基于系统动力学的社交网络舆情应对策略仿真分析——以“亚布力事件”为例
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摘要
在信息技术高速发展的背景下,社交网络平台不断涌现并得以广泛使用。它在给生活带来便利的同时却也导致了社交网络舆情的产生,如何有效应对社交网络舆情是政府面临的新挑战。对与社交网络舆情关联度较高的多主体因素进行分析后,采用Vensim PLE软件构建社交网络舆情多主体应对模型,并结合具体案例"亚布力事件"进行仿真分析。结果表明:社交网络舆情受舆情事件、媒体、网民、政府多个主体及其相关因素的共同影响,政府可通过提升舆情事件导控能力、规范和引导媒体行为、积极疏导网民情绪及提高信息透明度等举措有效应对社交网络舆情。
In the context of the rapid development of information technology,social networking platforms are constantly emerging and widely used.While it brings convenience to life,it also leads to the emergence of public opinions on social networks.How to effectively deal with public opinions on social networks is a new challenge facing the government.After the multi-agent factors with high degree of relevance to public opinions on social networks are analyzed,Vensim PLE software is used to construct the multi-agent coping model for public opinions on social networks,and the specific case of"Yabuli Incident"is used for simulation analysis.The results show that public opinions on social networks are affected by the public opinion events,the media,the netizens,and many government entities and related factors.The government can cope effectively with public opinions on social networks through such measures as improving the ability to control public opinions,regulating and guiding media behaviors,actively channeling netizens' emotions,and improving information transparency,etc.
In the context of the rapid development of information technology,social networking platforms are constantly emerging and widely used.While it brings convenience to life,it also leads to the emergence of public opinions on social networks.How to effectively deal with public opinions on social networks is a new challenge facing the government.After the multi-agent factors with high degree of relevance to public opinions on social networks are analyzed,Vensim PLE software is used to construct the multi-agent coping model for public opinions on social networks,and the specific case of"Yabuli Incident"is used for simulation analysis.The results show that public opinions on social networks are affected by the public opinion events,the media,the netizens,and many government entities and related factors.The government can cope effectively with public opinions on social networks through such measures as improving the ability to control public opinions,regulating and guiding media behaviors,actively channeling netizens' emotions,and improving information transparency,etc.
引文
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[13]陈福集,翁丽娟.基于系统动力学的移动环境下高校网络舆情应对策略研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(4):118-123.
[14]高航.政府舆情应对能力系统动力学建模与仿真研究[J].情报科学,2016,34(2):133-138.
[15]李仕争,丁菊玲.移动社交网络谣言演化的系统动力学模型与仿真[J].情报杂志,2016,35(9):117-123.
[16]陈福集,黄江玲.三方博弈视角下政府应对网络推手的对策研究[J].中国行政管理,2013(11):18-21.
[17]兰月新,邓新元.突发事件网络舆情演进规律模型研究[J].情报杂志,2011,30(8):47-50.
[18]胡珑瑛,董靖巍.网络舆情演进过程参与主体策略行为仿真和政府引导[J].中国软科学,2016(10):50-61.
[2]于兆吉,张嘉桐.基于扎根理论的突发性网络舆情演化影响因素研究[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(5):498-502.
[3]兰月新,邓新元.突发事件网络舆情演进规律模型研究[J].情报杂志,2011,30(8):47-50.
[4]姜钰,贺雪涛.基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析[J].中国软科学,2014(1):105-114.
[5]王高飞,李明.基于AHP-模糊综合分析的移动社交网络舆情预警模型研究[J].现代情报,2017,37(1):41-44.
[6]袁国平,许晓兵.基于系统动力学的关于突发事件后网络舆情热度研究[J].情报科学,2015,33(10):52-56.
[7]高歌,张艺炜.基于系统动力学的网络舆情演进机理及影响力研究[J].情报理论与实践,2016,39(12):39-45.
[8]高航,丁荣贵.基于系统动力学的网络舆情风险模型仿真研究[J].情报杂志,2014,33(11):7-13.
[9]徐勇.网络舆情事件演变的动力学建模及预警监测[J].现代情报,2016,36(4):14-19.
[10]徐学峰,杜晚樱.网络舆情预警机制的系统动力学仿真[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版),2011,24(2):83-86.
[11]郭梦珂,郭东强,余鲲鹏.基于系统动力学的政府网络舆情回应研究[J].科技与经济,2018,31(3):45-49.
[12]林芹,郭东强.企业网络舆情传播的系统动力学仿真研究[J].情报科学,2017,35(4):54-60.
[13]陈福集,翁丽娟.基于系统动力学的移动环境下高校网络舆情应对策略研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(4):118-123.
[14]高航.政府舆情应对能力系统动力学建模与仿真研究[J].情报科学,2016,34(2):133-138.
[15]李仕争,丁菊玲.移动社交网络谣言演化的系统动力学模型与仿真[J].情报杂志,2016,35(9):117-123.
[16]陈福集,黄江玲.三方博弈视角下政府应对网络推手的对策研究[J].中国行政管理,2013(11):18-21.
[17]兰月新,邓新元.突发事件网络舆情演进规律模型研究[J].情报杂志,2011,30(8):47-50.
[18]胡珑瑛,董靖巍.网络舆情演进过程参与主体策略行为仿真和政府引导[J].中国软科学,2016(10):50-61.