东北地区县域老年人口高龄化空间分异特征及驱动因素研究
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摘要
基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据,运用高龄人口比重等指标和空间自相关等方法,分析东北地区县域老年人口高龄化的空间分异特征,并利用地理探测器方法分析其驱动因素。研究表明:①10 a间高龄化水平升级的态势明显,高龄化区域呈蔓延式扩散。高龄化在省级行政区间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在显著差异。②10 a间高龄化的变动趋势差异显著,但长期以来形成的高龄化的总体空间格局较为稳定。③县际间高龄化呈现较强的正的空间自相关性,空间聚集特征明显。高龄化的空间格局具有以热点区为中心,逐渐向边缘区过渡的"中心-外围"的空间梯度差异特征。④高龄化是老年人口年龄结构继承性和迟滞性的体现,自然环境和社会经济是影响高龄化空间分异的基础性因素,可以引导和制约高龄化空间分异的程度和方向。
Advanced age is not only a reflection of the original intention of aging, but also a new form of aging that reflects the phenomenon of human longevity. It is an inevitable outcome of the aging process to a certain stage. A profound understanding of the scientific connotation of aging and revealing the evolutionary characteristics of the aging of time and space have important theoretical and practical values for us to actively respond to challenges and grasp development opportunities in an aging society. Northeastern China is one of the most prominent areas of population structural problems, and the aging population is becoming more and more obvious, which is representative in the whole country. Therefore, this article uses the data from the 2000 and 2010 census to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of the elderly population in Northeastern China through the methods of proportion of the advanced age population, concentration, and spatial autocorrelation. We also use geographical detector-based and coefficient of variation methods to examine the variability of the driving factors. Research shows that: 1) In 2000, the advanced age population accounted for 11.32% of the Northeastern China. In 2010, however, the advanced age population accounted for 15.84% of the Northeastern China. The advanced age population proportion upgrade trend obviously, aging area spread type diffusion. There are differences between different levels of the provincial level administrative regions, between urban and rural areas, between ethnic autonomous areas and non-ethnic autonomous regions, between poverty and non-ethnic autonomous areas, and the direction of difference changes. 2) There is a significant difference in the variation trend of the advanced age population in 10 years, but the overall spatial pattern of the advanced age population has been stable for a long time. 3) There is a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering features. The spatial pattern of the advanced age population has the characteristics of the spatial gradient difference between the center and the periphery. 4) The spatial pattern of the advanced age of counties in the Northeastern China is the result of multiple factors driving together. The intrinsic role of population age structure, the basic role of natural geographical environment and the complex role of social and economic environment enhance their driving function through interaction. Population age structure has the characteristics of historical inheritance and hysteresis, natural geographical environment to guide and restrict the advanced age space differentiation pattern, the basis of social and economic development can change the aging degree and direction of spatial differentiation.
Advanced age is not only a reflection of the original intention of aging, but also a new form of aging that reflects the phenomenon of human longevity. It is an inevitable outcome of the aging process to a certain stage. A profound understanding of the scientific connotation of aging and revealing the evolutionary characteristics of the aging of time and space have important theoretical and practical values for us to actively respond to challenges and grasp development opportunities in an aging society. Northeastern China is one of the most prominent areas of population structural problems, and the aging population is becoming more and more obvious, which is representative in the whole country. Therefore, this article uses the data from the 2000 and 2010 census to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of the elderly population in Northeastern China through the methods of proportion of the advanced age population, concentration, and spatial autocorrelation. We also use geographical detector-based and coefficient of variation methods to examine the variability of the driving factors. Research shows that: 1) In 2000, the advanced age population accounted for 11.32% of the Northeastern China. In 2010, however, the advanced age population accounted for 15.84% of the Northeastern China. The advanced age population proportion upgrade trend obviously, aging area spread type diffusion. There are differences between different levels of the provincial level administrative regions, between urban and rural areas, between ethnic autonomous areas and non-ethnic autonomous regions, between poverty and non-ethnic autonomous areas, and the direction of difference changes. 2) There is a significant difference in the variation trend of the advanced age population in 10 years, but the overall spatial pattern of the advanced age population has been stable for a long time. 3) There is a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering features. The spatial pattern of the advanced age population has the characteristics of the spatial gradient difference between the center and the periphery. 4) The spatial pattern of the advanced age of counties in the Northeastern China is the result of multiple factors driving together. The intrinsic role of population age structure, the basic role of natural geographical environment and the complex role of social and economic environment enhance their driving function through interaction. Population age structure has the characteristics of historical inheritance and hysteresis, natural geographical environment to guide and restrict the advanced age space differentiation pattern, the basis of social and economic development can change the aging degree and direction of spatial differentiation.
