2001—2014年博斯腾湖流域植被物候时空变化及其驱动因子
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摘要
以博斯腾湖流域为研究对象,利用MODIS的MCD12Q2和LST产品、GHCN_CAMS气温观测/再分析资料与气象数据,采取趋势分析与相关性分析法探求了博斯腾湖流域2001—2014年植被物候的时空变化及其影响因素的相对作用,对博斯腾湖流域植被物候分区不同的驱动区域。结果表明:(1)在研究期内,整个研究区植被物候始期在第76—168天,末期在第172—295天;物候始期自南向北逐渐推迟、而末期逐渐提前,物候的空间分布特征与该区海拔高度的分布保持了较好的一致性;(2)2001—2014年植被始期和末期有明显提前趋势(提前3—6d),主要分布在流域的盆地和平原绿洲区,表示研究区植被物候受到人类活动的影响。(3)植被物候始期与末期变化受气候因子驱动影响的区域占比分别为57.10%和51.30%,主要分布在黄水沟流域,清水河流域,孔雀河流域,大尤路都斯盆地和小尤路都斯盆地周围地区;而非气候因子占42.90%和48.70%,主要位于博斯腾湖周围绿洲和库尔勒绿洲等地势较低的区域。(4)由植被生长季物候与降水、气温的偏相关性关系和复相关性关系可以得出,多年物候始期和末期与气温有关;而且随海拔升高,气温的敏感幅度越高。博斯腾湖流域植被物候的时空变化不仅是受气候变化的影响,还主要受人类活动和海拔高度差异等影响因素的共同作用。
Vegetation phenology is widely used as an independent measure and powerful indicator of primary net productivity,crop yields,insect emergence,bird migration,climate change,carbon balance and cycle,and fundamental ecosystem function and is influenced at the local and global scales by climatic factors( including precipitation,temperature)and human activities. Studies of vegetation phenology are important,as solutions are needed to overcome issues such as environmental change,sustainable management,and biodiversity conservation. Hence,an in-depth understanding of the spatio-temporal variations and driving factors of vegetation phenology are important in the currently changing environment.The Bosten Lake Drainage Basin is located in northwest China and covers a vast area with a complicated terrain,includingmost of the middle Tianshan Mountains in the northwest,whole Yanqi basin,and northeast part of the Tarim basin in the south,which are characterized by distinctive distribution patterns of temperature,precipitation,and human activities.Here,based on the MCD12Q2,GHCN_CAMS air temperature,Digital Elevation Model( DEM),and metrological observed data,we established monthly geographical weighted regression( GWR) models and measured the near surface air temperature. Next,spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of vegetation phenology in the Bosten Lake Drainage Basin were studied by determining slope,partial correlation,and multiple correlations. The results demonstrated that:(1) the start of growth season( SOG) was concentrated in 76—168 Julian days,whereas the end of growth season(EOS) was in 172—295 Julian days; the SOG was delayed and EOS was gradually advanced from north to south. Elevation played an important role in the regional differentiation of vegetation phenology; with increasing altitude, SOG was significantly delayed,EOG was advanced,and the length of the growth season( LOG) was significantly shortened.( 2)SOG and EOG advanced synchronously in the plane oasis area during 2001 and 2014 because of the influence of human activities.(3) Climatic factors affected the area of SOG and BOG accounted for 57.10% and 51.30%,respectively,and was mainly located in the Huangshuigou river watershed,Qingshui river watershed,Konqi river watershed,Qongyultuz basin,and around the Kiqikyultuz basin. Non-climatic factors affected the area of SOG and BOG,accounting for 42.90% and 48.70%,and were located in low-altitude regions including the oasis around Bosten lake and the Korla oasis.(4) The correlation between vegetation phenology and climatic factors by partial correlation and multiple correlations demonstrated that variations in inter-annual SOG and BOG were mostly affected by air temperature. As altitude increased,vegetation showed obvious sensitivity of phenology to temperature. In summary,spatio-temporal variations in vegetation phenology in the Bosten Lake Drainage Basin are not only influenced by climate change,but are also influenced by the combined effects of human activities and altitude.
