人工长白落叶松枝条存活模型
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摘要
【目的】木材的质量决定了它在生产中的价值,优质的木材往往可以获得更高的利润。但是树干上节子的大小会严重影响木材的质量,而节子是在枝条死亡后形成的,所以通过研究枝条属性,寻找合适的营林控制方式将对提高木材质量具有重要意义。【方法】本研究根据黑龙江省佳木斯市孟家岗林场、林口林业局和东京城林业局的10块长白落叶松人工林标准地中的70株落叶松枝解析数据,分别建立传统的Logistic基础模型以及相应的广义线性混合模型(GLMM)来预测该地区长白落叶松的枝条存活状况,并对模型进行拟合效果评价和独立性检验。【结果】枝条存活状态受树木自然整枝程度、枝条生长位置和树木间竞争等因素的影响,在模型中,冠长率(CR)可以反映树木自然整枝程度,其参数值为正说明树木自然整枝程度较低时,枝条大多处于存活状态。枝条相对位置(BRH)和枝条轮数(WHOLE)可以反映枝条的生长位置,其参数值为负说明处于树冠上部的枝条由于受光充分而长势良好,而处于树冠下部的枝条由于相互遮蔽而死亡。树高胸径比(HD)可以反映林木间的竞争情况,其参数值为负说明激烈的竞争环境会使枝条存活概率降低。AIC、RMSE、AUC和模型判断正确率可以用于比较基础模型和广义线性混合模型的预测效果。经计算,广义线性混合模型的AIC=801.67,RMSE=0.126,均小于基础模型,AUC=0.997 5,模型判断正确率为97.9%,均大于基础模型,说明广义线性混合模型可以有效解决不同个体间存在差异的问题,有利于提高枝条存活状态的预测精度。独立性检验结果显示模型预测精度良好。【结论】本研究可为长白落叶松人工林确定合理的经营措施,提高木材质量提供理论依据。
[Objective]The quality of wood determines its value in production,and high-quality wood tends to earn higher profits.However,the size of the knot on the trunk can seriously affect the quality of wood,and the knot is formed after the death of branch.Therefore,by studying the properties of branches,looking for suitable ways of controlling the forest is of great significance to improve the quality of wood.[Method]Based on the branch analysis data of 70 trees selected from 10 sample plots of Larix olgensis plantations in Mengjiagang Forest Farm of Jiamusi City,Linkou Forestry Bureau and Dongjingcheng Forestry Bureau,Heilongjiang Province of northeastern China,this paper develops classic Logistic model using traditional method and generalized linear mixed models(GLMM) to predict thebranch survival of planted Larix olgensis tree.Goodness of fit tests and independence tests were implemented for all models.[Result]The branch survival was affected by many factors,like the degree of natural pruning of trees,the growth position of branches and the competition among trees.In the model,CR reflected the degree of natural pruning of trees,and the parameter value positive indicated that the natural pruning degree of trees was low and the branches were mostly in the living state.BRH and WHOLE reflected the growth position of branches in trees,and those negative parameter values showed that the branches in the upper part of the canopy grew well due to the sufficient light,and the branches in the lower part of the canopy died early due to mutual shadowing.HD reflected the competition between trees,and the negative parameter value showed that the intense competitive environment could reduce the survival probability of branches.AICs,RMSEs,AUCs and the correctness of model judgment can be used to compare the prediction effect of basic model and GLMM.The calculated AIC=801.67,RMSE=0.126,AUC=0.997 5 and the correctness of model judgment was 97.9% of GLMM.GLMM had obvious smaller AIC,smaller RMSE,larger AUC and larger correct rate.Thus,GLMM could efficiently solve the problem of the variation among different individuals,and improve the accuracy of predicting the branch survival status.The accuracy of the model was good in the independence test.[Conclusion]This study would provide the theoretical basis for determining reasonable management measures and improving the timber quality for Larix olgensis plantation.
