气候变化对新疆黄水沟流域径流过程的影响
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摘要
采用Mann-Kendall检验、R/S法及一元线性回归等方法,分析了新疆黄水沟流域1961-2013年气温、降水及径流的变化特征.结果表明:这一期间的气温、降水及径流均呈显著增加趋势,其突变年份变量的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明未来一段时间内仍将持续增加;同时敏感性分析也表明,当降水量不变,温度增加1℃时,黄水沟年径流将增加12.8%.当温度不变,降水量增加10%时,径流将增加4.5%.说明径流对流域气温与降水量的变化均较为显著.
Research on the response of climate change to river runoff is of great significance for river basin water resources planning,utilization and ecological environment protection. In this paper,Mann- Kendall test,R / S method and linear regression method are adopted to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature,precipitation and runoff in Huangshui River Basin from 1961 to 2013. The results show that: in the recent 53 years,temperature,precipitation and runoff show an increasing trend,the growth rate respectively is 0. 034 5 ℃ / a,0. 793 mm / a and 1. 88 × 106m3/ a,the corresponding mutation year respectively is 1997,1989 and 1996; the variable Hurst index are all more than 0. 5,which will continue to increase in the future; sensitivity analysis shows that,when the rainfall is constant,increasing the temperature of 1 ℃,annual runoff will increase 12. 8%. When the temperature is constant,increasing the precipitation of 10%,runoff will increase 4. 5%,which indicates that the response of precipitation and temperature to the runoff are both obvious.
Research on the response of climate change to river runoff is of great significance for river basin water resources planning,utilization and ecological environment protection. In this paper,Mann- Kendall test,R / S method and linear regression method are adopted to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature,precipitation and runoff in Huangshui River Basin from 1961 to 2013. The results show that: in the recent 53 years,temperature,precipitation and runoff show an increasing trend,the growth rate respectively is 0. 034 5 ℃ / a,0. 793 mm / a and 1. 88 × 106m3/ a,the corresponding mutation year respectively is 1997,1989 and 1996; the variable Hurst index are all more than 0. 5,which will continue to increase in the future; sensitivity analysis shows that,when the rainfall is constant,increasing the temperature of 1 ℃,annual runoff will increase 12. 8%. When the temperature is constant,increasing the precipitation of 10%,runoff will increase 4. 5%,which indicates that the response of precipitation and temperature to the runoff are both obvious.
引文
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[3]迪丽努尔·阿吉,近藤昭彦,肖開提·阿吉.博河流域气候变化及其与径流量的关系研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2123-2130.
[4]张永勇,张士锋,翟晓燕.气候变化下石羊河流域径流模拟与影响量化[J].资源科学,2013,35(3):601-609.
[5]刘彩红,朱西德,白彦芳.近50年来黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及其未来变化趋势预测[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1236-1241.
[6]李斌,李丽娟,覃驭楚.基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):70-76.
[7]李金标,王刚,李相虎.石羊河流域近50a来气候变化与人类活动对水资源的影响[J].干早区资源与环境,2008,22(2):75-80.
[8]蒋艳,夏军.塔里木河流域径流变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].资源科学,2007,29(3):45-52.
[9]蔡玉林,孙国清,过志峰.气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流的影响模拟[J].资源科学,2009,31(5):743-749.
[10]江田汉,邓莲堂.Hurst指数估计中存在的若干问题——以在气候变化研究中的应用为例[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):177-182.
[11]门宝辉,刘昌明,夏军.R/S分析法在南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流趋势预测中的应用[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(4):568-573.
[12]凌红波,徐海量,张青青.新疆玛纳斯河年径流时序特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1639-1646.
[13]MANN,H.B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[14]Kendall.Rank correlation measures[M].2nd Edition,London:Charles Griffin,1975.
[15]孔兰,谢江松,陈晓宏.珠江口最高洪潮水位变化规律研究[J].水资源研究,2012(1):315-319.
[16]赵明扬,孙长忠,康磊.偏相关系数在林冠截留影响因子分析中的应用[J].西南林业大学学报,2013(2):61-65.
[17]李林,付强.偏最小二乘回归模型的城市水资源承载能力研究[J].水科学进展,2005,16(6):822-825.