Vegetation phenology is widely used as an independent measure and powerful indicator of primary net productivity,crop yields,insect emergence,bird migration,climate change,carbon balance and cycle,and fundamental ecosystem function and is influenced at the local and global scales by climatic factors( including precipitation,temperature)and human activities. Studies of vegetation phenology are important,as solutions are needed to overcome issues such as environmental change,sustainable management,and biodiversity conservation. Hence,an in-depth understanding of the spatio-temporal variations and driving factors of vegetation phenology are important in the currently changing environment.The Bosten Lake Drainage Basin is located in northwest China and covers a vast area with a complicated terrain,includingmost of the middle Tianshan Mountains in the northwest,whole Yanqi basin,and northeast part of the Tarim basin in the south,which are characterized by distinctive distribution patterns of temperature,precipitation,and human activities.Here,based on the MCD12Q2,GHCN_CAMS air temperature,Digital Elevation Model( DEM),and metrological observed data,we established monthly geographical weighted regression( GWR) models and measured the near surface air temperature. Next,spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of vegetation phenology in the Bosten Lake Drainage Basin were studied by determining slope,partial correlation,and multiple correlations. The results demonstrated that:(1) the start of growth season( SOG) was concentrated in 76—168 Julian days,whereas the end of growth season(EOS) was in 172—295 Julian days; the SOG was delayed and EOS was gradually advanced from north to south. Elevation played an important role in the regional differentiation of vegetation phenology; with increasing altitude, SOG was significantly delayed,EOG was advanced,and the length of the growth season( LOG) was significantly shortened.( 2)SOG and EOG advanced synchronously in the plane oasis area during 2001 and 2014 because of the influence of human activities.(3) Climatic factors affected the area of SOG and BOG accounted for 57.10% and 51.30%,respectively,and was mainly located in the Huangshuigou river watershed,Qingshui river watershed,Konqi river watershed,Qongyultuz basin,and around the Kiqikyultuz basin. Non-climatic factors affected the area of SOG and BOG,accounting for 42.90% and 48.70%,and were located in low-altitude regions including the oasis around Bosten lake and the Korla oasis.(4) The correlation between vegetation phenology and climatic factors by partial correlation and multiple correlations demonstrated that variations in inter-annual SOG and BOG were mostly affected by air temperature. As altitude increased,vegetation showed obvious sensitivity of phenology to temperature. In summary,spatio-temporal variations in vegetation phenology in the Bosten Lake Drainage Basin are not only influenced by climate change,but are also influenced by the combined effects of human activities and altitude.
引文
[1]周广胜,何奇瑾,殷晓洁.中国植被/陆地生态系统对气候变化的适应性与脆弱性.北京:气象出版社,2015.
[2]Walker J,de Beurs K,Wynne R H. Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes. Remote Sensing,2015,7(8):10832-10855.
[3]安佑志.基于遥感的中国北部植被NDVI和物候变化研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[4]Chen X Q,Hu B,Yu R. Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China.Global Change Biology,2005,11(7):1118-1130.
[5]Keeling C D,Chin J F S,Whorf T P. Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2measurements. Nature,1996,382(6587):146-149.
[6]Carrer M,Motta R,Nola P. Significant mean and extreme climate sensitivity of Norway spruce and silver fir at mid-elevation Mesic sites in the alps.PLoS One,2012,7(11):e50755.
[7]IPCC. Land Use,Land-Use Change,and Forestry:A Special Report of the IPCC. New York:Cambridge University Press,2000.
[8]秦大河,Stocker T. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[9]李辉霞,刘国华,傅伯杰.基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究.生态学报,2011,31(19):5495-5504.
[10]哈丽旦·司地克,玉素甫江·如素力,海米提·依米提.新疆焉耆盆地人类活动与气候变化的效应机制.生态学报,2016,36(18):5750-5758.
[11]马勇刚,张弛,塔西甫拉提·特依拜.中亚及中国新疆干旱区植被物候时空变化.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):95-102.
[12]国志兴,张晓宁,王宗明,方伟华.东北地区植被物候对气候变化的响应.生态学杂志,2010,29(3):578-585.
[13]游松财,宋春桥,柯灵红,刘高焕,钟新科.基于MODIS植被指数的藏北高原植被物候空间分布特征.生态学杂志,2011,30(7):1513-1520.
[14]Kariyeva J,van Leeuwen W J D,Woodhouse C A. Impacts of climate gradients on the vegetation phenology of major land use types in Central Asia(1981—2008). Frontiers of Earth Science,2012,6(2):206-225.
