人口老龄化对居民家庭投资风险偏好的影响
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摘要
人口老龄化下退休者对退休金和子女的依赖度下降,工作期间的资产积累和资产回报对未来养老安全的重要性提升。不同风险的投资产品具有不同的回报率,居民投资风险偏好将直接决定居民投资行为偏好和投资产品组合需求,进而影响资产回报。文章利用2011年中国家庭金融资产调查数据,采用有序Logistic回归模型实证分析了年龄对居民风险偏好的影响。研究结果表明,处于不同生命周期的人群投资风险偏好不同。年龄与居民风险偏好呈现单调关系,随着居民年龄的增长其风险偏好程度逐渐下降。人口老龄化将降低居民总体投资风险偏好度,从而影响未来投资市场的供给和需求特征,最终降低资本市场的回报率。最后,文章对我国的养老安全提出了政策建议。
With population aging, there is a decline of retirees' dependence on pension and their children, while the accumulation of assets and the return of assets during the work period become more important for their future pension security. Investment products at different risks have various capital return rates. Residents' investment risk preference will directly decide residents' investment behavior preferences and portfolio demand, and therefore affect the returns of asset in the future. Using the survey data of 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey, this paper empirically analyses the influence of age on the risk preference of residents by establishing a series of ordered logistic regression models. The results show that the investment risk preference during different life cycles is different, and the risk preference of the residents gradually decreases with age. Population ageing will reduce the overall investment risk preference and develop a low return rate through adjusting the supply and demand of the future investment market. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications.
With population aging, there is a decline of retirees' dependence on pension and their children, while the accumulation of assets and the return of assets during the work period become more important for their future pension security. Investment products at different risks have various capital return rates. Residents' investment risk preference will directly decide residents' investment behavior preferences and portfolio demand, and therefore affect the returns of asset in the future. Using the survey data of 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey, this paper empirically analyses the influence of age on the risk preference of residents by establishing a series of ordered logistic regression models. The results show that the investment risk preference during different life cycles is different, and the risk preference of the residents gradually decreases with age. Population ageing will reduce the overall investment risk preference and develop a low return rate through adjusting the supply and demand of the future investment market. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications.
引文
1 Anna S D H, Gutter M S and Fan J X. 2001.A Measure of Risk Tolerance Based on Economic Theory. Journal of Financial Counseling & Planning 2.
2 Arano K, Parker C and Terry R.2010. Gender-based Risk Aversion and Retirement Asset Allocation. Economic Inquiry 1:147-155.
3 Bakshi G S, Chen Z. and Baby Boom.1994. Population Aging, and Capital Markets. Journal of Business 2:165-202.
4 Brick K and Burns J.2012.Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence from South African Fishing Communities. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 94:133-152.
5 Cohn A, Engelmann J and Fehr E, et al.2013. Evidence for Countercyclical Risk Aversion: An Experiment with Financial Professionals. UBS Center-Working Papers 2:860-885.
6 Dohmen T, Falk A and Huffman D, et al.2010.Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability? American Economic Review 3:1238-1260.
7 Friend I and Blume M E.1975.The Demand for Risky Asset. American Economic Review 5:900-922.
8 Guiso L, Sapienza P and Zingales L.2013. Time Varying Risk Aversion. Cepr Discussion Papers 2 :432-441.
9 Halek M and Eisenhauer J G.2001. The Demography of Risk Aversion. Journal of Risk & Insurance 1:1-24.
10 Heinemann F. 2005. Measuring Risk Aversion and the Wealth Effect. Research in Experimental Economics 12:293-313.
11 Jianakoplos N A and Bernasek A.1998. Are Women More Risk Averse? Economic Inquiry 4:620-630.
12 Jr R W B and Victor C.1992. Asset Allocation and Individual Risk Aversion. Financial Analysts Journal 6:32-37.
13 Mather M, Mazar N and Gorlick M A, et al.2012. Risk Preferences and Aging: The “Certainty Effect” in Older Adults’ Decision Making. Psychol Aging 4:801-816.
