区域产业结构演变对PM2.5排放的影响机理研究
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摘要
以北京为样本,基于三次产业PM2.5排放数据的研究,对不同层次不同类型结构演变的影响机理进行实证分析。结果表明,区域产业结构演变的减排效应来源于三条路径:调整高能耗部门的直接减排效应;高技术化的工业结构升级产生的间接技术减排效应;以中高技术产业规模增长促使经济增长与PM2.5排放脱钩,产生的规模减排效应。基于样本三种情景下的工业结构演变效应,提出工业化进程中工业结构与PM2.5排放演变的三阶段模型。
Based on the date from Beijing and the research of three industries PM2. 5 emissions data,this paper empirically analyzes the influential Mechanism in the different levels and the different types of structural evolution. Results show that the reduction effect of regional industrial structure evolution is from three paths. The first is adjusting the direct reduction effect of the high energy consuming sectors. Second,high technicalization of industrial structure upgrading encouraged secondary industry to decrease the emissions intensity to produce indirect technical effect. Third,by economic growth of high-tech industry keeping "321"the proportion of industrial structure,economic growth from PM2. 5 emissions decoupled so that produced the indirect scale reduction effect. At the same time,based on sample empirical result of the three scenarios of industrial structure evolution effect,it puts forward three stages evolution model of the industrial structure and the PM2. 5 emissions in the process of industrialization.
Based on the date from Beijing and the research of three industries PM2. 5 emissions data,this paper empirically analyzes the influential Mechanism in the different levels and the different types of structural evolution. Results show that the reduction effect of regional industrial structure evolution is from three paths. The first is adjusting the direct reduction effect of the high energy consuming sectors. Second,high technicalization of industrial structure upgrading encouraged secondary industry to decrease the emissions intensity to produce indirect technical effect. Third,by economic growth of high-tech industry keeping "321"the proportion of industrial structure,economic growth from PM2. 5 emissions decoupled so that produced the indirect scale reduction effect. At the same time,based on sample empirical result of the three scenarios of industrial structure evolution effect,it puts forward three stages evolution model of the industrial structure and the PM2. 5 emissions in the process of industrialization.
引文
[1]LI M,J Pan.Achievements and Challenges:PM2.5 Control in China[J].Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies,2014,2(1):1-15.
[2]Grossman G M,A B Krueger.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement[R].National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,1991.
[3]北京环保监测中心.北京市大气环境PM2.5污染现状及成因研究[EB/OL].http://bjwb.bjd.com.cn,2015-1-25.
[4]齐园,张永安.北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(7):15-23.
[5]张伟,王韶华.产业结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析[J].软科学,2013(8):46-49.
[6]Zhang Y J,Z Liu,H Zhang,et al.The Impact of Economic Growth,Industrial Structure and Urbanization on Carbon Emission Intensity in China[J].Natural Hazards,2014,73(2):579-595.
[7]肖挺,刘华.产业结构调整与节能减排问题的实证研究[J].经济学家,2014(9):58-68.
[8]朱妮,张艳芳.陕西省能源消费结构、产业结构演变对碳排放强度的冲击影响分析[J].干旱区地理,2015(4):843-850.
[9]Wang Z,L Yang.Delinking Indicators on Regional Industry Development and Carbon Emissions:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Band Case[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,48:41-48.
[10]鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2013(4):106-118.
[11]王云.低碳经济“脱钩”量化分解模型研究——基于IPAT方程的分析[J].经济问题,2012(5):8-13.
[12]Lewis W A.Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour[J].Caribbean Economic Review,1954(2):139-191.
[13]Maddison A.Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies:Techniques of Quantitative Assessment[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1987,25(2):649-698.
[14]于峰.环境库兹涅茨曲线研究回顾与评析[J].经济问题探索,2006(8):4-12.
[15]张永安,邬龙.北京经济发展中PM2.5排放的驱动因素研究[J].生产力研究,2014(11):57-60.
[16]Chenery H B,S Robinson,M Syrquin.Industrialization and Growth:A Comparative Study[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1986.
[17]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组.“十二五”时期工业结构调整和优化升级研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1):5-23.
[18]Hoffmann W G.The Growth of Industrial Economies[M].Translated by Henderson W O,and W H Chaloner Manchester University Press,1958.
[19]Grossman G M,A B Kruege.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[20]Kirner E,G Lay,S Kinkel,et al.The Relevance of Services for High-Medium-Low tech Firms—An Empirical Analysis in German Industry[A].Hirsch-kreinsen H,Jacobson D.Innovation in Low-Tech Firms and Industrise[C].UK:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2008.175-193.
[21]Yin R F.Defining Standards of High,Medium and Low-tech Industries[EB/OL].http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/search/searchresult.jsp?newsearch=true&query Text=Defining Standards of High,Medium and Low-tech Industries,2011-8-10.
[22]朱永彬,刘昌新,王铮,等.我国产业结构演变趋势及其减排潜力分析[J].中国软科学,2013(2):35-42.