引文
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[28]Rogers A,Woodward J A.Tempos of elderly age and geographical concentration[J].The Professional Geographer,1992,44(1):72-83.
[29]Anselin L.Spatial econometrics:Methods and models[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[30]Getis A,Ord J K.The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J].Geographical Analysis,1992,24(3):189-206.
[31]Wang J F,Li X H,Christakos G et al.Geographical detectorsbased health risk assessment and its application in the neural tube defects study of the He shun Region,China[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[32]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[Wang Jinfeng,Xu Chengdong.Geodetector:Principle and prospective.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[33]王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei,Liu Haimeng et al.Spatial patterns and regional differences of population ageing in China based on the county scale.Progress in Geography,2016,35(8):921-931.].
[34]陈楠,林宗坚,王钦敏.人口经济学中的GIS与定量分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.[Chen Nan,Lin Zongjian,Wang Qinmin.The GIS and quantitative analysis method of population economics.Beijing:Science Press,2007.]
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[2]尹文耀,李芬,姚引妹,等.中国人口的广义高龄化--基于分省模拟的全国层面分析[J].中国社会科学,2017,37(9):113-140+207-208.[Yin Wenyao,Li Fen,Yao Yinmei et al.The generalized aging of China's population:a national analysis based on provincial simulation.Chinese Social Science,2017,37(9):113-140.]
[3]WHO.World report on ageing and health[R].Geneva,Switzerland:WHO,2015.
[4]Zeng Yi,George L K.Population aging and old-age care in China[M]//Dannefer D et al.Sage Handbook of Social Gerontology.London:SAGE publications Ltd,2010.
[5]曾毅.老龄健康影响因素的跨学科研究国际动态[J].科学通报,2011,56(35):2929-2940.[Zeng Yi.A review on international trends in interdisciplinary research of factors affecting healthy aging(in Chinese).Chinese Sci Bull(Chinese Ver),2011,56(35):2929-2940.]
[6]敖荣军,李浩慈,杨振,等.老年人口健康的空间分异及影响因素研究:以湖北省为例[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1218-1228.[Ao Rongjun,Li Haoci,Yang Zhen et al.Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of health level of the elderly population:A case study of Hubei Province.Progress in Geography,2017,36(10):1218-1228.]
[7]Zbigniew Dlugosz.Population Aging in Europe[J].Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences,2011(19):47-55.
[8]Jacobsen LA,Kent M,Lee M et al.America’s Aging Population[J].Population Bulletin,2011(66):1-20.
[9]Richard M Suzman,David P Willis,Kenneth G Manton.The oldest old[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1992.
[10]Yukichika Kawata.Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Longevity in Japan[J].Atlantic Economic Journal 2009,37(1):113-114.
[11]罗淳.关于人口年龄组的重新划分及其蕴意[J].人口研究,2017,41(5):16-25.[Luo Chun.Re-partitioning population age group and its implications.Population Research,2017,41(5):16-25.]
[12]姜向群.中国高龄化发展前景及其影响[J].人口学刊,1994,14(6):18-26.[Jiang Xiangqun.The development prospect and influence of aging population in China.Population Journal,1994,14(6):18-26.]
[13]林宝.世界各地区人口长寿水平的测量和比较分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(1):74-84.[Lin Bao.Measuring and comparing population longevity level across the regions of the world.Population Research,2015,39(1):74-84.]
[14]王桂新,沈甜.上海人口少子高龄化与和谐社会建设[J].华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,56(1):33-42.[Wang Guixin,Shen Tian.Shanghai population of young children with high age and harmonious society.Journal of East China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences),2008,56(1):33-42.]
