基于向量自回归模型的清远市手足口病发病预测分析
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摘要
目的运用向量自回归模型(vector autoregression model,VAR)分析清远市手足口病发病与气象因素的动态关系,为手足口病的防控提供科学依据。方法用2013年1月1日-2017年4月30日的气象数据和手足口病发病数据建立VAR模型,评价模型的稳定性及拟合效果,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析对模型进行定量分析,进一步对手足口病发病情况进行预测并评价预测效果。结果模型总拟合优度为0. 96,调整后拟合优度为0. 95。手足口病发病数对日最低气温、日地表最低气温和日平均相对湿度等气象因素的冲击响应是正向的。模型对未来1周、2周、3周和4周的手足口病发病预测其平均绝对百分误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)分别为17. 75%、13. 69%、10. 74%和15. 85%,希尔不等式系数(Theil inequality coefficient,TIC)分别为0. 08、0. 06、0. 05和0. 09。结论气象因素和手足口病发病的VAR模型可以较好地进行清远市手足口病发病的短期预测。
Objective To analyze the dynamic relationship between hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD) incidence and meteorological factors in Qingyuan City by using vector autoregression model(VAR) so as to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The VAR model was established with the meteorological data and HFMD incidence data from January 1,2013 to April 30,2017. The stability and fitting effect of the model were evaluated. The model was analyzed quantitatively by using impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,and the results were used to further predict the incidence of HFMD and evaluate the prediction effect. Results The total goodness-of-fit of the model was 0.96,and the adjusted goodness-of-fit was 0.95. The impact of HFMD incidence on the daily minimum temperature,daily minimum surface temperature and daily average relative humidity was positive. The mean absolute percentage errors in the prediction of HFMD in the next week and next 2,3 and 4 weeks were 17.75%,13.69%,10.74% and 15.85% respectively,and Theil inequality coefficients were 0.08,0.06,0.05 and 0.09 respectively. Conclusions The VAR model of meteorological factors and HFMD incidence can be used for short-term prediction of HFMD incidence in Qingyuan City.
Objective To analyze the dynamic relationship between hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD) incidence and meteorological factors in Qingyuan City by using vector autoregression model(VAR) so as to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The VAR model was established with the meteorological data and HFMD incidence data from January 1,2013 to April 30,2017. The stability and fitting effect of the model were evaluated. The model was analyzed quantitatively by using impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,and the results were used to further predict the incidence of HFMD and evaluate the prediction effect. Results The total goodness-of-fit of the model was 0.96,and the adjusted goodness-of-fit was 0.95. The impact of HFMD incidence on the daily minimum temperature,daily minimum surface temperature and daily average relative humidity was positive. The mean absolute percentage errors in the prediction of HFMD in the next week and next 2,3 and 4 weeks were 17.75%,13.69%,10.74% and 15.85% respectively,and Theil inequality coefficients were 0.08,0.06,0.05 and 0.09 respectively. Conclusions The VAR model of meteorological factors and HFMD incidence can be used for short-term prediction of HFMD incidence in Qingyuan City.
引文
[1]叶永同,颜玉炳.厦门市翔安区手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测方法研究[J].实用预防医学,2016,23(2):237-239.
[2]原凌云,周以军,朱妮,等.多种数据模型在手足口病发病预测的应用探讨[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(11):1400-1402.
[3]康敏,马文军,林锦炎,等.广州市气象因素对于手足口病发病的短期效应研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2012,33(2):244-245.
[4]倪延延,张晋昕.向量自回归模型拟合与预测效果评价[J].中国卫生统计,2014,31(1):53-56.
[5]韦懿芸.向量自回归模型在手足口病发病与气象因素的动态分析中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(6):794-797.
[6]霍宗杰,祝伟.中国的能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长-基于ARDL模型的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2010,32(3):28-35.
[7]杜玉忠,李翠华,梁剑辉,等.清远市手足口病流行趋势与短期气候因素的关系[J].职业与健康,2015,31(15):2062-2063.
[8] Ma E,Lam T,Wong C,et al. Is hand,foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?[J]. Epidemiol Infect,2010,138(12):1779-1788.
[9]杜志成,张王剑,于石成,等.广东省手足口病气象危险因素阈值效应的研究[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(19):3457-3460.
[10]安庆玉,范雪松,吴隽,等.大连市手足口病与气象因素的相关性研究[J].现代预防医学,2014,41(1):3-6.
[2]原凌云,周以军,朱妮,等.多种数据模型在手足口病发病预测的应用探讨[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(11):1400-1402.
[3]康敏,马文军,林锦炎,等.广州市气象因素对于手足口病发病的短期效应研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2012,33(2):244-245.
[4]倪延延,张晋昕.向量自回归模型拟合与预测效果评价[J].中国卫生统计,2014,31(1):53-56.
[5]韦懿芸.向量自回归模型在手足口病发病与气象因素的动态分析中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(6):794-797.
[6]霍宗杰,祝伟.中国的能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长-基于ARDL模型的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2010,32(3):28-35.
[7]杜玉忠,李翠华,梁剑辉,等.清远市手足口病流行趋势与短期气候因素的关系[J].职业与健康,2015,31(15):2062-2063.
[8] Ma E,Lam T,Wong C,et al. Is hand,foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?[J]. Epidemiol Infect,2010,138(12):1779-1788.
[9]杜志成,张王剑,于石成,等.广东省手足口病气象危险因素阈值效应的研究[J].现代预防医学,2015,42(19):3457-3460.
[10]安庆玉,范雪松,吴隽,等.大连市手足口病与气象因素的相关性研究[J].现代预防医学,2014,41(1):3-6.