辽宁长历时暴雨中尺度对流系统特征分析
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摘要
选取发生在辽宁的3次典型长历时暴雨过程,利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析、FY-2E黑体亮温TBB、多普勒天气雷达和自动气象站等资料,分析了降水实况、天气形势背景、卫星红外云图、雷达回波的结构和强度变化的代表性特征。结果表明:辽宁长历时暴雨是在有利于产生暴雨的大尺度环流背景下,异常稳定的形势场导致冷暖空气在某一地区长时间相互对峙而形成的。该型暴雨的降水实况具有雨强变化小、强降水无明显阶段性特征和雨强变化大、强降水具有明显阶段性两种特征。一般性对流云团、暖云和深对流云团均可造成该型暴雨,其中一般性对流云团的云顶亮温变化幅度小,在-47～-36℃,暖云的云顶亮温在-8～3℃,深对流云团的云顶亮温-68～-50℃且强降水发生在云顶亮温低值中心偏向温度梯度大值区一侧。该型暴雨的雷达反射率因子强回波质心较低,表现为上游回波同一方向连续移入形成的"列车效应"、本地生成回波并不断加强以及不同方向的强回波先后移入影响三种类型,小时平均回波强度及其变化对降水强度和趋势有较好的指示意义。需要特别关注副热带高压西侧低层高能高湿、凝结高度低、整层近乎饱和且又具有局地地形抬升触发条件地区的暖云强降水的分析和监测。
Three typical long duration torrential rain events in Liaoning Province are selected. Based on the data of NCEP/NCAR 1°X 1° reanalysis, FY-2 E black body temperature(TBB for short), Doppler weather radar and automatic weather station, the representative characteristics of changes in precipitation observation, the background of synoptic situation, the satellite infrared cloud image, the structure and intensity of radar echoes are analyzed. The results show that long duration torrential rain that occurs in Liaoning Province are caused by long-term continuous interaction of warm and cold air masses in certain areas under the background of large-scale synoptic environment conducive to torrential rain. This type of torrential rain has two types of characteristics. One is little change in precipitation intensity, and no obvious periodical characteristics of torrential rain,and the another is strong change in precipitation intensity, and obvious periodical characteristics of torrential rain. The general convective clouds, warm clouds and deep convective clouds can cause torrential rain, in which the TBB of general convective clouds varies between-47℃and-36℃, the TBB of warm clouds is between-8℃ and 3℃, the TBB of deep convective clouds is between-68℃ and-50 ℃, and torrential rain occurs in the center of the low TBB to the large temperature gradient zone on one side. This type of torrential rain shows that the upper stream radar echoes continuously move into the downstream to form a "train effect", the locally generated and intensified strong echoes and the strong radar echoes generated from the upstream maintain intensities and step into the downstream. The hourly average radar echo intensity and its change have a good indication of precipitation intensity and its trend. In particular, special attention should be paid to the analysis and monitoring of warm cloud which contributes to torrential rain in the west side of the subtropical high, high energy and high humidity, low condensation height, the whole almost saturated layer, and the trigger conditions of local topographic uplift.
Three typical long duration torrential rain events in Liaoning Province are selected. Based on the data of NCEP/NCAR 1°X 1° reanalysis, FY-2 E black body temperature(TBB for short), Doppler weather radar and automatic weather station, the representative characteristics of changes in precipitation observation, the background of synoptic situation, the satellite infrared cloud image, the structure and intensity of radar echoes are analyzed. The results show that long duration torrential rain that occurs in Liaoning Province are caused by long-term continuous interaction of warm and cold air masses in certain areas under the background of large-scale synoptic environment conducive to torrential rain. This type of torrential rain has two types of characteristics. One is little change in precipitation intensity, and no obvious periodical characteristics of torrential rain,and the another is strong change in precipitation intensity, and obvious periodical characteristics of torrential rain. The general convective clouds, warm clouds and deep convective clouds can cause torrential rain, in which the TBB of general convective clouds varies between-47℃and-36℃, the TBB of warm clouds is between-8℃ and 3℃, the TBB of deep convective clouds is between-68℃ and-50 ℃, and torrential rain occurs in the center of the low TBB to the large temperature gradient zone on one side. This type of torrential rain shows that the upper stream radar echoes continuously move into the downstream to form a "train effect", the locally generated and intensified strong echoes and the strong radar echoes generated from the upstream maintain intensities and step into the downstream. The hourly average radar echo intensity and its change have a good indication of precipitation intensity and its trend. In particular, special attention should be paid to the analysis and monitoring of warm cloud which contributes to torrential rain in the west side of the subtropical high, high energy and high humidity, low condensation height, the whole almost saturated layer, and the trigger conditions of local topographic uplift.
