萌芽期颠覆性技术识别研究
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摘要
从颠覆性技术成长周期入手,根据萌芽期颠覆性技术特点,采用基于创新性、独创性与功能分析的识别方法,在技术创新没有造成市场显著变化时实现预警决策。首先进行技术生命周期分析,随后利用创新性和独创性特点衡量技术颠覆性,排除渐进性技术干扰,最后运用功能分析方法研究技术新功能对未来市场的影响。以工业机器人专利技术领域进行实证,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。
Starting from the growth cycle of disruptive technology,based on the characteristics of disruptive technology on emerging stage,this article proposes an identification process towards novelty,uniqueness,function analysis,this method is helpful for the researchers to discover the disruptive technology before it caused great influence to the market.Firstly,discover the technology which is at emerging stage,secondly,identify potential disruptive technology through scientific and technological factors,incremental technologies are excluded;subsequently,apply functional analysis on the result,and discuss the influence of new technology function to the future market;finally,validity testament is organized using patent data in field of industrial robot,verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
Starting from the growth cycle of disruptive technology,based on the characteristics of disruptive technology on emerging stage,this article proposes an identification process towards novelty,uniqueness,function analysis,this method is helpful for the researchers to discover the disruptive technology before it caused great influence to the market.Firstly,discover the technology which is at emerging stage,secondly,identify potential disruptive technology through scientific and technological factors,incremental technologies are excluded;subsequently,apply functional analysis on the result,and discuss the influence of new technology function to the future market;finally,validity testament is organized using patent data in field of industrial robot,verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
引文
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[10]MOMENI A,ROST K,PHILLIPS F.Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patentdevelopment paths and topic modeling[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2016,104:16-29.
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[14]苏敬勤,刘建华,王智琦,等.颠覆性技术的演化轨迹及早期识别---以智能手机等技术为例[J].科研管理,2016,37(3):13-20.
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[16]PHAAL R,FARRUKH C J P,PROBERT D R.Technology roadmapping---aplanning framework for evolution and revolution[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2004,71(1):5-26.
[17]LEE K,LIM C.Technological regimes,catching-up and leapfrogging:findings from the Korean industries[J].Research Policy,2001,30(3):459-483.
[18]APREDA R,BONACCORSI A,DELL'ORLETTA F,et al.Functional technology foresight---a novel methodology to identify emerging technologies[J].European Journal of Futures Research,2016,4(1):13.
[19]李春燕,黄斌,LICHUNYAN,等.利用S曲线法判断3D打印工艺技术生命周期[J].科技与经济,2017(2):91-95.
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[22]FLEMING L.Breakthroughs and the"long tail"of innovation[J].Mit Sloan Management Review,2010,49(1):69-74+93.
[23]HARGADON A B.Brokering knowledge:linking learning and innovation[J].Research in Organizational Behavior,2002,24(02):41-85.
[24]马磊,宋建玮.IPC分类法在科技查新工作中的应用[J].图书馆学刊,2012(3):32-34.
[25]VERHOEVEN D,BAKKER J,VEUGELERS R.Measuring technological novelty with patent-based indicators[J].Research Policy,2016,45(3):707-723.
[26]EGLI F,JOHNSTONE N,MENON C.Identifying and inducing breakthrough inventions:an application related to climate change mitigation[J].Oecd Science Technology&Industry Working Papers,2015.
[27]Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies(CFFDT).Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies[EB/OL].http://xueshu.baidu.com/usercenter/paper/show?paperid=ae7f0c3f4d489fe8581bc4f94353b467&site=xueshu_se,2010.
[28]APREDA R,BONACCORSI A,DELL'ORLETTA F,et al.Functional technology foresight:a novel methodology to identify emerging technologies[J].European Journal of Futures Research,2016,4(1):13.
[29]ANNA BERGEK,STAFFAN JACOBSSON,BJRN ASANDN.'Legitimation'and'development of positive externalities':two key processes in the formation phase of technological innovation systems[J].Technology Analysis&Strategic Management,2008,20(5):575-592.
[30]YOON J,PARK H,KIM K.Identifying technological competition trends for R&D planning using dynamic patent maps:SAO-based content analysis[J].Scientometrics,2013,94(1):313-331.
[31]齐严.商业模式创新研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学,2010.
[32]International Federation of Robotics.Executive summary world robotics industrial robots 2016[EB/OL].https://ifr.org/free-downloads/.2016-10-12/2017-07-05.
[33]中华人民共和国工业和信息化部.机器人产业发展规划(2016-2020年)[Z].2016-04-28.
[34]李萍.专利已超6万件工业机器人时代如何专利布局[J].创新时代,2015(9):32-34.
[2]DIXON T,EAMES M,BRITNELL J,et al.Urban retrofitting:identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2014(89):131-144.
[3]CHRISTENSEN C.The innovator's dilemma:when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Harvard Business Review Press,2013.
[4]CARLSEN H,DREBORG K H,GODMAN M,et al.Assessing socially disruptive technological change[J].Technology in Society,2010,32(3):209-218.
