经济波动与产业结构合理化的相互作用关系研究
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摘要
对于产业结构合理化和经济波动的关系,国内学者们多是从实证角度研究,发现产业结构合理化对经济波动有较弱的抑制作用,这一结论需要理论论证并深入扩展。首先从理论上论证二者关系可知,一是产业结构合理化本身不能引起经济的波动,但它却影响经济波动的幅度。当经济受到负向冲击时,产业结构合理化能够抑制经济波动的幅度;当经济受到正向冲击时,产业结构合理化能够加剧经济波动的幅度,而不是学界普遍认为的抑制经济波动。二是经济波动对产业结构合理化程度的提高作用不确定。其次通过格兰杰因果检验,状态空间嵌套门限回归模型从实证的角度验证了结论的正确性。最后提出相关政策建议。
The relationship between the rationalization of industrial structure and economic fluctuation, domestic scholars mostly from the perspective of empirical research found that the rationalization of industrial structure has a weak inhibitory effect on economic fluctuations, this conclusion needs theoretical proof and in-depth expansion..This paper first demonstrates the relationship between the two in theory. The conclusions are as follows: first, the rationalization of industrial structure itself can not cause economic fluctuations, but it affects the extent of economic fluctuations.When the economy is under negative impact, the rationalization of industrial structure can restrain the range of economic fluctuation, and when the economy is under positive impact, the rationalization of industrial structure can increase the range of economic fluctuation, rather than the commonly thought in academic circles to restrain the economic fluctuation.Second, the effect of economic fluctuation on the rationalization of industrial structure is uncertain. Secondly, through Granger causality test, the state space nested threshold regression model verifies the correctness of the theoretical conclusion from the empirical point of view. Finally, on the basis of conclusions, the paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
The relationship between the rationalization of industrial structure and economic fluctuation, domestic scholars mostly from the perspective of empirical research found that the rationalization of industrial structure has a weak inhibitory effect on economic fluctuations, this conclusion needs theoretical proof and in-depth expansion..This paper first demonstrates the relationship between the two in theory. The conclusions are as follows: first, the rationalization of industrial structure itself can not cause economic fluctuations, but it affects the extent of economic fluctuations.When the economy is under negative impact, the rationalization of industrial structure can restrain the range of economic fluctuation, and when the economy is under positive impact, the rationalization of industrial structure can increase the range of economic fluctuation, rather than the commonly thought in academic circles to restrain the economic fluctuation.Second, the effect of economic fluctuation on the rationalization of industrial structure is uncertain. Secondly, through Granger causality test, the state space nested threshold regression model verifies the correctness of the theoretical conclusion from the empirical point of view. Finally, on the basis of conclusions, the paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
引文
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[9]赵旺.江苏产业结构升级对区域经济增长的影响——基于产业结构高级化和合理化的视角[J].公共财政研究,2017(5):83-91.
[10]黄新华,于潇.环境规制影响经济发展的政策工具检验——基于企业技术创新和产业结构优化视角的分析[J].河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):42-48.
[11]方劲松,徐晓伟,李虹含.突发冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响——基于DSGE模型的分析[J].经济问题,2018(8):40-46.
[12]姜照华,马娇.结构性改革和创新驱动对中国经济增长作用的DSGE分析[J].工业技术经济,2018(11):3-11.
[2]EGGERS A,IOANNIDES Y.The role of output composition in the stabilization of U.S.output growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006(3):585-595.
[3]ACEMOGLU D,CARVALHO V M,OZDAGLAR A,et al.The network origins of aggregate fluctuations[J].Economitrica,2012,80(5):1977-2016.
[4]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16.
[5]李强.产业结构变动加剧还是抑制经济波动——基于中国的实证分析[J].经济与管理研究,2012(7):9-37.
[6]彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013(3):91-100.
[7]王筱欣,蒋睿.中国产业结构变动对经济波动影响实证探析[J].商业经济研究,2015(6):114-115.
[8]高志刚,王彦芳.哈萨克斯坦产业结构合理化与经济增长研究——兼谈中哈产能合作的思路[J].克拉玛依学刊,2017,7(1):26-32+2.
[9]赵旺.江苏产业结构升级对区域经济增长的影响——基于产业结构高级化和合理化的视角[J].公共财政研究,2017(5):83-91.
[10]黄新华,于潇.环境规制影响经济发展的政策工具检验——基于企业技术创新和产业结构优化视角的分析[J].河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):42-48.
[11]方劲松,徐晓伟,李虹含.突发冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响——基于DSGE模型的分析[J].经济问题,2018(8):40-46.
[12]姜照华,马娇.结构性改革和创新驱动对中国经济增长作用的DSGE分析[J].工业技术经济,2018(11):3-11.