基于陆面水文耦合模型CLHMS的黄河源区水循环模拟与分析
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摘要
以黄河源区作为研究对象,建立适合于黄河源区的大尺度陆面水文耦合模式,并利用该模式开展1971-2014年该流域水文水循环过程的数值模拟,通过干流主要水文站流量资料对模型的模拟精度进行率定和验证。分析结果表明,模型模拟的水量平衡系数接近于1,Pearson相关系数高于0.85,而纳什效率系数高于0.72,因此模式对流量峰值的模拟能力有待提高。模式模拟水循环主要要素的时空分布有较高的精度和准确性,因此该模式适用于黄河源区水文循环模拟。
Setting the Yellow River source area as the research area, a macro-scale land surface hydrological model is established. The model is then applied to carry out numerical simulations of hydrological cycle in the basin between 1971 and 2014. Simulation accuracy is calibrated and validated by using discharge data from main gauging stations located at main streams. The results of simulations indicate that, water balance coefficient is close to 1, and correlation coefficient is higher than 0.85, with Nash efficiency factor higher than 0.72. Therefore, the capacity of the model to simulate peak flows is yet to be improved. While the spatial and temporal distribution of the main elements of hydrological cycle simulated has a relatively high precision and accuracy, this model can be applied to simulate hydrological cycle in the Yellow River source area.
Setting the Yellow River source area as the research area, a macro-scale land surface hydrological model is established. The model is then applied to carry out numerical simulations of hydrological cycle in the basin between 1971 and 2014. Simulation accuracy is calibrated and validated by using discharge data from main gauging stations located at main streams. The results of simulations indicate that, water balance coefficient is close to 1, and correlation coefficient is higher than 0.85, with Nash efficiency factor higher than 0.72. Therefore, the capacity of the model to simulate peak flows is yet to be improved. While the spatial and temporal distribution of the main elements of hydrological cycle simulated has a relatively high precision and accuracy, this model can be applied to simulate hydrological cycle in the Yellow River source area.
引文
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[2] 宁金花, 申双和. 气候变化对中国水资源的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2008,36(4):1 580-1 583.
[3] 王莉莉, 陈德辉. GRAPES NOAH-LSM 陆面模式水文过程的改进及试验研究[J]. 大气科学, 2013,37(6):1 179-1 186.
[4] Li H, Wigmosta M S, Wu H, et al. A physically based runoff routing model for land surface and earth system models [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2013,14(3):808-828.
[5] Yang Chuanguo, Zhaohui Lin, Zhongbo Yu, et al. Analysis and simulation of human activity impact on streamflow in the Huaihe River basin with a large-scale hydrologic model [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2010,11(3):810-821.
[6] 唐伟, 林朝晖, 杨传国, 等. 基于陆面水文耦合模式 CLHMS 的淮河流域水文过程的模拟评估及其不确定性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2014,19(4):463-476.
[7] 李敏.区域气象-陆面水文耦合模式的研制和应用[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2014.
[8] 王莺, 李耀辉, 孙旭映. 气候变化对黄河源区生态环境的影响[J]. 草业科学, 2015,32(4):539-551.
[9] 杨传国. 区域陆面—水文耦合模拟研究与应用[D]. 南京:河海大学, 2009.
[10] Pollard D, S L Thompson. Use of a land -surface -transfer scheme (LSX) in a global climate model (GENESIS): the response to doubling stomatal resistance [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 1995,10:129-161.
[11] Yu Z, Lakhtakia M N, Yarnal B, et al. Simulating the river-basin response to atmospheric forcing by linking a mesoscale meteorological model and hydrologic model system[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1999,218(1):72-91.
[12] Webb R S, C E Rosenzweig, E R Levine. Specifying land surface characteristics in general circulation models: soil profile data set and derived water-holding capacities, global biogeochem[J].Cycles,1993,7(1):97-108.
[13] 陈利群, 刘昌明, 郝芳华. 气候对黄河源区径流系数的影响[C]// 2006中国科协年会. 2006.
[14] 刘猛, 夏自强, 李俊芬,等. 全球气候变暖背景下黄河源区蒸发变化研究[J]. 人民黄河, 2008,30(9):30-31.