[Objective]The quality of wood determines its value in production,and high-quality wood tends to earn higher profits.However,the size of the knot on the trunk can seriously affect the quality of wood,and the knot is formed after the death of branch.Therefore,by studying the properties of branches,looking for suitable ways of controlling the forest is of great significance to improve the quality of wood.[Method]Based on the branch analysis data of 70 trees selected from 10 sample plots of Larix olgensis plantations in Mengjiagang Forest Farm of Jiamusi City,Linkou Forestry Bureau and Dongjingcheng Forestry Bureau,Heilongjiang Province of northeastern China,this paper develops classic Logistic model using traditional method and generalized linear mixed models(GLMM) to predict thebranch survival of planted Larix olgensis tree.Goodness of fit tests and independence tests were implemented for all models.[Result]The branch survival was affected by many factors,like the degree of natural pruning of trees,the growth position of branches and the competition among trees.In the model,CR reflected the degree of natural pruning of trees,and the parameter value positive indicated that the natural pruning degree of trees was low and the branches were mostly in the living state.BRH and WHOLE reflected the growth position of branches in trees,and those negative parameter values showed that the branches in the upper part of the canopy grew well due to the sufficient light,and the branches in the lower part of the canopy died early due to mutual shadowing.HD reflected the competition between trees,and the negative parameter value showed that the intense competitive environment could reduce the survival probability of branches.AICs,RMSEs,AUCs and the correctness of model judgment can be used to compare the prediction effect of basic model and GLMM.The calculated AIC=801.67,RMSE=0.126,AUC=0.997 5 and the correctness of model judgment was 97.9% of GLMM.GLMM had obvious smaller AIC,smaller RMSE,larger AUC and larger correct rate.Thus,GLMM could efficiently solve the problem of the variation among different individuals,and improve the accuracy of predicting the branch survival status.The accuracy of the model was good in the independence test.[Conclusion]This study would provide the theoretical basis for determining reasonable management measures and improving the timber quality for Larix olgensis plantation.
引文
[1]张天雄.落叶松枝条特征研究概述[J].科技创新与应用,2014(10):255.Zhang T X.A research of larch branches feature[J].Technology Innovation and Application,2014(10):255.
[2]姜立春,潘莹,李耀翔.兴安落叶松枝条特征联立方程组模型及树冠形状模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(6):1-7.Jiang L C,Pan Y,Li Y X.Model systems of branch characteristics and crown profile simulation for Larix gmelinii[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2016,38(6):1--7.
[3]贾炜玮.樟子松人工林枝条生长及节子大小预测模型的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2006.Jia W W.Predicting models of branch growth and knot properties for Mongolian scots pine in plantation[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2006.
[4]Kershaw J A,Maguire D A,Hann D W.Longevity and duration of radial growth in Douglas-fir branches[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,1990,20:1690--1695.
[5]Makinen H,Colin F.Predicting the number,death,and selfpruning of branches in Scots pine[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,1999,29(8):1225-1236.
[6]康萌萌.广义线性混合模型及其SAS实现[J].统计教育,2009(10):50--54.Kang M M.Generalized linear mixed models and implementation with SAS[J].Statistical Thinktank,2009(10):50--54.
[7]姜立春,李凤日,张锐.基于线性混合模型的落叶松枝条基径模型[J].林业科学研究,2012,25(4):464-469.Jiang L C,Li F R,Zhang R.Modeling branch diameter with linear mixed effects for Dahurian larch[J].Forest Research,2012,25(4):464-469.
[8]姜立春,杜书立,李凤日.基于随机效应的兴安落叶松材积生长模拟[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(11):2963--2969.Jiang L C,Du S L,Li F R.Simulation of Larix gmelinii tree volume growth based on random effect[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(11):2963-2969.
[9]董灵波,刘兆刚,李凤日,等.基于线性混合模型的红松人工林一级枝条大小预测模拟[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(9):2447--2456.Dong L B,Liu Z G,Li F R,et al.Primary branch size of Pinus koraiensis plantation:a prediction based on linear mixed effect model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(9):2447--2456.
[10]王曼霖,董利虎,李凤日.基于Possion回归混合效应模型的长白落叶松一级枝数量模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2017,39(11):45--55.Wang M L,Dong L H,Li F R.First-order branch number simulation for Larix olgensis plantation through Poisson regression mixed effect model[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2017,39(11):45--55.
[11]Hein S,Makinen H,Yue C F,et al.Modelling branch characteristics of Norway spruce from wide spacings in Germany[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2007,242:155-164.
[12]张智昌.落叶松人工林枝条生长与节子大小预测模型的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2010.Zhang Z C.Predicting models of branch growth and knot properties for larch plantation[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2010.
[13]卢军,李凤日.樟子松人工林的节子寿命及年轮丢失数[J].林业科学,2007,43(12):16-21.Lu J,Li F R.Long and missing ring of knots in Pinus sylvertris var.mongolica plantation[J].Science Silvae Sinicae,2007,43(12):16--21.
[14]高瑞馨,尹艳豹,王凤友.黑龙江林口林业局森林景观格局特征[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(7):995--1001.Gao R X,Yin Y B,Wang F Y.Characters of forest landscape patterns in Linkou Forestry Bureau of Heilongjiang Province[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2007,26(7):995-1001.
[15]高瑞馨.林口林业局可持续发展综合评价指标体系研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2004.Gao R X.Research on the comprehensive appraisement index system about sustainable development of the Linkou Forestry Bureau[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2004.
[16]徐衍武.东京城林业局森林水源涵养价值评估[J].内蒙古林业调查设计,2014,37(5):94-96.Xu Y W.The assessment of forest water conservation value of Dongjingcheng Forestry Bureau[J].Inner Mongolia Forestry Investigation and Design,2014,37(5):94--96.