[23]Han L J,Zhou W Q,et al.Impact of Urbanization Level on Urban Air Quality:A Case of Fine Particles(PM2.5)in Chinese Cities[J].Environmental Pollution,2014,194:163-170.
[24]Guan D,X Su,et al.The Socioeconomic Drivers of China's Primary PM2.5 Emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014(9):1-9.
[25]李强,魏巍,徐康宁.技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(10):64-67.
[26]吴巧生,成金华.中国能源消耗强度变动及因素分解:1980-2004[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006(10):34-40.
[27]Greening L A,W B Davis,L Schipper,et al.Comparison of Six Decomposition Methods:Application to Aggregate Energy Intensity for Manufacturing in 10 OECD Countries[J].Energy Economics,1997,19(3):375-390.
[28]W Fei,Suocheng D,Qiliang M,et al.Evolution of Regional Industrial Structure and Characteristics of Pollution Emissions in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2014,5(1):60-67.
[29]Ou Yang X,B Lin.An Analysis of the Driving Forces of EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China's Industrial Sector[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,45:838-849.
[30]Ang B W,F Q Zhang,K H Choi.Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators through Decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[31]牛鸿蕾,江可申.产业结构调整的低碳效应测度——基于NSGA-Ⅱ遗传算法[J].产业经济研究,2012(1):62-69,94.
[32]陈永国,褚尚军,聂锐.我国产业结构与碳排放强度的演进关系——基于“开口P型曲线”的解释[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013(2):54-59.
[33]田鹏,贺涛,华璐,等.霾国求治:1月北京仅5天不是雾霾天[EB/OL].http://style.sina.com.cn/news/P/2013-02-10/0133116139.shtml,2013-2-10.
[34]李东军,张辉.北京市产业结构与经济增长的关系及原因分析[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(2):148-153.
(1)《大气污染防治行动计划实施情况考核办法实施细则(试行)》。
(1)GB/T 4754-2011。
(1)Hoffman两部门划分同杨海军等(2008)一样处理,采取统计年鉴中的轻工业和重工业部门划分替代;Grossman的三要素部门划分根据国家统计局对高能耗(资源)行业的分类,以及《高技术产业(制造业)分类(2013)(国统字[2013]55号)》标准对高技术产业的定义,对唐德才(2009)划分的劳动、资本和技术密集型工业部门的分类结果进行修改;技术密集程度不同部门划分根据郭克莎(2003)、孙赵勇(2008)的研究结果,参考《高技术产业统计分类目录》,将工业结构按照技术密集程度进行划分。上述三种工业结构划分具体部门由于篇幅原因未详列,可与作者联系索要。
(2)北京统计局颁发(京统发[2005]81号)。
(1)Yt=βt+PijXij+PikXik(i=1,2,3)为明确不同类型产业结构演变的主导因素,本文设置三次产业结构变量Xlj为第三与第二产业增加值之比,第二产业比重;工业结构演变变量X2j为高与低技术部门增加值之比,中高(含高)与中低(含低)技术部门增加值之比,低技术工业部门比重;资本与资源部门增加值之比,资源工业部门比重;工业重与轻工业部门增加值之比,重工业部门比重;第三产业结构演变变量X3j为现代服务业与流通业增加值之比,流通业比重。Xik(i=1,2,3)分别为三次产业、第二产业、第三产业的增加值、排放强度(单位产值PM2.5排放量)、能源消费总量、煤炭消费总量、能源消费结构、能源强度(单位产值消耗能源量)。
(2)限于篇幅,结果未列详尽,可与作者索要。
[2]Grossman G M,A B Krueger.Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement[R].National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,1991.
[3]北京环保监测中心.北京市大气环境PM2.5污染现状及成因研究[EB/OL].http://bjwb.bjd.com.cn,2015-1-25.
[4]齐园,张永安.北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(7):15-23.
[5]张伟,王韶华.产业结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析[J].软科学,2013(8):46-49.
[6]Zhang Y J,Z Liu,H Zhang,et al.The Impact of Economic Growth,Industrial Structure and Urbanization on Carbon Emission Intensity in China[J].Natural Hazards,2014,73(2):579-595.
[7]肖挺,刘华.产业结构调整与节能减排问题的实证研究[J].经济学家,2014(9):58-68.
[8]朱妮,张艳芳.陕西省能源消费结构、产业结构演变对碳排放强度的冲击影响分析[J].干旱区地理,2015(4):843-850.
[9]Wang Z,L Yang.Delinking Indicators on Regional Industry Development and Carbon Emissions:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Band Case[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,48:41-48.
[10]鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2013(4):106-118.
[11]王云.低碳经济“脱钩”量化分解模型研究——基于IPAT方程的分析[J].经济问题,2012(5):8-13.
[12]Lewis W A.Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour[J].Caribbean Economic Review,1954(2):139-191.
[13]Maddison A.Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies:Techniques of Quantitative Assessment[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1987,25(2):649-698.