[15]Kariyeva J,van Leeuwen W J D. Environmental drivers of NDVI-based vegetation phenology in Central Asia. Remote Sensing,2011,3(2):203-246.
[16]Menzel A,Sparks T H,Estrella N,E Koch,A Aasa. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology,2006,12(10):1969-1976.
[17]Schwartz M D,Reiter B E. Changes in North American spring. International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(8):929-932.
[18]Zhang F Y,Li L H,Ahmad S. Streamflow pattern variations resulting from future climate change in middle Tianshan Mountains Region in China//World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. Sacramento,CA:American Society of Civil Engineers,2017:437-446.
[19]陈亚宁,李稚,方功焕,邓海军.气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究.地理学报,2017,72(01):18-26.
[20]买托合提·阿那依提,玉素甫江·如素力,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,迪力夏提·司马义.新疆开都河流域主要地貌形态特征研究.冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1160-1166.
[21]周成虎,罗格平,李策,汤奇成,励惠国,王钦敏,Fukui H.博斯腾湖环境变化及其与焉耆盆地绿洲开发关系研究.地理研究,2001,20(1):14-23.
[22]玉素甫江·如素力.基于GIS-SD的新疆焉耆盆地二元水循环过程模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2015.
[23]黄小忠,陈发虎,肖舜,吕雁斌,陈建微,周爱锋.新疆博斯腾湖沉积物粒度的古环境意义初探.湖泊科学,2008,20(3):291-297.
[24]王聪,李静,柳钦火,柏军华,徐保东,赵静,曾也鲁.黑河流域遥感物候产品验证与分析.遥感学报,2017,21(3):442-457.
[25]Peng D L,Zhang X Y,Wu C Y,Huang W J,Gonsamo A,Huete A R,Didan K,Tan B,Liu X J,Zhang B. Intercomparison and evaluation of spring phenology products using National Phenology Network and Ameri Flux observations in the contiguous United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,242:33-46.
[26]孙占东,Opp C,王润,高前兆.博斯腾湖流域山区地表径流对近期气候变化的响应.山地学报,2010,28(2):206-211.
[27]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M E. Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geographical Analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[28]Wu X C,Liu H Y. Consistent shifts in spring vegetation green-up date across temperate biomes in China,1982-2006. Global Change Biology,2013,19(3):870-880.
[29]李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,王春凤,贾文雄,张蔚,刘婧.我国横断山区1960-2008年气温和降水时空变化特征.地理学报,2010,65(5):563-579.
[30]李晓兵,史培军.中国典型植被类型NDVI动态变化与气温、降水变化的敏感性分析.植物生态学报,2000,24(3):379-382.
[31]高志强,刘纪元,曹明涛,李克让,陶波.土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力的影响.地理学报,2001,59(4):581-591.
[32]Mohamed M A A,Babiker I S,Chen Z M,Ikeda K,Ohta K,Kato K. The role of climate variability in the inter-annual variation of terrestrial net primary production(NPP). Science of the Total Environment,2004,332(1/3):123-137.
[33]刘军会,高吉喜.气候和土地利用变化对北方农牧交错带植被NPP变化的影响.资源科学,2009,31(3):493-500.
[34]陈云浩,李晓兵,史培军. 1983—1992年中国陆地NDVI变化的气候因子驱动分析.植物生态学报,2001,25(6):716-720.
[2]Walker J,de Beurs K,Wynne R H. Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes. Remote Sensing,2015,7(8):10832-10855.
[3]安佑志.基于遥感的中国北部植被NDVI和物候变化研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[4]Chen X Q,Hu B,Yu R. Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China.Global Change Biology,2005,11(7):1118-1130.
[5]Keeling C D,Chin J F S,Whorf T P. Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2measurements. Nature,1996,382(6587):146-149.
[6]Carrer M,Motta R,Nola P. Significant mean and extreme climate sensitivity of Norway spruce and silver fir at mid-elevation Mesic sites in the alps.PLoS One,2012,7(11):e50755.
[7]IPCC. Land Use,Land-Use Change,and Forestry:A Special Report of the IPCC. New York:Cambridge University Press,2000.
[8]秦大河,Stocker T. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[9]李辉霞,刘国华,傅伯杰.基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究.生态学报,2011,31(19):5495-5504.