引文
陈彩珠,高建芸,黄丽娜,等,2016.大气低频变化对福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨影响[J].应用气象学报,27(1):75-84.
东高红,何群英,刘一玮,等,2011.海风锋在渤海西岸局地暴雨过程中的作用[J].气象,37(9):1100-1107.
董全,金荣花,代刊,等,2016.ECMWF集合预报和确定性预报对淮河流域暴雨预报的对比分析[J].气象,42(9):1146-1153.
董颜,刘寿东,王东海,等,2015.GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估[J].气象,41(1):45-51.
杜秉玉,陈钟荣,张卫青,1998.梅雨锋暴雨的Doppler雷达观测研究:边界层中尺度涡旋系统[J].南京气象学院学报,21(2):201-207.
段鹤,夏文梅,苏晓力,等,2014.短时强降水特征统计及临近预警[J].气象,40(10):1194-1206.
冯晋勤,汤达章,曹长尧,2014.福建西部山区短时暴雨雷达回波特征及中小尺度系统分析[J].气象,40(3):297-304.
冯文,符式红,赵付竹,等,2015.近10年海南岛后汛期特大暴雨环流配置及其异常特征[J].气象,41(2)143-152.
符矫兰,马学款,陈涛,等,2017.“16·7”华北极端强降水特征及天气学成因分析[J].气象,43(5):528-539.
何光碧,曾波,郁淑华,等,2016.青藏高原周边地区持续性暴雨特征分析[J].高原气象,35(4):865-874.
金炜昕,李维京,孙丞虎,等,2015.夏季中国中东部不同历时降水时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,20(4):465-476.
孔期,林建,2017.2015年5月19-20日华南地区不同性质暴雨成因和预报分析[J].气象,43(7):792-803.
林爱兰,谷德军,李春晖,等,2015.广东6月持续性暴雨期间的大气环流异常[J].气象学报,73(5):803-818.
刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等,2013.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,39(1):20-27.
刘黎平,阮征,覃丹宇,2004.长江流域梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度结构个例分析[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,34(2):1193-1201.
马学款,符娇兰,曹殿斌,等,2012.海南2008年秋季持续性暴雨过程的物理机制分析[J].气象,38(7):795-803.
钱维宏,蒋宁,杜钧,2016.中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型[J].气象,42(6):674-685.
覃卫坚,李耀先,廖雪萍,等,2015.大气低频振荡对广西持续性区域性暴雨的可能影响[J].气象研究与应用,36(3):1-7.
孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等,2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.
孙建华,张小玲,卫捷,等,2005.20世纪90年代华北大暴雨过程特征的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(3):492-506.
孙力,隋波,王晓明,等,2010.我国东北地区夏季暴雨的气候学特征[J].气候与环境研究,15(6):778-786.
王黎娟,任晨平,崔晓鹏,等,2013.“碧利斯”暴雨增幅高分辨率数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,36(2):147-157.
王令,王国荣,孙秀忠,等,2012.应用多种探测资料对比分析两次突发性局地强降水[J].气象,38(3):281-290.
王宁,王秀娟,张硕,等,2016.吉林省一场持续性暴雨成因及MCC特征分析[J].气象,42(7):809-818.