[14]于峰.环境库兹涅茨曲线研究回顾与评析[J].经济问题探索,2006(8):4-12.
[15]张永安,邬龙.北京经济发展中PM2.5排放的驱动因素研究[J].生产力研究,2014(11):57-60.
[16]Chenery H B,S Robinson,M Syrquin.Industrialization and Growth:A Comparative Study[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1986.
[17]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组.“十二五”时期工业结构调整和优化升级研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1):5-23.
[18]Hoffmann W G.The Growth of Industrial Economies[M].Translated by Henderson W O,and W H Chaloner Manchester University Press,1958.
[19]Grossman G M,A B Kruege.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[20]Kirner E,G Lay,S Kinkel,et al.The Relevance of Services for High-Medium-Low tech Firms—An Empirical Analysis in German Industry[A].Hirsch-kreinsen H,Jacobson D.Innovation in Low-Tech Firms and Industrise[C].UK:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2008.175-193.
[21]Yin R F.Defining Standards of High,Medium and Low-tech Industries[EB/OL].http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/search/searchresult.jsp?newsearch=true&query Text=Defining Standards of High,Medium and Low-tech Industries,2011-8-10.
[22]朱永彬,刘昌新,王铮,等.我国产业结构演变趋势及其减排潜力分析[J].中国软科学,2013(2):35-42.
[23]Han L J,Zhou W Q,et al.Impact of Urbanization Level on Urban Air Quality:A Case of Fine Particles(PM2.5)in Chinese Cities[J].Environmental Pollution,2014,194:163-170.
[24]Guan D,X Su,et al.The Socioeconomic Drivers of China's Primary PM2.5 Emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014(9):1-9.
[25]李强,魏巍,徐康宁.技术进步和结构调整对能源消费回弹效应的估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(10):64-67.
[26]吴巧生,成金华.中国能源消耗强度变动及因素分解:1980-2004[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006(10):34-40.
[27]Greening L A,W B Davis,L Schipper,et al.Comparison of Six Decomposition Methods:Application to Aggregate Energy Intensity for Manufacturing in 10 OECD Countries[J].Energy Economics,1997,19(3):375-390.
[28]W Fei,Suocheng D,Qiliang M,et al.Evolution of Regional Industrial Structure and Characteristics of Pollution Emissions in China[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2014,5(1):60-67.
[29]Ou Yang X,B Lin.An Analysis of the Driving Forces of EnergyRelated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China's Industrial Sector[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,45:838-849.
[30]Ang B W,F Q Zhang,K H Choi.Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators through Decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[31]牛鸿蕾,江可申.产业结构调整的低碳效应测度——基于NSGA-Ⅱ遗传算法[J].产业经济研究,2012(1):62-69,94.
[32]陈永国,褚尚军,聂锐.我国产业结构与碳排放强度的演进关系——基于“开口P型曲线”的解释[J].河北经贸大学学报,2013(2):54-59.
[33]田鹏,贺涛,华璐,等.霾国求治:1月北京仅5天不是雾霾天[EB/OL].http://style.sina.com.cn/news/P/2013-02-10/0133116139.shtml,2013-2-10.
[34]李东军,张辉.北京市产业结构与经济增长的关系及原因分析[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(2):148-153.
(1)《大气污染防治行动计划实施情况考核办法实施细则(试行)》。
(1)GB/T 4754-2011。
(1)Hoffman两部门划分同杨海军等(2008)一样处理,采取统计年鉴中的轻工业和重工业部门划分替代;Grossman的三要素部门划分根据国家统计局对高能耗(资源)行业的分类,以及《高技术产业(制造业)分类(2013)(国统字[2013]55号)》标准对高技术产业的定义,对唐德才(2009)划分的劳动、资本和技术密集型工业部门的分类结果进行修改;技术密集程度不同部门划分根据郭克莎(2003)、孙赵勇(2008)的研究结果,参考《高技术产业统计分类目录》,将工业结构按照技术密集程度进行划分。上述三种工业结构划分具体部门由于篇幅原因未详列,可与作者联系索要。
(2)北京统计局颁发(京统发[2005]81号)。
(1)Yt=βt+PijXij+PikXik(i=1,2,3)为明确不同类型产业结构演变的主导因素,本文设置三次产业结构变量Xlj为第三与第二产业增加值之比,第二产业比重;工业结构演变变量X2j为高与低技术部门增加值之比,中高(含高)与中低(含低)技术部门增加值之比,低技术工业部门比重;资本与资源部门增加值之比,资源工业部门比重;工业重与轻工业部门增加值之比,重工业部门比重;第三产业结构演变变量X3j为现代服务业与流通业增加值之比,流通业比重。Xik(i=1,2,3)分别为三次产业、第二产业、第三产业的增加值、排放强度(单位产值PM2.5排放量)、能源消费总量、煤炭消费总量、能源消费结构、能源强度(单位产值消耗能源量)。
(2)限于篇幅,结果未列详尽,可与作者索要。