航空旅客通达机场时间价值分析
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摘要
对航空旅客通达机场的时间价值进行准确度量是出行时间决策的重要依据。通过研究早到机场时间价值和晚到机场时间价值,揭示通达机场时间不确定性对航空旅客出行效用的影响。提出航空旅客期望到达时间影响分析模型,将其作为早到/晚到机场时间的参考点,采用混合Logit模型构建基于个人支付意愿的航空旅客通达机场时间价值计算方法。引入不同收入群体的边际收入纳税额,建立个人出行时间节省价值与社会投资收益之间的转换关系,构建航空旅客通达机场时间社会价值计算模型。结果表明,与通勤出行平均时间价值相比,基于个人支付意愿的航空旅客出行时间价值高约30元/h。航空旅客早到/晚到机场时间社会价值均高于基于个人支付意愿的早到/晚到机场时间价值。
Accurate measurement of value of time for air passengers accessing to airports is an important basis for decision making of travel time.The value of schedule early or late delay,and influences of uncertain accessing time to airports on travel utility of air passengers are studied.A model to analyze impacts of expected arrival time of air passengers is proposed,which is taken as a reference point of early or late arrival time.Mixed Logit models are used to estimate the value of accessing time for air passengers based on their willingness to pay.The marginal income tax of different income groups is introduced to develop conversion relationships between value of personal travel time saving and social investment benefit,so as to estimate the social value of accessing time.The results show that compared with average travel time value of commuting,the travel time value of air passengers based on personal willingness to pay is about 30 CNY/hour higher.In addition,the social value of schedule early or late delay is higher than that which based on individuals′willingness to pay.
Accurate measurement of value of time for air passengers accessing to airports is an important basis for decision making of travel time.The value of schedule early or late delay,and influences of uncertain accessing time to airports on travel utility of air passengers are studied.A model to analyze impacts of expected arrival time of air passengers is proposed,which is taken as a reference point of early or late arrival time.Mixed Logit models are used to estimate the value of accessing time for air passengers based on their willingness to pay.The marginal income tax of different income groups is introduced to develop conversion relationships between value of personal travel time saving and social investment benefit,so as to estimate the social value of accessing time.The results show that compared with average travel time value of commuting,the travel time value of air passengers based on personal willingness to pay is about 30 CNY/hour higher.In addition,the social value of schedule early or late delay is higher than that which based on individuals′willingness to pay.
引文
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[24]邵长桥,陈昳临.行程时间价值研究综述[J].北京:北京工业大学学报,2018,44(3):417-423.SHAO Changqiao,CHEN Yilin.Review of study on valuation of travel time[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2018,44(3):417-423.(in Chinese)
[25]SERGIO R,JARA-DíAZ,TRISTáN G,et al.Social valuation of road accident reductions using subjective perceptions[J].Journal of Transport Economics&Policy,2000,34(2):215-232.
[26]国家统计局.国家统计年鉴数据[Z/OL].(2018-9)[2018-11]http://www.stats.gov.cn/
[27]杨贵军,孟杰,王双喜.基于赤池信息准则的分类回归决策树剪枝算法[J].计算机应用,2014,34(2):147-150.YANG Guijun,MENG Jie,WANG Shuangxi.Classification and regression decision tree pruning algorithm based on akaike information criterion[J].Computer Application,2014,34(2):147-150.(in Chinese)
[28]国家税务总局.个税征收政策[R/OL].(2006-01)[2018-11].https://baike.baidu.com/
[2]BANKS J H.Effect of time-value distributions on transit headway optimizations[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,1991,25(2):161-186.
[3]MARK W.A review of british evidence on time and service quality valuations[J].Transportation Research part E,2001,37(2):107-128.
[4]NOLAND R B,POLAK J W.Travel time variability:A review of theoretical and empirical issues[J].Transportation Reviews,2002,22(1):39-54.
[5]KENNETH A S.Valuation of travel time[J].E-conomics of Transportation,2012,1(1):2-14.
[6]KOSTER P,KROES E,VERHOEF E.Travel time variability and airport accessibility[J].Transportation Research Part B,2010,45(10):1545-1559.
[7]SHEIKH A,GUIN A,GUENSLER R.Value of travel time savings:Evidence from I-85 express lanes in atlanta[J].Transportation Research Board,2014(2470):161-168.
[8]HENSHER D A.Measurement of the valuation of travel time saving[J].Journal of Transport Economics and Policy,2001,35(1):71-98.
[9]LAM T C,SMALL K A.The value of time and reliability:measurement from a value pricing experiment[J].Transportation Research E,2001,37(2/3):231-251.