14 Mcinish T H, Ramaswami S N and Srivastava R K.1993. Do More Risk-Averse Investors Have Lower Net Worth and Income? Financial Review 1:91-106.
15 Morin R A and Suarez A F.1983. Risk Aversion Revisited. Journal of Finance 4:1201-1216.
16 O’Sullivan M, Jones D K, Summers P E, et al.2001. Evidence for Cortical “Disconnection” as a Mechanism of Age-related Cognitive Decline. Neurology 4:632-638.
17 P?lsson A M.1996. Does the Degree of Relative Risk Aversion Vary with Household Characteristics? Journal of Economic Psychology 6 :771-787.
18 Pierre-André Chiappori and Paiella M. 2011.Relative Risk Aversion is Constant: Evidence From Pannel Data. Journal of the European Economic Association 6:1021-1052.
19 Salthouse T A.2009.When Does Age-related Cognitive Decline Begin? Neurobiology of Aging 4:507-514.
20 Schooley D K and Worden D D.1996. Risk Aversion Measures: Comparing Attitudes and Asset Allocation. Financial Services Review 2:87-99.
21 Sundén A E and Surette B J. 1998.Gender Differences in the Allocation of Assets in Retirement Savings Plans. American Economic Review 12:207-211.
22 Sung J, Hanna S.1996. Factors Related to Risk Tolerance. Journal of Financial Counseling & Planning 7:11-19.
23 USGA Office.2006.Baby Boom Generation: Retirement of Baby Boomers is Unlikely to Precipitate Dramatic Decline in Market Returns,but Broader Risks Threaten Retirement Security. Available at: https://www.gao.gov/assets/260/250907.pdf
24 Wang H and Hanna S.1998.Does Risk Tolerance Decrease with Age? Journal of Financial Counseling & Planning 2.
25 Watson J.2007. Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Expected Retirement Benefits. Financial Analysts Journal 4:52-62.
26 Wolfgang Breuer, Michael Riesener and Astrid Juliane Salzmann.2014. Risk Aversion vs. Individualism: What Drives Risk Taking in Household Finance? European Journal of Finance 5:446-462.
27 陈其进,陈华. 中国居民个体风险态度及影响因素分析——基于城镇居民、农民工和农村居民的对比研究. 上海经济研究,2014;12:78-89Chen Qijin and Chen Hua. 2014. Individual Risk Attitude and Its Determinants in China: Based on the Comparison Among Urban Locals, Rural Migrants, and Rural Locals. Shanghai Journal of Economics 12:78-89.
28 马莉莉,李泉. 中国投资者的风险偏好. 统计研究,2011;8:63-72Ma Lili and Li Quan.2011.Chinese Investors’ Risk Preferences. Statistical Research 8:63-72.
29 易祯,朱超. 人口结构与金融市场风险结构:风险厌恶的生命周期时变特征. 经济研究,2017;9:150-164Yi Zhen and Zhu Chao.2017.Demographic Structure and Financial Market Risk Structure: Time-variant Risk Aversion in the Life Cycle. Economic Research Journal 9:150-164.
2 Arano K, Parker C and Terry R.2010. Gender-based Risk Aversion and Retirement Asset Allocation. Economic Inquiry 1:147-155.
3 Bakshi G S, Chen Z. and Baby Boom.1994. Population Aging, and Capital Markets. Journal of Business 2:165-202.
4 Brick K and Burns J.2012.Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence from South African Fishing Communities. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 94:133-152.
5 Cohn A, Engelmann J and Fehr E, et al.2013. Evidence for Countercyclical Risk Aversion: An Experiment with Financial Professionals. UBS Center-Working Papers 2:860-885.
6 Dohmen T, Falk A and Huffman D, et al.2010.Are Risk Aversion and Impatience Related to Cognitive Ability? American Economic Review 3:1238-1260.
