基于意图推断的高超声速滑翔目标贝叶斯轨迹预测
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摘要
为解决高超声速滑翔目标机动给探测防御造成的困难,研究基于意图推断的贝叶斯轨迹预测方法。首先对目标进行动力学建模,利用气动参数设计机动模式集。假定高超声速滑翔目标必定攻击某目标,结合飞行意图合理构造意图代价函数,借鉴贝叶斯理论迭代推导机动模式和运动状态递推公式。通过蒙特卡洛采样实现轨迹预测算法。仿真结果表明,算法能有效提高目标机动不确定条件下轨迹预测的精度,当多目标可能被打击时,通过对预测轨迹进行在线重新规划,降低目标误判给轨迹预测造成的不利影响。
In order to solve the problems of an interception caused by a maneuver of a hypersonic gliding reentry vehicle,a Bayesian trajectory prediction method based on the intent inference is studied. First,the dynamic model of the target is modeled and maneuvering mode set is designed by the aerodynamic parameters. Then it assumes that the hypersonic glide reentry vehicle will attack a certain target and a intention cost function is constructed according to the flight intention. The Bayesian theory is used to deduce the recursion formula of the maneuvering mode and motion state. Finally the trajectory prediction algorithm is realized through the Monte Carlo sampling. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the accuracy of the trajectory prediction under the uncertain maneuvering in the future.When multiple targets are likely to be hit,the negative impact of misjudgment to the target on trajectory prediction can be reduced by reprogramming the predicted trajectory online.
In order to solve the problems of an interception caused by a maneuver of a hypersonic gliding reentry vehicle,a Bayesian trajectory prediction method based on the intent inference is studied. First,the dynamic model of the target is modeled and maneuvering mode set is designed by the aerodynamic parameters. Then it assumes that the hypersonic glide reentry vehicle will attack a certain target and a intention cost function is constructed according to the flight intention. The Bayesian theory is used to deduce the recursion formula of the maneuvering mode and motion state. Finally the trajectory prediction algorithm is realized through the Monte Carlo sampling. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the accuracy of the trajectory prediction under the uncertain maneuvering in the future.When multiple targets are likely to be hit,the negative impact of misjudgment to the target on trajectory prediction can be reduced by reprogramming the predicted trajectory online.
引文
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[18] Box G E P,Jenkins G M. Time series analysis:forecasting and control,Fourth Edition[M]. Hoboken,NJ:Wiley Interscience,2008.
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[20] Yang T, Laugesen R S, Mehta P G, et al. Multivariable feedback particle filter[J]. Automatica,2016,71(1):10-23.
[21]张凯,熊家军.滑翔式高超声速目标可达区域计算方法[J].现代防御技术,2017,45(2):67-73.[Zhang Kai,Xiong Jia-jun. Algorithm of footprint area for gliding hypersonic target[J]. Modern Defense Technology,2017,45(2):67-73.]
[22] Phillips T H. A common aero vehicle(CAV)model,description,employment guide[R]. Schafer Corporation for AFRL and AF-SPC,2003.
[2] Ngo A,Doman D. Footprint determination for reusable launch vehicles experiencing control effector failures[C]. AIAA Guidance,Navigation, and Control Conference and Exhibit,Monterey,California,2002.
[3]张洪波,谢愈,陈克俊,等.非惯性运动目标弹道预报技术探讨[J].现代防御技术,2011,39(6):26-31.[Zhang Hongbo,Xie Yu,Chen Ke-jun,et al. Investigation on trajectory prediction of maneuverable target[J]. Modern Defense Technology,2011,39(6):26-31.]
[4]王路,邢清华,毛艺帆.基于升阻比变化规律的再入高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹预测算法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(10):2335-2340.[Wang Lu,Xing Qing-hua,Mao Yi-fan.Trajectory prediction of reentry hypersonic glide vehicle based on changing rule of lift-drag ratio[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(10):2335-2340.]
