三种旱涝指标在南京市的适用性分析
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摘要
为评价降水Z指数、标准化降水指数和降水分级指数三种旱涝指标在南京市的旱涝频发特征中应用的优劣,基于南京站1951~2012年逐日降水资料,研究1、3、6、9、12个月等5种尺度下降水Z指数、降水分级指数和标准化降水指数三种旱涝指标与对应时段降水量的关系、三种旱涝指标的相关关系、月际过程及在历史典型旱涝年中的应用效果。结果表明,降水Z指数、降水分级指数与对应时段降水量线性关系良好,标准化降水指数与对应时段降水量的关系为12条差异明显的单增曲线簇,标准化降水指数能考虑降水在时程分布上的差异,尺度越大,各指标间相关关系越好;1、3、6、9个月尺度下的降水Z指数、降水分级指数不适用于南京市,12个月尺度下的降水Z指数、降水分级指数和标准化降水指数对旱涝判断基本一致,降水分级指数对降水的敏感度高,更能反映历史旱涝严重程度。
Based on the daily precipitation data of Nanjing metrological station,this paper investigated the relationship between three drought indices,i.e.,Z,RRDDI,SSPI,and precipitation in the corresponding period,mutual correlation of the three drought indices,monthly process and their performance in historical typical drought year under five time scales,that is 1,3,6,9and 12 months.The result indicates:Z/RRDDIand precipitation in the corresponding period appears a good linear relationship,while SSPIand precipitation in the corresponding period presents 12 monotonically increasing curves;SSPIincorporates the difference induced by the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation,and the larger the time scale,the better the correlation of three indices;Zand RRDDIunder the scale of 1,3,6,and 9months is not fit for Nanjing City,the results of Z,RRDDI,and SSPIare basically the same under 12-month-sacle;RRDDIis more sensitive to precipitation,and it is more suitable for describing the severity of droughts.
Based on the daily precipitation data of Nanjing metrological station,this paper investigated the relationship between three drought indices,i.e.,Z,RRDDI,SSPI,and precipitation in the corresponding period,mutual correlation of the three drought indices,monthly process and their performance in historical typical drought year under five time scales,that is 1,3,6,9and 12 months.The result indicates:Z/RRDDIand precipitation in the corresponding period appears a good linear relationship,while SSPIand precipitation in the corresponding period presents 12 monotonically increasing curves;SSPIincorporates the difference induced by the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation,and the larger the time scale,the better the correlation of three indices;Zand RRDDIunder the scale of 1,3,6,and 9months is not fit for Nanjing City,the results of Z,RRDDI,and SSPIare basically the same under 12-month-sacle;RRDDIis more sensitive to precipitation,and it is more suitable for describing the severity of droughts.
引文
[1]孙银凤,陆宝宏.基于EEMD的南京市降水特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(3):5-9.
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[7]林盛吉,许月萍,田烨,等.基于Z指数和SPI指数的钱塘江流域干旱时空分析[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(2):20-26.
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[9]蒋德隆.长江中下游气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1991.
[2]Morid S,Smakhtin V,Moghaddasi M.Comparison of Seven Meteorological Indices for Drought Monitoring in Iran[J].International Journal of Climatology,2006,26(7):971-985.
[3]王璐,温海燕,杨春生,等.三种干旱指标在北京地区的应用对比研究[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):5-7,212.
[4]李红梅.4种干旱指标在陕西的适用性比较分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(11):50-54,58.
[5]林盛吉,张庆庆,俞超锋,等.干旱指数在杭州市历年旱涝特征分析中的应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(1):69-73,81.
[6]韩继伟,孔凡哲,赵磊,等.两种气象干旱指标的应用比较研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(1):85-88.
[7]林盛吉,许月萍,田烨,等.基于Z指数和SPI指数的钱塘江流域干旱时空分析[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(2):20-26.
[8]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[9]蒋德隆.长江中下游气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1991.