7 Friend I and Blume M E.1975.The Demand for Risky Asset. American Economic Review 5:900-922.
8 Guiso L, Sapienza P and Zingales L.2013. Time Varying Risk Aversion. Cepr Discussion Papers 2 :432-441.
9 Halek M and Eisenhauer J G.2001. The Demography of Risk Aversion. Journal of Risk & Insurance 1:1-24.
10 Heinemann F. 2005. Measuring Risk Aversion and the Wealth Effect. Research in Experimental Economics 12:293-313.
11 Jianakoplos N A and Bernasek A.1998. Are Women More Risk Averse? Economic Inquiry 4:620-630.
12 Jr R W B and Victor C.1992. Asset Allocation and Individual Risk Aversion. Financial Analysts Journal 6:32-37.
13 Mather M, Mazar N and Gorlick M A, et al.2012. Risk Preferences and Aging: The “Certainty Effect” in Older Adults’ Decision Making. Psychol Aging 4:801-816.
14 Mcinish T H, Ramaswami S N and Srivastava R K.1993. Do More Risk-Averse Investors Have Lower Net Worth and Income? Financial Review 1:91-106.
15 Morin R A and Suarez A F.1983. Risk Aversion Revisited. Journal of Finance 4:1201-1216.
16 O’Sullivan M, Jones D K, Summers P E, et al.2001. Evidence for Cortical “Disconnection” as a Mechanism of Age-related Cognitive Decline. Neurology 4:632-638.
17 P?lsson A M.1996. Does the Degree of Relative Risk Aversion Vary with Household Characteristics? Journal of Economic Psychology 6 :771-787.
18 Pierre-André Chiappori and Paiella M. 2011.Relative Risk Aversion is Constant: Evidence From Pannel Data. Journal of the European Economic Association 6:1021-1052.
19 Salthouse T A.2009.When Does Age-related Cognitive Decline Begin? Neurobiology of Aging 4:507-514.
20 Schooley D K and Worden D D.1996. Risk Aversion Measures: Comparing Attitudes and Asset Allocation. Financial Services Review 2:87-99.
21 Sundén A E and Surette B J. 1998.Gender Differences in the Allocation of Assets in Retirement Savings Plans. American Economic Review 12:207-211.
22 Sung J, Hanna S.1996. Factors Related to Risk Tolerance. Journal of Financial Counseling & Planning 7:11-19.
23 USGA Office.2006.Baby Boom Generation: Retirement of Baby Boomers is Unlikely to Precipitate Dramatic Decline in Market Returns,but Broader Risks Threaten Retirement Security. Available at: https://www.gao.gov/assets/260/250907.pdf
24 Wang H and Hanna S.1998.Does Risk Tolerance Decrease with Age? Journal of Financial Counseling & Planning 2.
25 Watson J.2007. Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Expected Retirement Benefits. Financial Analysts Journal 4:52-62.
26 Wolfgang Breuer, Michael Riesener and Astrid Juliane Salzmann.2014. Risk Aversion vs. Individualism: What Drives Risk Taking in Household Finance? European Journal of Finance 5:446-462.
27 陈其进,陈华. 中国居民个体风险态度及影响因素分析——基于城镇居民、农民工和农村居民的对比研究. 上海经济研究,2014;12:78-89Chen Qijin and Chen Hua. 2014. Individual Risk Attitude and Its Determinants in China: Based on the Comparison Among Urban Locals, Rural Migrants, and Rural Locals. Shanghai Journal of Economics 12:78-89.
28 马莉莉,李泉. 中国投资者的风险偏好. 统计研究,2011;8:63-72Ma Lili and Li Quan.2011.Chinese Investors’ Risk Preferences. Statistical Research 8:63-72.
29 易祯,朱超. 人口结构与金融市场风险结构:风险厌恶的生命周期时变特征. 经济研究,2017;9:150-164Yi Zhen and Zhu Chao.2017.Demographic Structure and Financial Market Risk Structure: Time-variant Risk Aversion in the Life Cycle. Economic Research Journal 9:150-164.