[15]杨翠迎,冯广刚,任丹凤.人口“双龄化”背景下对我国养老保障制度建设方向调整的思考[J].西北人口,2010,31(3):1-7.[Yang Cuiying,Feng Guanggang,Ren Danfeng.Reorientation of construction of old-age security system in the context of population aging and aging in China.Northwest Population Journal,2010,31(3):1-7.]
[16]王琳.中国高龄化趋势及原因的国际比较分析[J].人口与经济,2004,25(1):6-11.[Wang Lin.International comparison study on the aged trend and reasons in China.Population&Economics,2004,25(1):6-11.]
[17]Wang S,Luo K,Liu Y.Spatio-temporal distribution of human lifespan in China[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5(1):832-846.
[18]Wang S,Luo K,Liu Y et al.Economic level and human longevity:Spatial and temporal variation and correlation analysis of per capita GDP and longevity indicators in China[J].Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics,2015,61(1):93-102.
[19]曾通刚,赵媛,许昕.中国人口高龄化空间格局演化及影响因素研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(6):71-79.[Zeng Tongang,Zhao Yuan,Xu Xin.Research on spatial evolution pattern of hyper-aged population and its influence factors in China.Geography and Geo-Information Science,2017,33(6):71-79.]
[20]许昕,赵媛,张新林,等.中国县域高龄人口地域分异特征及环境成因[J].地理科学,2018,38(9):1449-1457.[Xu Xin,ZhaoYuan,Zhang Xinlin et al.Regional differentiation characteristics and environmental causes of elderly population in China based on county scale.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(9):1449-1457.]
[21]陆杰华,汪洪波,潘漪.中国县(区)人口长寿水平的影响因素分析[J].人口与经济,2004,25(5):13-18.[Lu Jiehua,Wang Hongbo,Pan Yi.Analysis on the influencing factors of the population's longevity in China's Counties.Population&Economics,2004,25(5):13-18.]
[22]张晓青,任建兰.基于“六普”数据的山东省长寿水平空间分布及影响因素研究[J].西北人口,2013,24(2):104-109.[Zhang Xiaoqing,Ren Jianlan.Research on spatial distribution and factors of longevity level in Shandong province based on the sixth census data.Northwest Population Journal,2013,24(2):104-109.]
[23]国家统计局.中国人口普查分县资料(2000,2010)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003,2012.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.Tabulation on the 2000 and 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China by County.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003,2012.]
[24]黑龙江省统计局.黑龙江统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.Heilongjiang statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012.]
[25]吉林省统计局.吉林统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.Jilin statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012.]
[26]辽宁省统计局.辽宁统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.Liaoning statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012.]
[27]内蒙古统计局.内蒙古自治区统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.Inner Mongolia statistical yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012.]
[28]Rogers A,Woodward J A.Tempos of elderly age and geographical concentration[J].The Professional Geographer,1992,44(1):72-83.
[29]Anselin L.Spatial econometrics:Methods and models[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[30]Getis A,Ord J K.The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics[J].Geographical Analysis,1992,24(3):189-206.
[31]Wang J F,Li X H,Christakos G et al.Geographical detectorsbased health risk assessment and its application in the neural tube defects study of the He shun Region,China[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[32]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[Wang Jinfeng,Xu Chengdong.Geodetector:Principle and prospective.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[33]王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.[Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei,Liu Haimeng et al.Spatial patterns and regional differences of population ageing in China based on the county scale.Progress in Geography,2016,35(8):921-931.].
[34]陈楠,林宗坚,王钦敏.人口经济学中的GIS与定量分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.[Chen Nan,Lin Zongjian,Wang Qinmin.The GIS and quantitative analysis method of population economics.Beijing:Science Press,2007.]
[35]田雪原.中国老年人口[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2007.[Tian Xueyuan.China's aging population.Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2007.]
[36]Mc Carthy K F.The elderly population changing spatial distribution:Patterns of change since 1960[M].Santa Monica:Rand Corporation,1983.
[37]王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):1001-1016.[Wang Lucang,Wu Rongwei,Li Wei.Spatial-temporal patterns of population aging on China's urban agglomerations.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6):1001-1016.]
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