基于水资源配置平衡的云南省水系连通格局效果分析
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摘要
为分析云南省水系连通工程供水安全保障效果,结合水资源精细化管理需求,在传统水资源三次平衡方法基础上,提出"三层四级"水系连通供需平衡分析方法。分析结果表明:经济社会发展引起用水增长和水资源空间极不均衡,到2030年,水资源供需矛盾更加尖锐,仅使用域内节水挖潜措施,全省一次供需平衡缺水率40.3%,二次供需平衡缺水率20.4%,供水安全受到严重威胁。通过水系连通工程的合理布局和供水,各级连通工程建设供需平衡分析表明,四大级别连通工程建设可以使得缺水量减小到11.56亿m~3,缺水率减小到5.3%,连通工程对于云南省供水安全保障具有重要作用。
In order to analyze the effect of water supply security of Yunnan water system interconnection project, a method of "three layers and four levels" water system interconnection supply and demand balance analysis was proposed on the basis of traditional three times of water resources balance method combined with the demand of fine water resources management. The analysis results show that with the development of economy and society, the growth of water use and the spatial imbalance of water resources are caused. By 2030, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more acute. The water shortage rate after the first time supply and demand balance is 40.3% and that after the second time supply and demand balance is 20.4% only by using water saving measures in the region. Water supply security is seriously threatened. However, through the rational distribution and water supply of water system connection projects, the analysis of supply and demand balance of all levels of connection projects shows that the four levels of connection projects can reduce the water shortage to 1.156 billion m~3 and the water shortage rate to 5.3%. Connection projects play an important role in ensuring water supply safety in Yunnan Province.
In order to analyze the effect of water supply security of Yunnan water system interconnection project, a method of "three layers and four levels" water system interconnection supply and demand balance analysis was proposed on the basis of traditional three times of water resources balance method combined with the demand of fine water resources management. The analysis results show that with the development of economy and society, the growth of water use and the spatial imbalance of water resources are caused. By 2030, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more acute. The water shortage rate after the first time supply and demand balance is 40.3% and that after the second time supply and demand balance is 20.4% only by using water saving measures in the region. Water supply security is seriously threatened. However, through the rational distribution and water supply of water system connection projects, the analysis of supply and demand balance of all levels of connection projects shows that the four levels of connection projects can reduce the water shortage to 1.156 billion m~3 and the water shortage rate to 5.3%. Connection projects play an important role in ensuring water supply safety in Yunnan Province.
引文
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[14] 王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(WANG Jianhua,ZHAI Zhengli,SANG Xuefeng,et al.Study on index system and judgment criterion of water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(in Chinese))
[15] 张欧阳,熊文,丁洪亮.长江流域水系连通特征及其影响因素分析[J].人民长江,2010,41(1):1-5.(ZHANG Ouyang,XIONG Wen,DING Hongliang.Drainage connectivity characteristics and influential factors of Yangtze River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(1):1-5.(in Chinese))
[16] 顾世祥,李俊德,谢波,等.云南省水资源合理配置研究[J].水利水电技术,2007(12):54-58.(GU Shixiang,LI Junde,XIE Bo,et al.Study on reasonable allocation of water resources in Yunnan Province [J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2007(12):54-58.(in Chinese))
[2] 夏军,朱一中.水资源安全的度量:水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3):262- 269.(XIA Jun,ZHU Yizhong.The measurement of water resources security:a study and challenge on water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2002,17(3):262- 269.(in Chinese))
[3] 王浩.我国水资源合理配置的现状和未来[J].水利水电技术,2006(2):7-14.(WAN Hao.Present situation and future of rational allocation of water resources in China[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2006(2):7-14.(in Chinese))
[4] 王浩.黄淮海流域水资源合理配置[M] .北京:科学出版社,2003.
[5] 胡昊,董增川,李梓嘉,等.平原区水系连通实践与思考[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(1):41-44.(HU Hao,DONG Zengchuan,LI Zijia,et al.Practice and consideration of river system connectivity in plain area [J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013(1):41-44.(in Chinese))
[6] 崔广柏,陈星,向龙,等.平原河网区水系连通改善水环境效果评估[J].水利学报,2017,48(12):1429-1437.(CUI Guangbo,CHEN Xing,XIANG Long,et al.Evaluation of water environment improvement by interconnected river network in plain area[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(12):1429-1437.(in Chinese))
[7] 周庆欣,袁丹凤,黄剑.东方市农业灌溉与城乡供水的水系连通工程应用浅析[J].人民珠江,2012,33(6):43-45.(ZHOU Qingxin,YUAN Danfeng,HUNAG Jian.A brief analysis on the application of water system connectivity engineering of agricultural irrigation and urban and rural water supply in Dongfang City [J].Pearl River,2012,33(6):43-45.(in Chinese))
[8] ZAHO Junkai,LI Lixian,ZHANG Aishe,et al.A new approach for the health assessment of river systems based on interconnected water system networks[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2017,8(3):251-257.
[9] 赵进勇,董哲仁,杨晓敏,等.基于图论边连通度的平原水网区水系连通性定量评价[J].水生态学杂志,2017,38(5):1-6.(ZHAO Jinyong,DONG Zheren,YANG Xiaomin,et al.Connectivity evaluation technology for plain river network regions based on edge connectivity from graph theory[J].Journal of Hydroecology,2017,38(5):1-6.(in Chinese))
[10] 胡尊乐,汪姗,费国松.基于分形几何理论的河湖结构连通性评价方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(6):24-28.(HU Zunle,WANG Shan,FEI Guosong.Evaluation method of structural connectivity for rivers and lakes based on theory of fractal geometry[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(6):24-28.(in Chinese))
[11] 云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院.云南省水中长期供求规划[R] .昆明:云南省水利厅,2013.
[12] 马平森,雷艳娇,卯昌书,等.基于用水总量与效率控制的云南省水资源配置[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(1):49-53.(MA Pingsen,LEI Yanjiao,MAO Changshu,et al.Water resources rational allocation based on total water consumption and water efficiency control in Yunnan Province[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015,35(1):49-53.(in Chinese))
[13] 李宗礼,郝秀平,王中根,等.河湖水系连通分类体系探讨[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1975-1982.(LI Zongli,HAO Xiuping,WANG Zhonggen,et al.Exploration on classification of interconnected river system network[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1975-1982.(in Chinese))
[14] 王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(WANG Jianhua,ZHAI Zhengli,SANG Xuefeng,et al.Study on index system and judgment criterion of water resources carrying capacity[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(9):1023-1029.(in Chinese))
[15] 张欧阳,熊文,丁洪亮.长江流域水系连通特征及其影响因素分析[J].人民长江,2010,41(1):1-5.(ZHANG Ouyang,XIONG Wen,DING Hongliang.Drainage connectivity characteristics and influential factors of Yangtze River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(1):1-5.(in Chinese))
[16] 顾世祥,李俊德,谢波,等.云南省水资源合理配置研究[J].水利水电技术,2007(12):54-58.(GU Shixiang,LI Junde,XIE Bo,et al.Study on reasonable allocation of water resources in Yunnan Province [J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2007(12):54-58.(in Chinese))