基于马尔科夫方法的区域水交换研究
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摘要
海洋中,在周期性潮流动力条件下,区域间的水体交换可近似认为满足马尔科夫性,利用该性质,可以快速有效地预测区域间的水交换问题。该文以渤海辽河口为研究区域,通过粒子跟踪方法得到区域间的概率传输矩阵,根据马尔科夫性,利用概率传输矩阵对辽河口水交换进行预测。研究表明,利用概率传输矩阵预测得到的水交换结果不仅与直接数值模拟吻合良好,还可极大缩减水体交换的计算模拟时间,因此对于长周期的预测,马尔科夫传输矩阵法比直接数值模拟更合理。
The interregional water exchange in ocean has the Markov property under the periodic dynamic conditions. Such feature is effectively used to predict the water exchange process. The probability transportation matrix is calculated based on particle tracking model in the Liaohe Estuary. And then in terms of the Markov property, the water exchange is predicted by the matrix. It is indicated that the results forecasted by the probability transportation matrix fit well with the results obtained by the numerical simulation. The Markov transportation matrix approach is more reasonable than the numerical simulation method during long term simulation.
The interregional water exchange in ocean has the Markov property under the periodic dynamic conditions. Such feature is effectively used to predict the water exchange process. The probability transportation matrix is calculated based on particle tracking model in the Liaohe Estuary. And then in terms of the Markov property, the water exchange is predicted by the matrix. It is indicated that the results forecasted by the probability transportation matrix fit well with the results obtained by the numerical simulation. The Markov transportation matrix approach is more reasonable than the numerical simulation method during long term simulation.
引文
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[14]张学庆,王鹏程,石明珠,等.大辽河口存留时间和暴露时间数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):709-714.ZHANG Xue-qing,WANG Peng-cheng,SHI Ming-zhu,et al.Numerical study of residence time and exposure time in Daliaohe Estuary[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):709-714.
[15]王鹏程,张学庆,孙刚,等.基于FVCOM汐潮流数值模拟[J].海洋湖沼通报,2012,34(3):146-152.WANG Peng-cheng,ZHANG Xue-qing,SUN Gang,et al.Numerical simulation of tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay based on FVCOM[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2012,34(3):146-152.
[2]匡国瑞,王学冒,张彦臣,等.烟台芝罘西湾水质污染预测的初步探讨[J].海洋环境科学,1984,3(4):16-25.KUANG Guo-rui,WANG Xue-mao,ZHANG Yan-chen,et al.Preliminary study on forecast of water pollution in Yantai Zhifu West Bay[J].Marine Environmental Science,1984,3(4):16-25.
[3]B?NISCH G,SCHLOSSER P.Deep water formation and exchange rates in the Greenland/Norwegian Seas and the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean derived from tracer balances[J].Progress in Oceanography,1995,35(1):29-52.
[4]韩雅琼,沈永明.基于EFDC的渤海冬夏季环流及其影响因素的数值模拟研究[J].水动力学研究与进展,A辑,2013,28(6):733-744.HAN Ya-qiong,SHEN Yong-ming.Numerical simulation of the winter and summer circulation and its driving factors in the Bohai Sea based on EFDC[J].Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics,2013,28(6):733-744.
[5]BILGILI A,PROEHI J A,LYNCH D R,et al.Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary:A Lagrangian modeling study[J].Estuarine Coastal&Shelf Science,2005,65(4):607-624.
[6]董礼先,苏纪兰.象山港水交换数值研究──Ⅰ.对流-扩散型的水交换模式[J].海洋与湖沼,1999,30(4):410-415.DONG Li-xian,SU Ji-lan.Numerical study of the water exchange in the Xiangshangang Bay:I.advectiondiffusion water exchange model[J].Oceanologia Et Limnologia Sinica,1999,30(4):410-415.
[7]李希彬,张秋丰,牛福新,等.渤海湾水交换的数值研究[J].海洋学研究,2013,31(3):83-88.LI Xi-bin,ZHANG Qiu-feng,NIU Fu-xin,et al.Numerical studies of Bohai Bay water exchange[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,2013,31(3):83-88.
[8]魏皓,田恬,周锋,等.渤海水交换的数值研究-水质模型对半交换时间的模拟[J].青岛海洋大学学报:自然科学版,2002,32(4):519-525.WEI Hao,TIAN Tian,ZHOU Feng,et al.Numerical study on the water exchange of the Bohai Sea:simulation of the half-life time by dispersion model[J].Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao,2002,32(4):519-525.
[9]马世荣.马尔科夫性是相互独立性的推广[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,1987,7(2):112-117.MA Shi-rong.Markov property is a generalization of mutual independence[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,1987,7(2):112-117.
[10]THOMPSON K R,DOWD M,SHEN Y,et al.Probabilistic characterization of tidal mixing in a coastal embayment:A Markov Chain approach[J].Continental Shelf Research,2002,22(11):1603-1614.
[11]程万里,李亦芳,郝伏勤,等.黄河三门峡段基于马尔科夫模型的水质预测[J].电力科技与环保,2008,24(3):8-11.CHENG Wan-li,LI Yi-fang,HAO Fu-qin,et al.The water quality forecast of Sanmenxia Reach based on Markov model[J].Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection,2008,24(3):8-11.
[12]李祥,王心源,李玉龙,等.基于灰色-马尔科夫预测模型的巢湖流域洪涝灾害预测研究[J].水文,2006,26(4):43-46.LI Xiang,WANG Xin-yuan,LI Yu-long,et al.Forecasting flood disasters in the Chaohu Lake basin based on Grey-Markov theory[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26(4):43-46.
[13]谢森扬,王翠,王金坑,等.基于EFDC的九龙江口-厦门湾三维潮流及盐度数值模拟研究[J].水动力学研究与进展,A辑,2016,31(1):63-75.XIE Sen-yang,WANG Cui,WANG Jin-keng,et al.Numerical simulation study on 3D tidal flow and Salinity in the Jiulong Estuary-Xiamen Bay based on the EFDC[J].Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics,2016,31(1):63-75.
[14]张学庆,王鹏程,石明珠,等.大辽河口存留时间和暴露时间数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):709-714.ZHANG Xue-qing,WANG Peng-cheng,SHI Ming-zhu,et al.Numerical study of residence time and exposure time in Daliaohe Estuary[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):709-714.
[15]王鹏程,张学庆,孙刚,等.基于FVCOM汐潮流数值模拟[J].海洋湖沼通报,2012,34(3):146-152.WANG Peng-cheng,ZHANG Xue-qing,SUN Gang,et al.Numerical simulation of tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay based on FVCOM[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2012,34(3):146-152.