[17]孟宪宇.测树学[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2006.Meng X Y.Forest mensuration[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2006.
[18]刘强,董利虎,李凤日,等.长白落叶松冠层光合作用的空间异质性[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2789--2796.Liu Q,Dong L H,Li F R,et al.Spatial heterogeneity of canopy photosynthesis for Larix olgensis[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(9):2789--2796.
[19]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.Wang J C,Guo Z G.Logistic regression models:methods and application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.
[20]Weiskittel A,Maguire D.Response of branch growth and mortality to silvicultural treatments in coastal Douglas-fir plantations:implications for predicting tree growth[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2007,251:182--194.
[21]苗铮,董利虎,李凤日,等.基于GLMM的人工林红松二级枝条分布数量模拟[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,41(4):121-128.Miao Z,Dong L H,Li F R,et al.Modelling the vertical variation in the number of second order branches of Pinus koraiensis plantation trees through GLMM[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition),2017,41(4):121-128.
[22]宋喜芳,李建平,胡希远.模型选择信息量准则AIC及其在方差分析中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(2):88--92.Song X F,Li J P,Hu X Y.Model selection criterion AIC and its application in ANOVA[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2009,37(2):88--92.
[23]王春红,李凤日,贾炜玮,等.基于非线性混合模型的红松人工林枝条生长[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(7):1945-1952.Wang C H,Li F R,Jia W W,et al.Branch growth of Korean pine plantation based on nonlinear mixed model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(7):1945-1952.
[24]王烁,李凤日,甄贞.白河林业局红松分布数量预估模型[J].东北林业大学学报,2014,42(10):38--43.Wang S,Li F R,Zhen Z.Predicting models of tree distribution of Korean pine in Baihe Forestry Bureau[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2014,42(10):38-43.
[25]王烁,李凤日,赵颖慧,等.基于空间模型的白河林业局天然红松分布[J].北京林业大学学报,2015,37(10):73-85.Wang S,Li F R,Zhao Y H,et al.Distribution of natural Korean pines in Baihe Forestry Bureau based on spatial models[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2015,37(10):73-85.
[26]Heins S,Weiskittel A R.Cutpoint analysis for models with binary outcomes:a case study on branch mortality[J].European Journal of Forest Research,2010,129:585-590.
[27]夏业茂,刘应安,房政.广义Logistic回归模型Bayes分析及其在林木存活率预报中的应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2010,34(2):47-50.Xia Y M,Liu Y A,Fang Z.Bayes analysis for generalized Logistic regression model and its application to forestry survival rate[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition),2010,34(2):47-50.
[28]李凤日,王治富,王保森.落叶松人工林有效冠动态研究(Ⅰ)[J].东北林业大学学报,1996,24(1):1-8.Li F R,Wang Z F,Wang B S.Studies on the effective crown development of Larix olgensis(Ⅰ)[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,1996,24(1):1-8.
[2]姜立春,潘莹,李耀翔.兴安落叶松枝条特征联立方程组模型及树冠形状模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(6):1-7.Jiang L C,Pan Y,Li Y X.Model systems of branch characteristics and crown profile simulation for Larix gmelinii[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2016,38(6):1--7.
[3]贾炜玮.樟子松人工林枝条生长及节子大小预测模型的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2006.Jia W W.Predicting models of branch growth and knot properties for Mongolian scots pine in plantation[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2006.
[4]Kershaw J A,Maguire D A,Hann D W.Longevity and duration of radial growth in Douglas-fir branches[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,1990,20:1690--1695.
[5]Makinen H,Colin F.Predicting the number,death,and selfpruning of branches in Scots pine[J].Canadian Journal of Forest Research,1999,29(8):1225-1236.
[6]康萌萌.广义线性混合模型及其SAS实现[J].统计教育,2009(10):50--54.Kang M M.Generalized linear mixed models and implementation with SAS[J].Statistical Thinktank,2009(10):50--54.
[7]姜立春,李凤日,张锐.基于线性混合模型的落叶松枝条基径模型[J].林业科学研究,2012,25(4):464-469.Jiang L C,Li F R,Zhang R.Modeling branch diameter with linear mixed effects for Dahurian larch[J].Forest Research,2012,25(4):464-469.
[8]姜立春,杜书立,李凤日.基于随机效应的兴安落叶松材积生长模拟[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(11):2963--2969.Jiang L C,Du S L,Li F R.Simulation of Larix gmelinii tree volume growth based on random effect[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(11):2963-2969.
[9]董灵波,刘兆刚,李凤日,等.基于线性混合模型的红松人工林一级枝条大小预测模拟[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(9):2447--2456.Dong L B,Liu Z G,Li F R,et al.Primary branch size of Pinus koraiensis plantation:a prediction based on linear mixed effect model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(9):2447--2456.