[10]哈丽旦·司地克,玉素甫江·如素力,海米提·依米提.新疆焉耆盆地人类活动与气候变化的效应机制.生态学报,2016,36(18):5750-5758.
[11]马勇刚,张弛,塔西甫拉提·特依拜.中亚及中国新疆干旱区植被物候时空变化.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):95-102.
[12]国志兴,张晓宁,王宗明,方伟华.东北地区植被物候对气候变化的响应.生态学杂志,2010,29(3):578-585.
[13]游松财,宋春桥,柯灵红,刘高焕,钟新科.基于MODIS植被指数的藏北高原植被物候空间分布特征.生态学杂志,2011,30(7):1513-1520.
[14]Kariyeva J,van Leeuwen W J D,Woodhouse C A. Impacts of climate gradients on the vegetation phenology of major land use types in Central Asia(1981—2008). Frontiers of Earth Science,2012,6(2):206-225.
[15]Kariyeva J,van Leeuwen W J D. Environmental drivers of NDVI-based vegetation phenology in Central Asia. Remote Sensing,2011,3(2):203-246.
[16]Menzel A,Sparks T H,Estrella N,E Koch,A Aasa. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology,2006,12(10):1969-1976.
[17]Schwartz M D,Reiter B E. Changes in North American spring. International Journal of Climatology,2000,20(8):929-932.
[18]Zhang F Y,Li L H,Ahmad S. Streamflow pattern variations resulting from future climate change in middle Tianshan Mountains Region in China//World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. Sacramento,CA:American Society of Civil Engineers,2017:437-446.
[19]陈亚宁,李稚,方功焕,邓海军.气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究.地理学报,2017,72(01):18-26.
[20]买托合提·阿那依提,玉素甫江·如素力,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,迪力夏提·司马义.新疆开都河流域主要地貌形态特征研究.冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1160-1166.
[21]周成虎,罗格平,李策,汤奇成,励惠国,王钦敏,Fukui H.博斯腾湖环境变化及其与焉耆盆地绿洲开发关系研究.地理研究,2001,20(1):14-23.
[22]玉素甫江·如素力.基于GIS-SD的新疆焉耆盆地二元水循环过程模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2015.
[23]黄小忠,陈发虎,肖舜,吕雁斌,陈建微,周爱锋.新疆博斯腾湖沉积物粒度的古环境意义初探.湖泊科学,2008,20(3):291-297.
[24]王聪,李静,柳钦火,柏军华,徐保东,赵静,曾也鲁.黑河流域遥感物候产品验证与分析.遥感学报,2017,21(3):442-457.
[25]Peng D L,Zhang X Y,Wu C Y,Huang W J,Gonsamo A,Huete A R,Didan K,Tan B,Liu X J,Zhang B. Intercomparison and evaluation of spring phenology products using National Phenology Network and Ameri Flux observations in the contiguous United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,242:33-46.
[26]孙占东,Opp C,王润,高前兆.博斯腾湖流域山区地表径流对近期气候变化的响应.山地学报,2010,28(2):206-211.
[27]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham A S,Charlton M E. Geographically weighted regression:a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geographical Analysis,1996,28(4):281-298.
[28]Wu X C,Liu H Y. Consistent shifts in spring vegetation green-up date across temperate biomes in China,1982-2006. Global Change Biology,2013,19(3):870-880.
[29]李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,王春凤,贾文雄,张蔚,刘婧.我国横断山区1960-2008年气温和降水时空变化特征.地理学报,2010,65(5):563-579.
[30]李晓兵,史培军.中国典型植被类型NDVI动态变化与气温、降水变化的敏感性分析.植物生态学报,2000,24(3):379-382.
[31]高志强,刘纪元,曹明涛,李克让,陶波.土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力的影响.地理学报,2001,59(4):581-591.
[32]Mohamed M A A,Babiker I S,Chen Z M,Ikeda K,Ohta K,Kato K. The role of climate variability in the inter-annual variation of terrestrial net primary production(NPP). Science of the Total Environment,2004,332(1/3):123-137.
[33]刘军会,高吉喜.气候和土地利用变化对北方农牧交错带植被NPP变化的影响.资源科学,2009,31(3):493-500.
[34]陈云浩,李晓兵,史培军. 1983—1992年中国陆地NDVI变化的气候因子驱动分析.植物生态学报,2001,25(6):716-720.