高超声速滑翔飞行器长期轨迹预测问题探讨
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摘要
为给高超声速滑翔飞行器态势与威胁评估、反导拦截提供先验知识,探讨基于状态估计和意图推断的长期轨迹预测方法。对飞行器的控制特性进行阐述,分析了长期轨迹预测的可行性。针对飞行器机动不确定的问题,综合考虑飞行器当前状态和作战意图,阐述了长期轨迹预测的基本思想。最后,分别从预测模型构建、预测误差修正、制导规律辨识和意图信息推断四个方面讨论了飞行器长期轨迹预测的关键技术。
In order to provide a priori knowledge for situation and threat assessment and interception of hypersonic gliding reentry vehicle,a long-term trajectory prediction method based on state estimation and intention inference is discussed. Firstly,the vehicle's control characteristics are described to analyze the feasibility of long-term trajectory prediction. In view of target maneuver,the idea of long-term trajectory prediction considering the current state and combat intent is proposed. Then some key technologies of long-term trajectory prediction are discussed respectively from aspects of prediction modeling,prediction error correction,control law identification and intent information inference.
In order to provide a priori knowledge for situation and threat assessment and interception of hypersonic gliding reentry vehicle,a long-term trajectory prediction method based on state estimation and intention inference is discussed. Firstly,the vehicle's control characteristics are described to analyze the feasibility of long-term trajectory prediction. In view of target maneuver,the idea of long-term trajectory prediction considering the current state and combat intent is proposed. Then some key technologies of long-term trajectory prediction are discussed respectively from aspects of prediction modeling,prediction error correction,control law identification and intent information inference.
引文
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[2]潘亮,谢愈,彭双春,等.高超声速飞行器滑翔制导方法综述[J].国防科技大学学报,2017,39(3):15-22.
[3]张洪波,谢愈,陈克俊,等.非惯性运动目标弹道预报技术探讨[J].现代防御技术,2011,39(6):26-31.
[4]宋元,章新华,杨绍清,等.一种空中目标的不确定性威胁程度预测模型[J].火力与指挥控制,2009,34(12):93-96.
[5]易芳.高超声速飞行器分时拦截信息处理问题研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.
[6]秦雷,李君龙,周荻.临近空间非弹道式目标HTV-2跟踪滤波与预报问题[J].航天控制,2015,33(2):56-69.
[7]张洪波,黄景帅,李广华,等.典型控制规律滑翔飞行器的轨迹预测方法[J].现代防御技术,2017,45(4):112-118.
[8]王路,邢清华,毛艺帆.基于升阻比变化规律的再入高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹预测算法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(10):2335-2340.
[9]Li X R,Jilkov V P.Survey of maneuvering target tracking.Part II:ballistic target models[C].San Diego:Proceedings of SPIE Conference On Signal And Data Processing of Small Targets,2001.
[10]赵杨彬,贺正洪.一种GRNN神经网络的高超声速飞行器轨迹预测方法[J].计算机应用与软件,2015,32(7):239-243.
[11]翟岱亮,雷虎民,李炯,等.基于自适应IMM的高超声速飞行器轨迹预测[J].航空学报,2016,37(11):3466-3475.
[12]魏喜庆,王社阳,李瑞康.基于自适应IMM算法的高超声速飞行器轨迹预测[J].上海航天,2016,33(2):27-31.
[13]王孟军,朱庆和.对机动目标的滤波和预测研究(下)[J].火力与指挥控制,2011,36(1):74-77.
[14]潘晓刚,周海银.卫星轨道确定模型误差的深度加权核估计方法[J].天文学报,2009,50(1):85-97.
[15]杜润乐,刘佳琪,李志锋,等.基于制导律识别的远期飞行轨迹预测[C].第17届中国系统仿真技术及其应用学术年会论文集,2016:5.
[16]Groves G W,Blair W D,Hoffman S.Some concepts for trajectory prediction for ship self-defense[C].Seattle:Proceedings of the American Control Conference,1995.
[17]Zhao Y,Haissig C,Hoffman M J.Analysis of pilot intent in air traffic management[C].New York:IEEE Proceedings of the American Control Conference,1998(3):1789-1792.
[18]Rozel J,Risani D.Intent inference with path prediction[J].Journal of Guidance,Control and Dynamics,2006,29(2):225-236.
[19]Yepes J L,Hwang I,Rotea M.New algorithms for aircraft intent inference and trajectory prediction[J].Journal of Guidance Control and Dynamics,2007,30(2):370-382.