[10]王曼霖,董利虎,李凤日.基于Possion回归混合效应模型的长白落叶松一级枝数量模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2017,39(11):45--55.Wang M L,Dong L H,Li F R.First-order branch number simulation for Larix olgensis plantation through Poisson regression mixed effect model[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2017,39(11):45--55.
[11]Hein S,Makinen H,Yue C F,et al.Modelling branch characteristics of Norway spruce from wide spacings in Germany[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2007,242:155-164.
[12]张智昌.落叶松人工林枝条生长与节子大小预测模型的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2010.Zhang Z C.Predicting models of branch growth and knot properties for larch plantation[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2010.
[13]卢军,李凤日.樟子松人工林的节子寿命及年轮丢失数[J].林业科学,2007,43(12):16-21.Lu J,Li F R.Long and missing ring of knots in Pinus sylvertris var.mongolica plantation[J].Science Silvae Sinicae,2007,43(12):16--21.
[14]高瑞馨,尹艳豹,王凤友.黑龙江林口林业局森林景观格局特征[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(7):995--1001.Gao R X,Yin Y B,Wang F Y.Characters of forest landscape patterns in Linkou Forestry Bureau of Heilongjiang Province[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2007,26(7):995-1001.
[15]高瑞馨.林口林业局可持续发展综合评价指标体系研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2004.Gao R X.Research on the comprehensive appraisement index system about sustainable development of the Linkou Forestry Bureau[D].Harbin:Northeast Forestry University,2004.
[16]徐衍武.东京城林业局森林水源涵养价值评估[J].内蒙古林业调查设计,2014,37(5):94-96.Xu Y W.The assessment of forest water conservation value of Dongjingcheng Forestry Bureau[J].Inner Mongolia Forestry Investigation and Design,2014,37(5):94--96.
[17]孟宪宇.测树学[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2006.Meng X Y.Forest mensuration[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2006.
[18]刘强,董利虎,李凤日,等.长白落叶松冠层光合作用的空间异质性[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(9):2789--2796.Liu Q,Dong L H,Li F R,et al.Spatial heterogeneity of canopy photosynthesis for Larix olgensis[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(9):2789--2796.
[19]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.Wang J C,Guo Z G.Logistic regression models:methods and application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.
[20]Weiskittel A,Maguire D.Response of branch growth and mortality to silvicultural treatments in coastal Douglas-fir plantations:implications for predicting tree growth[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2007,251:182--194.
[21]苗铮,董利虎,李凤日,等.基于GLMM的人工林红松二级枝条分布数量模拟[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,41(4):121-128.Miao Z,Dong L H,Li F R,et al.Modelling the vertical variation in the number of second order branches of Pinus koraiensis plantation trees through GLMM[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition),2017,41(4):121-128.
[22]宋喜芳,李建平,胡希远.模型选择信息量准则AIC及其在方差分析中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(2):88--92.Song X F,Li J P,Hu X Y.Model selection criterion AIC and its application in ANOVA[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2009,37(2):88--92.
[23]王春红,李凤日,贾炜玮,等.基于非线性混合模型的红松人工林枝条生长[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(7):1945-1952.Wang C H,Li F R,Jia W W,et al.Branch growth of Korean pine plantation based on nonlinear mixed model[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(7):1945-1952.
[24]王烁,李凤日,甄贞.白河林业局红松分布数量预估模型[J].东北林业大学学报,2014,42(10):38--43.Wang S,Li F R,Zhen Z.Predicting models of tree distribution of Korean pine in Baihe Forestry Bureau[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2014,42(10):38-43.
[25]王烁,李凤日,赵颖慧,等.基于空间模型的白河林业局天然红松分布[J].北京林业大学学报,2015,37(10):73-85.Wang S,Li F R,Zhao Y H,et al.Distribution of natural Korean pines in Baihe Forestry Bureau based on spatial models[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2015,37(10):73-85.
[26]Heins S,Weiskittel A R.Cutpoint analysis for models with binary outcomes:a case study on branch mortality[J].European Journal of Forest Research,2010,129:585-590.
[27]夏业茂,刘应安,房政.广义Logistic回归模型Bayes分析及其在林木存活率预报中的应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2010,34(2):47-50.Xia Y M,Liu Y A,Fang Z.Bayes analysis for generalized Logistic regression model and its application to forestry survival rate[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition),2010,34(2):47-50.
[28]李凤日,王治富,王保森.落叶松人工林有效冠动态研究(Ⅰ)[J].东北林业大学学报,1996,24(1):1-8.Li F R,Wang Z F,Wang B S.Studies on the effective crown development of Larix olgensis(Ⅰ)[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,1996,24(1):1-8.