2008,270:1-38.DOI:10.1016/S1937-6448(08)01401-9.
[5]沈莹.单核细胞增生性李斯特菌在食品安全中的研究近况[J].中国热带医学,2008,8(3):484-487.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-9727.2008.03.067.
[6]WHO.Risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat food:interpretative summary[EB/OL].(2012-06-17)[2018-09-03].http://www.fao.org/ag/agn/agns/jemra_riskassessment_listeria_en.asp.
[7]赵静,孙海娟,冯叙桥.食品中食源性致病菌污染状况及其监测技术研究进展[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2013,4(5):1353-1360.
[8]包丽娟.国内外微生物源食源性疾病监测及其防控进展[J].食品安全质量检测学报,2016,7(7):2990-2994.
[9]宋筱瑜,裴晓燕,徐海滨,等.我国零售食品中单增李斯特菌污染的健康风险分级研究[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2015,27(4):447-450.
[10]WHO.Principles and guidelines for the conduct of microbiological risk assessment CAC/GL 30-1999[EB/OL].(2012-06-17)[2018-09-03].http://www.who.int/foodsafety/publications/micro/cac1999/en/.
[11]FORSYTHE S J.食品中微生物风险评估[M].石阶平,史贤明,岳田利,译.北京:中国农业大学出版社,2002:23-27.
[12]BUCHANAN R L,GORRIS L G M,HAYMAN M M,et al.An update on outbreaks,virulence,dose-response,ecology,and risk assessments[J].Food Control,2017,75:1-13.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2018.01.004.
[13]KOYAMA K,HOKUNAN H,HASEGAWA M,et al.Do bacterial cell numbers follow a theoretical Poisson distribution?comparison of experimentally obtained numbers of single cells with random number generation via computer simulation[J].Food Microbiology,2016,60:49-53.DOI:10.1016/j.fm.2016.05.019.
[14]FUJIKAWA H.Estimation of microbial concentration in food products from qualitative,microbiological test data with the MPN technique[J].Shokuhinseigaku Zasshi,2017,58(4):173-179.DOI:10.3358/shokueishi.58.173.
[15]SANTOS-FERNANDEZ E,GOVINDARAJU K,JONES G.Quantitybased microbiological sampling plans and quality after inspection[J].Food Control,2016,63:83-92.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont,2015.11.028.
[16]KATO T,KOBAYASHI A,ITO T,et al.Estimation of concentration ratio of indicator to pathogen-related gene in environmental water based on left-censored data[J].Journal of Water&Health,2016,14(1):14-25.DOI:10.2166/wh.2015.029.
[17]BUSSCHAERT P,GEERAERD A H,UYTTENDAELE M,et al.Estimating distributions out of qualitative and(semi)quantitative microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2010,138(3):260-269.DOI:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2010.01.025.
[18]田静,樊永祥,刘秀梅.散装熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的定量风险评估[J].中华预防医学杂志,2011,45(6):537-542.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2011.06.014.
[19]王凯,叶可萍,白红武,等.冷却猪肉中单增李斯特菌的定量暴露评估[J].食品科学,2016,37(11):79-83.DOI:10.7506/spkx1002-6630-201611014.
[20]董庆利,郑丽敏.即食凉拌菜中单增李斯特菌的定量暴露评估[J].生物加工过程,2013,11(5):55-60.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3678.2013.05.011.
[21]陈异,戴琳,寇鹏.零膨胀泊松回归模型及其在交通事故中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2013,23(10):163-166.
[22]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.食品安全国家标准食品微生物学检验单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌检验:GB 4789.30-2016[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2017:2-16.
[23]GONZALES-BARRON U,KERR M,SHERIDAN J J,et al.Count data distributions and their zero-modified equivalents as a framework for modelling microbial data with a relatively high occurrence of zero counts[J].International Journal of Food Microbiology,2010,136(3):268-277.DOI:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.10.016.
[24]REICH F,VALERO A,SCHILL F,et al.Characterisation of Campylobacter contamination in broilers and assessment of microbiological criteria for the pathogen in broiler slaughterhouses[J].Food Control,2018,87:60-69.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2017.12.013.
[25]董庆利,宋筱瑜,丁甜,等.冷却猪肉阴性样品中气单胞菌概率分布的影响与优选[J].生物加工过程,2016,14(2):64-69.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3678.2016.02.012.
[26]GONZALES-BARRON U,BUTLER F.A comparison between the discrete Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal distributions to characterise microbial counts in foods[J].Food Control,2011,22(8):1279-1286.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2011.01.029.
[27]GONZALES-BARRON U,CADAVEZ V,BUTLER F.Conducting inferential statistics for low microbial counts in foods using the Poisson-gamma regression[J].Food Control,2014,37(1):385-394.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2013.09.032.
[28]国家卫生和计划生育委员会.食品安全国家标准食品中致病菌限量:GB 29921-2013[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2014:2-3.
[29]JONGENBURGER I,BASSETT J,JACKSON T,et al.Impact of microbial distributions on food safety I.factors influencing microbial distributions and modelling aspects[J].Food Control,2012,26(2):601-609.DOI:10.1016/j.foodcont.2012.02.004.
[30]SUN W,LIU Y,WANG X,et al.Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in bulk cooked meat from production to consumption in China:a bayesian approach[J/OL].[2018-09-03].https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jsfa.9506.DOI:10.1002/jsfa.9506.
[31]MIAN R,PAUL S.Estimating for zero-inflated over-dispersion count data model with missing response[J].Statistics in Medicine,2016,35(30):5603-5624.DOI:10.1002/sim.7079.