王亦平,陆维松,潘益农,等,2008.淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和β中尺度对流系统的特征分析[J].气象学报,66(2):167-176.
吴滨,文明章,李玲,等,2015.福建省不同短历时暴雨时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,34(2):153-159.
徐珺,杨舒楠,孙军,等,2014.北方一次暖区大暴雨强降水成因探讨[J].气象,40(12):1455-1463.
徐明,赵玉春,高琦,等,2015.偏东气流诱发川西高原东侧两次对流暴雨过程的对比分析[J].气象,41(12):1477-1487.
徐明,赵玉春,王晓芳,等,2016.华南前汛期持续性暴雨统计特征及环流分型研究[J].暴雨灾害,35(2):109-118.
张家国,岳阳,牛淑贞,等,2010.一次长历时特大暴雨多普勒雷达中尺度分析[J].气象,36(4):21-26.
张沛源,陈荣林,1995.多普勒速度图上的暴雨判据研究[J].应用气象学报,6(3):373-378.
张小玲,张涛,刘鑫华,等,2010.中尺度天气的高空地面综合图分析[J].气象,36(7):143-150.
张云惠,李海燕,蔺喜禄,等,2015.南疆西部持续性暴雨环流背景及天气尺度的动力过程分析[J].气象,41(7):816-824.
赵玮,王建捷,2008.北京2006年夏季接连两场暴雨的观测对比分析[J].气象,34(8):3-14.
郑媛媛,张小玲,朱红芳,等,2009.2007年7月8日特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,35(2):3-7.
Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Wang Jianjie,2008.Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing[J].Chin Sci Bull,53(12):1933-1936.
Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Yuan Weihua,et al,2011.Changes in durationrelated characteristics of late-summer precipitation over eastern China in the past 40 years[J].J Climate,24(21):5683-5690.DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00009.1.
Maddox R A,Chappell C F,Hoxit L R,1979.Synoptic and meso-a aspects of flash flooding events[J].Bull Amer Met Soc,60:115-123.
Yu Rucong,Xu Youping,Zhou Tianjun,et al,2007.Relation between rainfall duration and diurnal variation in the warm season precipitation over central eastern China[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(13):L13703.DOI:10.1029/2007GL030315.
Yuan Weihua,Yu Rucong,Chen Haoming,et al,2010.Subseasonal characteristics of diurnal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over central eastern China[J].J Climate,23(24):6684-6695.DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3805.1.
东高红,何群英,刘一玮,等,2011.海风锋在渤海西岸局地暴雨过程中的作用[J].气象,37(9):1100-1107.
董全,金荣花,代刊,等,2016.ECMWF集合预报和确定性预报对淮河流域暴雨预报的对比分析[J].气象,42(9):1146-1153.
董颜,刘寿东,王东海,等,2015.GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估[J].气象,41(1):45-51.
杜秉玉,陈钟荣,张卫青,1998.梅雨锋暴雨的Doppler雷达观测研究:边界层中尺度涡旋系统[J].南京气象学院学报,21(2):201-207.
段鹤,夏文梅,苏晓力,等,2014.短时强降水特征统计及临近预警[J].气象,40(10):1194-1206.
冯晋勤,汤达章,曹长尧,2014.福建西部山区短时暴雨雷达回波特征及中小尺度系统分析[J].气象,40(3):297-304.
冯文,符式红,赵付竹,等,2015.近10年海南岛后汛期特大暴雨环流配置及其异常特征[J].气象,41(2)143-152.
符矫兰,马学款,陈涛,等,2017.“16·7”华北极端强降水特征及天气学成因分析[J].气象,43(5):528-539.
何光碧,曾波,郁淑华,等,2016.青藏高原周边地区持续性暴雨特征分析[J].高原气象,35(4):865-874.
金炜昕,李维京,孙丞虎,等,2015.夏季中国中东部不同历时降水时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,20(4):465-476.