[5]MADS BORUP,NIK BROWN,KORNELIA KONRAD,et al.The sociology of expectations in science and technology[J].Technology Analysis&Strategic Management,2006,18(3-4):285-298.
[6]GANGULY A,NILCHIANI R,FARR J V.Defining a set of metrics to evaluate the potential disruptiveness of a technology[J].Engineering Management Journal,2010,22(1):34-44.
[7]SCHOENMAKERS W,DUYSTERS G.The technological origins of radical inventions[J].Research Policy,2010,39(8):1051-1059.
[8]GAMBARDELLA A,HARHOFF D,VERSPAGEN B.The value of European patents[J].European Management Review,2008,5(2):69-84.
[9]HALL B H,JAFFE A,TRAJTENBERG M.Market value and patent citations[J].RAND Journal of economics,2005:16-38.
[10]MOMENI A,ROST K,PHILLIPS F.Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patentdevelopment paths and topic modeling[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2016,104:16-29.
[11]CHEN C,ZHANG J,GUO R S.The D-Day,V-Day,and bleak days of a disruptive technology:a new model for exante evaluation of the timing of technology disruption[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,251(2):562-574.
[12]BUCHANAN B,CORKEN R.A toolkit for the systematic analysis of patent data to assess a potentially disruptive technology[EB/OL].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265430234_A_toolkit_for_the_systematic_analysis_of_patent_data_to_assess_a_potentially_disruptive_technology,2010.
[13]黄鲁成,成雨,吴菲菲,等.关于颠覆性技术识别框架的探索[J].科学学研究,2015,33(5):654-664.
[14]苏敬勤,刘建华,王智琦,等.颠覆性技术的演化轨迹及早期识别---以智能手机等技术为例[J].科研管理,2016,37(3):13-20.
[15]FOSTER R N.Working the s-curve-assessing technological threats(reprinted from innovation,1986)[J].Research Management,1986,29(4):17-20.
[16]PHAAL R,FARRUKH C J P,PROBERT D R.Technology roadmapping---aplanning framework for evolution and revolution[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2004,71(1):5-26.
[17]LEE K,LIM C.Technological regimes,catching-up and leapfrogging:findings from the Korean industries[J].Research Policy,2001,30(3):459-483.
[18]APREDA R,BONACCORSI A,DELL'ORLETTA F,et al.Functional technology foresight---a novel methodology to identify emerging technologies[J].European Journal of Futures Research,2016,4(1):13.
[19]李春燕,黄斌,LICHUNYAN,等.利用S曲线法判断3D打印工艺技术生命周期[J].科技与经济,2017(2):91-95.
[20]ARTHUR W B.The structure of invention[J].Research Policy,2007,36(2):274-287.
[21]ARTHUR W B.The nature of technology:what it is and how it evolves[J].Penguin Books,2009.
[22]FLEMING L.Breakthroughs and the"long tail"of innovation[J].Mit Sloan Management Review,2010,49(1):69-74+93.
[23]HARGADON A B.Brokering knowledge:linking learning and innovation[J].Research in Organizational Behavior,2002,24(02):41-85.
[24]马磊,宋建玮.IPC分类法在科技查新工作中的应用[J].图书馆学刊,2012(3):32-34.
[25]VERHOEVEN D,BAKKER J,VEUGELERS R.Measuring technological novelty with patent-based indicators[J].Research Policy,2016,45(3):707-723.
[26]EGLI F,JOHNSTONE N,MENON C.Identifying and inducing breakthrough inventions:an application related to climate change mitigation[J].Oecd Science Technology&Industry Working Papers,2015.
[27]Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies(CFFDT).Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies[EB/OL].http://xueshu.baidu.com/usercenter/paper/show?paperid=ae7f0c3f4d489fe8581bc4f94353b467&site=xueshu_se,2010.
[28]APREDA R,BONACCORSI A,DELL'ORLETTA F,et al.Functional technology foresight:a novel methodology to identify emerging technologies[J].European Journal of Futures Research,2016,4(1):13.
[29]ANNA BERGEK,STAFFAN JACOBSSON,BJRN ASANDN.'Legitimation'and'development of positive externalities':two key processes in the formation phase of technological innovation systems[J].Technology Analysis&Strategic Management,2008,20(5):575-592.
[30]YOON J,PARK H,KIM K.Identifying technological competition trends for R&D planning using dynamic patent maps:SAO-based content analysis[J].Scientometrics,2013,94(1):313-331.
[31]齐严.商业模式创新研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学,2010.
[32]International Federation of Robotics.Executive summary world robotics industrial robots 2016[EB/OL].https://ifr.org/free-downloads/.2016-10-12/2017-07-05.
[33]中华人民共和国工业和信息化部.机器人产业发展规划(2016-2020年)[Z].2016-04-28.
[34]李萍.专利已超6万件工业机器人时代如何专利布局[J].创新时代,2015(9):32-34.