[5]翟岱亮,雷虎民,李炯,等.基于自适应IMM的高超声速飞行器轨迹预测[J].航空学报,2016,37(11):3466-3475.[Zhai Dai-liang, Lei Hu-ming, Li Jiong, et al. Trajectory predication of hypersonic vehicle based on the self-adaptive IMM[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2016,37(11):3466-3475.]
[6]秦雷,李君龙,周荻.临近空间非弹道式目标HTV-2跟踪滤波与预报问题[J].航天控制,2015,33(2):56-69.[Qin Lei,Li Jun-long,Zhou Di. The problems of tracking filter and prediction for nonballistic target HTV-2 in the near space[J].Aerospace Control,2015,33(2):56-69.]
[7]张洪波,黄景帅,李广华,等.典型控制规律滑翔飞行器的轨迹预测方法[J].现代防御技术,2017,45(4):112-118.[Zhang Hong-bo, Huang Jing-shuai, Li Guang-hua, et al.Trajectory prediction of glide vehicle based on typical control law[J]. Modern Defense Technology,2017,45(4):112-118.]
[8]杨皓云,贺正洪,钟明皓,等.高超声速飞行器侧向机动性能研究[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(30):9139-9143.[Yang Hao-yun, He Zheng-hong, Zhong Ming-hao, et al.Research on side maneuverability of hypersonic vehicle[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(30):9139-9143.]
[9] Best G,Fitch R. Bayesian intention inference for trajectory prediction with an unknown goal destination[C]. IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems,Hamburg,Germany,September 28-October 03,2015.
[10] Aoude G S,Luders B D,Joseph J M,et al. Probabilistically safe motion planning to avoid dynamic obstacles with uncertain motion patterns[J]. Autonomous Robots,2013,35(1):51-76.
[11] Krozel J,Risani D. Intent inference with path prediction[J].Journal of Guidance Control and Dynamics,2006,29(2):225-236.
[12] Yepes J L,Hwang I,Rotea M. New algorithms for aircraft intent inference and trajectory prediction[J]. Journal of Guidance Control and Dynamics,2007,30(2):370-382.
[13] Berg R. Estimation and prediction for maneuvering target trajectories[J]. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control,1983,28(3):294-304.
[14] Groves G W, Blair W D, Hoffman S. Some concepts for trajectory prediction for ship self-defense[C]. Proceeding of the American Control Conference,Seattle,USA,June 1995.
[15] Li X R,Jilkov V P. Survey of maneuvering target tracking. Part II:motion models of ballistic and space targets[J]. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems,2010,46(1):96-119.
[16]赵汉元.飞行器再入动力学与制导[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1997:74-81.
[17]朱辉玉,王刚,孙泉华,等.典型气动布局高超声速飞行的气动力数值评估[J].空气动力学学报,2012,30(3):365-372.[Zhu Hui-yu, Wang Gang, Sun Quan-hua, et al.Numerical evaluation on aerodynamic of typical hypersonic configurations for hypersonic flight[J]. Acta Aerodynamica Sinica,2012,30(3):365-372.]
[18] Box G E P,Jenkins G M. Time series analysis:forecasting and control,Fourth Edition[M]. Hoboken,NJ:Wiley Interscience,2008.
[19] Roy J,Paradis S,Allouche M. Threat evaluation for impact assessment in situation analysis systems[C]. Proceedings of SPIE-The International Society for Optical Engineering Orlando,Florida,July 2002.
[20] Yang T, Laugesen R S, Mehta P G, et al. Multivariable feedback particle filter[J]. Automatica,2016,71(1):10-23.
[21]张凯,熊家军.滑翔式高超声速目标可达区域计算方法[J].现代防御技术,2017,45(2):67-73.[Zhang Kai,Xiong Jia-jun. Algorithm of footprint area for gliding hypersonic target[J]. Modern Defense Technology,2017,45(2):67-73.]
[22] Phillips T H. A common aero vehicle(CAV)model,description,employment guide[R]. Schafer Corporation for AFRL and AF-SPC,2003.