孔期,林建,2017.2015年5月19-20日华南地区不同性质暴雨成因和预报分析[J].气象,43(7):792-803.
林爱兰,谷德军,李春晖,等,2015.广东6月持续性暴雨期间的大气环流异常[J].气象学报,73(5):803-818.
刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等,2013.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,39(1):20-27.
刘黎平,阮征,覃丹宇,2004.长江流域梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度结构个例分析[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,34(2):1193-1201.
马学款,符娇兰,曹殿斌,等,2012.海南2008年秋季持续性暴雨过程的物理机制分析[J].气象,38(7):795-803.
钱维宏,蒋宁,杜钧,2016.中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型[J].气象,42(6):674-685.
覃卫坚,李耀先,廖雪萍,等,2015.大气低频振荡对广西持续性区域性暴雨的可能影响[J].气象研究与应用,36(3):1-7.
孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等,2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.
孙建华,张小玲,卫捷,等,2005.20世纪90年代华北大暴雨过程特征的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(3):492-506.
孙力,隋波,王晓明,等,2010.我国东北地区夏季暴雨的气候学特征[J].气候与环境研究,15(6):778-786.
王黎娟,任晨平,崔晓鹏,等,2013.“碧利斯”暴雨增幅高分辨率数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,36(2):147-157.
王令,王国荣,孙秀忠,等,2012.应用多种探测资料对比分析两次突发性局地强降水[J].气象,38(3):281-290.
王宁,王秀娟,张硕,等,2016.吉林省一场持续性暴雨成因及MCC特征分析[J].气象,42(7):809-818.
王亦平,陆维松,潘益农,等,2008.淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和β中尺度对流系统的特征分析[J].气象学报,66(2):167-176.
吴滨,文明章,李玲,等,2015.福建省不同短历时暴雨时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,34(2):153-159.
徐珺,杨舒楠,孙军,等,2014.北方一次暖区大暴雨强降水成因探讨[J].气象,40(12):1455-1463.
徐明,赵玉春,高琦,等,2015.偏东气流诱发川西高原东侧两次对流暴雨过程的对比分析[J].气象,41(12):1477-1487.
徐明,赵玉春,王晓芳,等,2016.华南前汛期持续性暴雨统计特征及环流分型研究[J].暴雨灾害,35(2):109-118.
张家国,岳阳,牛淑贞,等,2010.一次长历时特大暴雨多普勒雷达中尺度分析[J].气象,36(4):21-26.
张沛源,陈荣林,1995.多普勒速度图上的暴雨判据研究[J].应用气象学报,6(3):373-378.
张小玲,张涛,刘鑫华,等,2010.中尺度天气的高空地面综合图分析[J].气象,36(7):143-150.
张云惠,李海燕,蔺喜禄,等,2015.南疆西部持续性暴雨环流背景及天气尺度的动力过程分析[J].气象,41(7):816-824.
赵玮,王建捷,2008.北京2006年夏季接连两场暴雨的观测对比分析[J].气象,34(8):3-14.
郑媛媛,张小玲,朱红芳,等,2009.2007年7月8日特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,35(2):3-7.
Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Wang Jianjie,2008.Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing[J].Chin Sci Bull,53(12):1933-1936.
Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Yuan Weihua,et al,2011.Changes in durationrelated characteristics of late-summer precipitation over eastern China in the past 40 years[J].J Climate,24(21):5683-5690.DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00009.1.
Maddox R A,Chappell C F,Hoxit L R,1979.Synoptic and meso-a aspects of flash flooding events[J].Bull Amer Met Soc,60:115-123.
Yu Rucong,Xu Youping,Zhou Tianjun,et al,2007.Relation between rainfall duration and diurnal variation in the warm season precipitation over central eastern China[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(13):L13703.DOI:10.1029/2007GL030315.
Yuan Weihua,Yu Rucong,Chen Haoming,et al,2010.Subseasonal characteristics of diurnal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over central eastern China[J].J Climate,23(24):6684-6695.DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3805.1.