[10]ASENSIO J,MATAS A.Commuters′valuation of travel time variability[J].Transportation Research E,2008,44(6):1074-1085.
[11]THOR S H.The influence of interview location on the value of travel time savings[J].Journal of Transport Literature,2011,39(6):1133-1145.
[12]MATTHIEU D L,KAY W A,ANDREAS F.Long distance mode choice and distributions of values of travel time savings in three european countries[J].European Transport,2013,53(1):1825-3997.
[13]周伟.关于高速公路建设发展管理中的若干问题研究[D].西安:长安大学,2000.ZHOU Wei.Study on some problems in development and management of expressway construction[D].Xi′an:Chang′an University,2000.(in Chinese)
[14]孙启鹏,朱磊,陈波.基于动态广义费用的客运通道交通方式选择Logit模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2013,13(4):15-22.ZHOU Qipeng,ZHU Lei,CHEN Bo.Logit model selection of passenger transport access based on dynamic generalized expenses[J].Transportation System Engineering and Information,2013,13(4):15-22.(in Chinese)
[15]齐彤岩,刘冬梅,刘莹.北京市居民出行时间成本研究[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(6):144-153.QI Tongyan,LIU Dongmei,LIU Ying.Study on the travel time cost of residents in beijing[J].Road Traffic Technology,2008,25(6):144-153.(in Chinese)
[16]何建中.城市地区私人小汽车出行成本构成理论及其量化评估方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2009.HE Jianzhong.Study on the cost theory of personal car trip in urban area and its quantitative evaluation method[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2009.(in Chinese)
[17]符韦苇,靳文舟,林福成.基于MNL模型的城市公共交通出行时间估计[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(2):148-152.FU Weiwei,JIN Wenzhou,LIN Fucheng.Urban public transport travel time estimation based on MNLmodel[J].Transporta System Engineering and Information,2010,10(2):148-152.(in Chinese)
[18]李田野,邵敏华.考虑舒适性的公交乘客出行时间价值对比[J].交通科学与工程,2011,27(3):82-86.LI Tianye,SHAO Minhua.Bus travel time considering the comfort of passenger value comparison[J].Traffic Science and Engineering,2011,27(3):82-86.(in Chinese)
[19]崔书田.行程时间可靠性对居民出行决策的影响研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2010.CUI Shutian.Research on the impact of travel time reliability on residents′trips and decisions[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University,2010.(in Chinese)
[20]陈娇娜.大数据驱动下的高速公路交通运行状态评价与分析[D].西安:长安大学,2016.CHEN Jiaona.Evaluation and analysis of expressway traffic status driven by data[D].Xi′an:Chang′an University,2016.(in Chinese)
[21]张文科.城市公共交通出行时间价值估算方法研究[D].河北:石家庄铁道大学,2016.ZHANG Wenke.Study on the method of estimating travel time of urban public transport[D].Hebei:Shijiazhuang Railway University,2016.(in Chinese)
[22]鲁光泉,喻饶,丁川.信息影响条件下考虑出行异质性的路径选择模型[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(1):62-70.LU Guangquan,YU Rao,DING Chuan.A route choice model of heterogeneous travelers considering influences of real time traffic information[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2017,35(1):62-70.(in Chinese)
[23]李博,赵鹏,宋文波.基于旅客时间价值的高速铁路差别定价[J].北京交通大学学报,2018,42(4):102-107.LI Bo,ZHAO Peng,SONG Wenbo.Differential pricing for high-speed railway based on the time value of passengers[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,2018,42(4):102-107.(in Chinese)
[24]邵长桥,陈昳临.行程时间价值研究综述[J].北京:北京工业大学学报,2018,44(3):417-423.SHAO Changqiao,CHEN Yilin.Review of study on valuation of travel time[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2018,44(3):417-423.(in Chinese)
[25]SERGIO R,JARA-DíAZ,TRISTáN G,et al.Social valuation of road accident reductions using subjective perceptions[J].Journal of Transport Economics&Policy,2000,34(2):215-232.
[26]国家统计局.国家统计年鉴数据[Z/OL].(2018-9)[2018-11]http://www.stats.gov.cn/
[27]杨贵军,孟杰,王双喜.基于赤池信息准则的分类回归决策树剪枝算法[J].计算机应用,2014,34(2):147-150.YANG Guijun,MENG Jie,WANG Shuangxi.Classification and regression decision tree pruning algorithm based on akaike information criterion[J].Computer Application,2014,34(2):147-150.(in Chinese)
[28]国家税务总局.个税征收政策[R/OL].(2006-01)[2018-11].https://baike.baidu.com/